Hubert Davis Catch-all

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finesse said:
I already edited and clarified I think. He seems blissfully ignorant of probabilities and when I pointed it out, doubled up on it. Frankly, I overreacted and should have just let it go or at least approached it differently.
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What's the world class competition? Expectations at UNC are high, but we aren't beating pro teams in France or Serbia, let alone the NBA.
 
stankeylegjones said:
I’m curious what probabilities you would assign to those teams listed?
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It's a ridiculous consideration. It would still be ridiculous if it was the start of next season and we knew the rosters for everybody. You have 8 chances against the field and nothing but estimated talent and fit to go on. Somebody would have to give me some serious odds to touch it.
 
superrific said:
What's the world class competition? Expectations at UNC are high, but we aren't beating pro teams in France or Serbia, let alone the NBA.
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Oh, I used to play bridge with and against a number of world champions including Bermuda Bowl winners. I had some fair success but pursuing it very far to the point it would pay for itself was way too much of a commitment in terms of time and money for a blue collar worker with three kids.
 
finesse said:
It's a ridiculous consideration. It would still be ridiculous if it was the start of next season and we knew the rosters for everybody. You have 8 chances against the field and nothing but estimated talent and fit to go on. Somebody would have to give me some serious odds to touch it.
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What odds would it take for you to bet on Duke being a top 2 NCAAT seed next season? Again, genuinely curious. I have a decent amount of experience with sports futures odds and I would be willing to bet that if a sportsbook was willing to set that type of futures line for next season, there's no way they would have it at longer odds than +250 or so. They probably would have it closer to even money than that.
 
finesse said:
Oh, I used to play bridge with and against a number of world champions including Bermuda Bowl winners. I had some fair success but pursuing it very far to the point it would pay for itself was way too much of a commitment in terms of time and money for a blue collar worker with three kids.
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I see. Is bridge really a game of probability? I thought the bidding was supposed to replace probability reasoning with signaling. But I barely know how to play bridge. My mom plays a LOT, but I never found it too interesting. The bidding seemed hokey to me. That's probably my own aesthetic thing. I mean, the bidding is literally the minimum you have to say to set the contract, but in today's world it just sounds weird.
 
rodoheel said:
What odds would it take for you to bet on Duke being a top 2 NCAAT seed next season? Again, genuinely curious. I have a decent amount of experience with sports futures odds and I would be willing to bet that if a sportsbook was willing to set that type of futures line for next season, there's no way they would have it at longer odds than +250 or so. They probably would have it closer to even money than that.
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I'd take a parlay of dook, Arizona, and UConn at +1200
 
rodoheel said:
What odds would it take for you to bet on Duke being a top 2 NCAAT seed next season? Again, genuinely curious. I have a decent amount of experience with sports futures odds and I would be willing to bet that if a sportsbook was willing to set that type of futures line for next season, there's no way they would have it at longer odds than +250 or so. They probably would have it closer to even money than that.
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Probably less than that. There's 8 chances and probably well less than 100 teams to consider. Call it 96 and it's basically 12 to 1 that they get a top eight. That adds some windage for injuries and such.
 
finesse said:
Probably less than that. There's 8 chances and probably well less than 100 teams to consider. Call it 96 and it's basically 12 to 1 that they get a top eight. That adds some windage for injuries and such.
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What would you put the odds of being down 16 to Virginia 13 to dook and 11 to Louisville and winning all three? Then add in that team down has bad coach and fiigure again.
 
superrific said:
I see. Is bridge really a game of probability? I thought the bidding was supposed to replace probability reasoning with signaling. But I barely know how to play bridge. My mom plays a LOT, but I never found it too interesting. The bidding seemed hokey to me. That's probably my own aesthetic thing. I mean, the bidding is literally the minimum you have to say to set the contract, but in today's world it just sounds weird.
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Card play is 95% probabilities and you can make the case it should be a 100% but sometimes you just get a stone cold read at the table on what is really going on.
 
heel79 said:
What would you put the odds of being down 16 to Virginia 13 to dook and 11 to Louisville and winning all three? Then add in that team down has bad coach and computer again.
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Not math and and I'm limited. Let's not forget, I was a blue collar worker with a high school education with an empirical knowledge of carpentry and bridge (hence, probabilities) and merely opinions backed by some small sense of curiosity for everything else. Any value you give my opinion is at your own risk.
 
finesse said:
Not math and and I'm limited. Let's not forget, I was a blue collar worker with a high school education with an empirical knowledge of carpentry and bridge (hence, probabilities) and merely opinions backed by some small sense of curiosity for everything else. Any value you give my opinion is at your own risk.
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Was asking rodo. My guess is down 16 at Virginia is 500 to 1, same with dook, maybe 200 to 1 with lville. Probably million to one there. Add in shitty coach. Kind of amazing. Meanwhile state is losing by 30 to team we beat. Lost by 41 to team we beat. But I know state beat us. Not having veesaar and Wilson is just an excuse.
 
finesse said:
It's a ridiculous consideration. It would still be ridiculous if it was the start of next season and we knew the rosters for everybody. You have 8 chances against the field and nothing but estimated talent and fit to go on. Somebody would have to give me some serious odds to touch it.
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I understand. I think the point was for you to handicap those teams, along with UNC, but I could be wrong.
 
finesse said:
Oh, I used to play bridge with and against a number of world champions including Bermuda Bowl winners. I had some fair success but pursuing it very far to the point it would pay for itself was way too much of a commitment in terms of time and money for a blue collar worker with three kids.
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I used to play a lot of bridge too. My father was a good player and taught me the game. I was never as good as him. My mother was terrible attenuate and I guess her bad bridge gene watered down my father’s strong gene (jk).
 
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