How the Electoral College Could Tilt Further From Democrats

[uncmba]

From the NY Times:
The year is 2032. Studying the Electoral College map, a Democratic presidential candidate can no longer plan to sweep New Hampshire, Minnesota and the “blue wall” battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and win the White House. A victory in the swing state of Nevada would not help, either.

That is the nightmare scenario many Democratic Party insiders see playing out if current U.S. population projections hold. After every decennial census, like the one coming up in 2030, congressional seats are reallocated among the states based on population shifts. Those seats in turn affect how big a prize each state is within the Electoral College — or how a candidate actually wins the presidency.

In the next decade, the Electoral College will tilt significantly away from Democrats.


Deeply conservative Texas and Florida could gain a total of five congressional seats, and the red states of Utah and Idaho are each expected to add a seat.

Those gains will come at the expense of major Democratic states like New York and California, according to a New York Times analysis of population projections by Esri, a nonpartisan company whose mapping software and demographic data are widely used by businesses and governments across the world.

How the Electoral College Could Tilt Further From Democrats Amid Redistricting and Population Shifts

With red states growing fast, the Democratic Party will have a tough path to the White House without making more states competitive, according to a New York Times analysis.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Ramrouser]

Competition works. Red states are implementing polices and establishing business environments that are attracting businesses and labor. It's a decade + long trend although COVID clearly was an accelerator. You now see it with Southern Universities attracting students as well.

 

[dukeman92]

The EC has LONG outlived its usefulness. It's patently moronic that the lives of people halfway around the world hinge on the whims of the people of Wisconsin every four years.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

This is the kind of lame panicky hand-wringing shit the Times shovels on the reg now.

 

[superrific]

Competition works. Red states are implementing polices and establishing business environments that are attracting businesses and labor. It's a decade + long trend although COVID clearly was an accelerator. You now see it with Southern Universities attracting students as well.

They are attracting retirees, dumbass. All the best universities are in the North or West, without exception. Sorry guys, UNC is a great university but it's not as good as U of M or Berkeley. And Duke is fine but it ain't no Hahvahd.

 

[gregh1]

From the NY Times:
The year is 2032. Studying the Electoral College map, a Democratic presidential candidate can no longer plan to sweep New Hampshire, Minnesota and the “blue wall” battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and win the White House. A victory in the swing state of Nevada would not help, either.

That is the nightmare scenario many Democratic Party insiders see playing out if current U.S. population projections hold. After every decennial census, like the one coming up in 2030, congressional seats are reallocated among the states based on population shifts. Those seats in turn affect how big a prize each state is within the Electoral College — or how a candidate actually wins the presidency.

In the next decade, the Electoral College will tilt significantly away from Democrats.


Deeply conservative Texas and Florida could gain a total of five congressional seats, and the red states of Utah and Idaho are each expected to add a seat.

Those gains will come at the expense of major Democratic states like New York and California, according to a New York Times analysis of population projections by Esri, a nonpartisan company whose mapping software and demographic data are widely used by businesses and governments across the world.

How the Electoral College Could Tilt Further From Democrats Amid Redistricting and Population Shifts

With red states growing fast, the Democratic Party will have a tough path to the White House without making more states competitive, according to a New York Times analysis.

www.nytimes.com

Generally people aren't moving to rural areas, they are moving to cities, but the cities are gerrymandered to the point that even if the newcomers are more liberal it won't help.

Dems are screwed. The only option is to appease the masses better.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

They are attracting retirees, dumbass. All the best universities are in the North or West, without exception. Sorry guys, UNC is a great university but it's not as good as U of M or Berkeley. And Duke is fine but it ain't no Hahvahd.

Dumb hill to die on- uva, UT Austin, GaTech, UNC, UF are all great universities. Parsing relatively quality is a mug’s game.

 

[Ramrouser]

Keep thinking only retirees are relocating to the South (whistling past the graveyard much?). In five years or so you could see Wall Street completely relocate to Miami or Dallas, particularly if Mamdani is elected Mayor.

Yes, the North (and far West) have great universities (the South started waay behind due to Reconstruction, Jim Crow and lack of air conditioning) but many trendlines are now favoring Southern Universities from VA to TX.

 

[akillesheel]

Competition works. Red states are implementing polices and establishing business environments that are attracting businesses and labor. It's a decade + long trend although COVID clearly was an accelerator. You now see it with Southern Universities attracting students as well.

you keep saying this about southern universities as if places like UNC, UT, GT, and UF haven't been known and celebrated as liberal/progressive oases in hostile environs for literal decades. people are going to them in increasing numbers exactly not because they're in red states, and in many of their cases, the redness of their states appears to be actively trying to hijack their quality and reputation - as discussed on another thread here.

 

[Ramrouser]

you keep saying this about southern universities as if places like UNC, UT, GT, and UF haven't been known and celebrated as liberal/progressive oases in hostile environs for literal decades. people are going to them in increasing numbers exactly not because they're in red states, and in many of their cases, the redness of their states appears to be actively trying to hijack their quality and reputation - as discussed on another thread here.

I'm also referring to schools like Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss and other universities that are vastly improving due to the influx of out of state students who are attracted to the schools. These students are bringing in tons of cash for these universities which is improving the academic quality of those schools. Schools like, Alabama and Ole Miss are now 50% out of state students. They aren't at the level of UNC and the schools you name but the improvement in the last 20 years is amazing.

A lot of these out of state students in these deep red states will remain in state after graduation further exacerbating the shift in population towards the South.

 

[Centerpiece]

I wish I could pull a Rumpelstiltskin and not wake up for 15 years... And then when I saw the shit-hole country I was living in, I'd be like: "WTF happened?" And they would be like: "Well, we had this shit-head president and he fucked up everything..."
Of course I'd still be living in a shit-hole, but at least I wouldn't have actually been AWAKE during all that time when the shit was going down.

 

[mpaer]

Competition works. Red states are implementing polices and establishing business environments that are attracting businesses and labor. It's a decade + long trend although COVID clearly was an accelerator. You now see it with Southern Universities attracting students as well.

Nc has Looong been friendly to business A growing State

Competition works. Red states are implementing polices and establishing business environments that are attracting businesses and labor. It's a decade + long trend although COVID clearly was an accelerator. You now see it with Southern Universities attracting students as well.

How are their policies attractive to Labor?
No Unions-so lower wages Lower tax -so schools suck. EPA -LOL-so pollution nightmares
Now I agree there are jobs

 

[heelinhell]

The question is how will gains in Southern states impact elections ? I would think it would depend upon the cohorts.

Urban vs rural folks
Affluent vs less affluent folks
Younger vs older folks
Earth 1 vs earth 2 folks

I'm suggesting there is a possibility that folks relocating to Southern states could tilt those red states to purplish states

 

[aGDevil2k]

Time to introduce the "New Democrats" and start winning southern and midwestern states again.

 

[rodoheel]

Competition works. Red states are implementing polices and establishing business environments that are attracting businesses and labor. It's a decade + long trend although COVID clearly was an accelerator.

The main reason people have been moving to red states is that they are cheaper to live in. Some of that may be "race to the bottom"-style tax cutting, but a lot of the reason those places are cheaper to live in is not necessarily a positive.

 

[wmheel1287]

As if there is going to be a Presidential election in 2032...

 

[Ramrouser]

The main reason people have been moving to red states is that they are cheaper to live in. Some of that may be "race to the bottom"-style tax cutting, but a lot of the reason those places are cheaper to live in is not necessarily a positive.

I think that may have been true in the 1970s but it's hard to convince me that people are racing to the bottom when they relocate from Illinois or Michigan to Nashville, Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville, Miami, etc. The data suggests better taxes, more affordable housing and better employment opportunities.

 

[eternalheel]

Generally people aren't moving to rural areas, they are moving to cities, but the cities are gerrymandered to the point that even if the newcomers are more liberal it won't help.

Dems are screwed. The only option is to appease the masses better.

Expound on appease the masses.

 

[Ramrouser]

The question is how will gains in Southern states impact elections ? I would think it would depend upon the cohorts

I'm suggesting there is a possibility that folks relocating to Southern states could tilt those red states to purplish states

That's the worry (from my perspective). You've seen that in Atlanta and Charlotte but not so much anymore in Florida.

 

[rodoheel]

I think that may have been true in the 1970s but it's hard to convince me that people are racing to the bottom when they relocate from Illinois or Michigan to Nashville, Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville, Miami, etc. The data suggests better taxes, more affordable housing and better employment opportunities.

"Race to the bottom" does not refer to people racing to the bottom it refers to states racing to the bottom by constantly slashing taxes and regulations in an attempt to make themselves "friendly" to business and/or residents. I understand that conservatives are likely to see tax-cutting and removal of regulatory barriers as a positive policy change, which is your right; but in general I don't think that sort of "competition" will be a net good for our society in the end, at least if you like things like public education, public infrastructure, etc.

But again: the main point is that the migratory patterns are very simple for most people: leaving aside retirees, who have their own set of motivations, people who live in more expensive areas are moving to less expensive areas. And while taxes have something to do with it, for the most part places are less expensive because they are less desirable to live.