Hubert Davis Catch-all

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finesse said:
I wouldn't bet on any team in the country to be a 1 or 2 seed next year. What kind of sucker bet is that?
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OK then make the question more general - do you think UNC has a reasonable chance at a 1/2 seed next year? If so why?
 
rodoheel said:
I'm just talking about the last 5 seasons, since Hubert has been here, which roughly coincides with the "wide open NIL/portal" era.

In that time, those programs I listed have earned the following NCAAT seeds (last one, for this year, is just assumed based on current projection from Bracket Matrix):

  • Duke 2, 5, 4, 1, 1
  • Purdue: 3, 1, 1, 4, 2
  • Arizona: 1, 2, 2, 4, 1
  • UConn: 5, 4, 1, 8, 1
  • Houston: 5, 1, 1, 1, 2
These terms are earning top 5 seeds, often 1 or 2 seeds, every year (or almost every year in UConn's case - and of course they won two titles in this stretch). Like UNC used to do fairly consistently as well. That, to me, is the sign of an elite program; despite having a lot of roster turnover every year, they are consistently putting a top 10, or at worst top 20, team on the court.

How are they doing that, when UNC cannot, in an era of such heavy roster turnover? Do they have advantages that we can't hope to match? If not, how can we get to the point where we're doing the same thing?
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Duke Arizona Purdue and Houston have zero natties in that time. Houston threw one away last year. Lost at home Saturday as 7 point fav and lost last night to a team we beat. Point is everyone has warts.
 
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heel79 said:
Duke Arizona Purdue and Houston have zero natties in that time. Houston threw one away last year. Lost at home Saturday as 7 point fav and lost last night to a team we beat. Point is everyone has warts.
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Man, just answer the questions. You guys are dissembling and diverting instead of confronting the actual question I'm trying to pose. Natty or not, there is no genuine debate that the five programs I listed have been more successful - and more consistently successful - then us over the past five seasons. (Just like there was no debate that UNC was still one of the elite programs in college bball when we went 10 years between 1982 and 1993 without winning a title, and making only one FF.) Why have those programs been better than us recently, and how do we get back to the point when other programs are trying to be like us? That's what I'm trying to discuss.
 
rodoheel said:
OK then make the question more general - do you think UNC has a reasonable chance at a 1/2 seed next year? If so why?
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No..because we don't know roster. When dean and roy built programs, they recruited talent, developed it and knew from one year to next basically what teams would look like. My guess if you were Houston fan you would be pissed that they gave away a natty and as former no. ,1 now has one less loss than UNC.
 
heel79 said:
Duke Arizona Purdue and Houston have zero natties in that time. Houston threw one away last year. Lost at home Saturday as 7 point fav and lost last night to a team we beat. Point is everyone has warts.
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The point is they have been more consistent overall than Carolina in this era.
 
rodoheel said:
OK then make the question more general - do you think UNC has a reasonable chance at a 1/2 seed next year? If so why?
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That's still a totally unreasonable bet. I wouldn't bet on any specific team to be a 1 or 2 seed on the first day of the season next year even if all the rosters were complete. It would be a sucker bet then and damned sure would be now. Are you really that math challenged?
 
finesse said:
That's still a totally unreasonable bet. I wouldn't bet on any specific team to be a 1 or 2 seed on the first day of the season next year even if all the rosters were complete. It would be a sucker bet then and damned sure would be now. Are you really that math challenged?
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Dude I just changed the question because you already made that point, and you just said the same thing over again. You're just being difficult on purpose. Do you think UNC is likely to be better next year than this year? If so why?

Or better yet go back and answer the questions I posed before. Why do you think Hubert is the right guy to lead the program moving forward? It's not a trick question. I'm genuinely interested in knowing what you think.
 
heel79 said:
No..because we don't know roster. When dean and roy built programs, they recruited talent, developed it and knew from one year to next basically what teams would look like. My guess if you were Houston fan you would be pissed that they gave away a natty and as former no. ,1 now has one less loss than UNC.
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If you wouldn't trade our last five years for Houston's last five years in a heartbeat you are out of your mind. Kelvin Sampson is playing by the same rules we are. And Houston doesn't have a B10 or SEC media rights deal throwing them gobs of money. So what gives? Why are they a top 10 team every season, playing in the same NIL wild west we are?
 
CarolinaFever said:
The point is they have been more consistent overall than Carolina in this era.
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Which has arbitrarily been determined to be five years. That's not actually a long enough period to establish a real consistency. A trend, yes but you don't have to go back very far to see that consistency is relatively recent except for Duke.
 
rodoheel said:
If you wouldn't trade our last five years for Houston's last five years in a heartbeat you are out of your mind. Kelvin Sampson is playing by the same rules we are. And Houston doesn't have a B10 or SEC media rights deal throwing them gobs of money. So what gives? Why are they a top 10 team every season, playing in the same NIL wild west we are?
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Can UNC land Kelvin Sampson?
 
rodoheel said:
Dude I just changed the question because you already made that point, and you just said the same thing over again. You're just being difficult on purpose. Do you think UNC is likely to be better next year than this year? If so why?

Or better yet go back and answer the questions I posed before. Why do you think Hubert is the right guy to lead the program moving forward? It's not a trick question. I'm genuinely interested in knowing what you think.
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I'm being difficult because you're asking absolutely idiotic questions offensive to anyone who has the remotest understanding of probabilities. As a fervent participant, sometimes in world class competition, of a game that primarily involves such, offends me. It's worse when you think you fixed it by slightly altering the improbability and acting like you condescended to me. I obviously didn't make the point when you missed it the second time almost as badly.

I've made my point about how I feel about our chances of future success and why on these threads in detail today to the point everybody, including me, is probably thinking it's time I shut up. I think I will.
 
rodoheel said:
I have no idea. I'm not asking if we can land Sampson. I'm asking what UNC needs to do to be better than Sampson's program.
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I think Houston is a bit of an anomaly because of Sampson. I don't know what kind of $ they spend.

UNC's best chance to be top 5 is to spend top 5 $ year after year.
 
rodoheel said:
If you wouldn't trade our last five years for Houston's last five years in a heartbeat you are out of your mind. Kelvin Sampson is playing by the same rules we are. And Houston doesn't have a B10 or SEC media rights deal throwing them gobs of money. So what gives? Why are they a top 10 team every season, playing in the same NIL wild west we are?
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I guess I just don't feel entitled. You point to all these great teams and top seeds and exactly one has a natty. I will say again. I am.plesased with Hubert's growth as coach, this season so far, recruiting band I feel good about the future. Yuu clearly don't. That's ok too. Guess what? Hubert is our coach next year.
 
rodoheel said:
I am perfectly familiar with Dean's first five years. I find them completely irrelevant to this conversation. That was 65 years ago in what might as well have been a completely different sport.
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going back 65 years for a comp when the best comp is right down the street makes no sense.

Imagine any other job being evaluated by what was going on at that company almost 70 years ago..
 
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