Hubert Davis Catch-all

[superrific]

So does this mean you have a hard time evaluating Dean Smith as a coach? Because nobody had more talent than Dean during his career, that's for dang sure. Does Dean get zero credit for 1982 because he had Jordan, Worthy, and Perkins?

Has everyone forgotten that getting the talent in the first place is a big part of the job of a college coach? Do you think Scheyer is just sitting on his couch while someone else assembles his roster for him?

1. Everyone had more talent back then, because early entry wasn't a thing. IIRC that 82 team had to go through Ralph Sampson in the ACC, then Hakeem and Drexler before getting to Sleepy Floyd and Ewing.

2. Freshmen weren't nearly as good. Developing players was a much bigger part of the job than it is today.

3. Scheyer didn't just have the most talent. He had the most by far. Who else started on that 82 team? Doherty and Jimmy Black. Jimmy was fine as a role playing point guard and Doherty did some things, but I don't recall any of Dean's teams having NBA talent at every single position. Even the 98 team (which he largely built) with Shammond, VC and 'Tawn, was giving big minutes to a sophomore Ed Cota, Makhtar, and Okulaja (who really struggled shooting that year).

The NBA all-start team in college model didn't show up until later, in the OAD era, pioneered first by Cal and then K. That's the difference. If you have to blend role players and superstars, that's coaching. If you have top 10 recruits at every position, you're rolling the ball out.

4. I wouldn't give Dean as much credit for that team as for the 93 championship. The 93 team beat a team of NBA all-stars with one guy who had any NBA career to speak of.

5. Getting the talent in the first place used to be a big part of the job of a college coach. It is now the job of the college program. Obviously the coach is still a major figure in that, but we have NIL donors, GMs to help with player evaluation and recruitment, etc.

 

[superrific]

That 92 team did have a pretty good shooter on it

Indeed, one. Had we another we would have made some serious noise. To be honest, I don't know that team well. I was at college at the time, not local to NC so no cable + no local = no UNC basketball to watch.

 

[Calheel]

1. Everyone had more talent back then, because early entry wasn't a thing. IIRC that 82 team had to go through Ralph Sampson in the ACC, then Hakeem and Drexler before getting to Sleepy Floyd and Ewing.

2. Freshmen weren't nearly as good. Developing players was a much bigger part of the job than it is today.

3. Scheyer didn't just have the most talent. He had the most by far. Who else started on that 82 team? Doherty and Jimmy Black. Jimmy was fine as a role playing point guard and Doherty did some things, but I don't recall any of Dean's teams having NBA talent at every single position. Even the 98 team (which he largely built) with Shammond, VC and 'Tawn, was giving big minutes to a sophomore Ed Cota, Makhtar, and Okulaja (who really struggled shooting that year).

The NBA all-start team in college model didn't show up until later, in the OAD era, pioneered first by Cal and then K. That's the difference. If you have to blend role players and superstars, that's coaching. If you have top 10 recruits at every position, you're rolling the ball out.

4. I wouldn't give Dean as much credit for that team as for the 93 championship. The 93 team beat a team of NBA all-stars with one guy who had any NBA career to speak of.

5. Getting the talent in the first place used to be a big part of the job of a college coach. It is now the job of the college program. Obviously the coach is still a major figure in that, but we have NIL donors, GMs to help with player evaluation and recruitment, etc.

Scheyer has freshman talent not senior talent. That 82 team would have destroyed Duke’s 25 team.

 

[sringwal]

There is always pressure to beat Carolina (and to a lesser extent, Duke) in that job. But State didn’t force him out. He left because he didn’t feel wanted.

It is a like a girlfriend leaving because the boyfriend is cheating. It was the girlfriend’s decision, but it had everything to do with the boyfriend’s actions.

Valid.

 

[sringwal]

I'm not. Not should anyone be. I simply have very little confidence right now that Hubert is the guy to bring us back to high-level success. That confidence may be somewhat restored by how this season ends.

No coaching hire is ever a sure thing. But if you get to the point where you're reasonably confident that the current coach is not able to lead your team at the level you want, it's time to make a change. You can't just not try because trying might fail. The question for the UNC admin this offseason (because it doesn't really matter what any of us think) is whether they still think Hubert can be the guy.

I don't have confidence that he is either. But I think he is a safer bet, at this point, then rolling the dice on someone else. To be clear, my belief is centered on the fact that I think it is highly unlikely that someone else "gets us there" faster than Davis can, and I believe that things are a lot more likely to get a whole lot worse without him then with him. Again, though, I value integrity and teaching young men to be adults first, and wins second. In the wins/losses category, I agree that Hubert has not lived up to my hopes. In terms of integrity/teaching young men to be adults category, however, I think he is the closest thing to Dean that we will see in the modern era of sport.

 

[Icky Mettle]

1. Dean's well oiled recruiting machine was nowhere near as well oiled as the Duke machine. We weren't getting top 5 players year in and year out, and certainly not in those numbers. We had 'Tawn and Vince in a really good recruiting class. Mcinnis too. And then . . . Okulaja. Who turned out to be a great surprise, but the point is that Dean was rarely able to bring in whole classes of nothing but burger boys, and certainly not three or four top 10 recruits a year.

2. Gut was old and had one foot out the door almost from the beginning.

3. I very much doubt that anyone is going to Duke to be coached by Scheyer. You think Cam Boozer gives a shit about Scheyer? What does Scheyer have to teach him? Boozer has had skills trainers since middle school (more than likely), and a Dad who can teach him a few things here or there. After he leaves, he will have plenty more skills trainers and coaches.

Flagg was ready for the pros before he got to Duke. He wasn't looking to be coached. He was looking for a place he could show out for a year and do some winning with the other top 10 talents.

Regarding Dean’s recruiting, he recruited in a very different era. For the bulk of his coaching career, when he recruited players, he generally expected them to stick around through their senior year. He didn’t have to worry about reloading most years. If he recruited a big class one year and it looked like he would have a loaded roster for a couple years, he might recruit a smaller class the next year. Or if he had a small class of seniors, he might bring in a small recruiting class for the following year.

But he certainly did bring in some loaded classes. Like the HS class of 1983 with Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, and Dave Popson (all highly ranked and McDs AAs), the class of 1985 with Jeff Lebo, Kevin Madden, Steve Bucknall (all McD’s AAs), and Marty Hensley, the class of 1986 with J.R. Reid, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt (all McDs AAs) and Jeff Denny, the class of 1990 with Eric Montross, Clifford Rozier, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese (all very highly ranked and McD’s AAs), and Pat Sullivan, the class of 1993 with Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, and Jeff McInnis (all very highly ranked and McD’s AAs).

 

[superrific]

Regarding Dean’s recruiting, he recruited in a very different era. For the bulk of his coaching career, when he recruited players, he generally expected them to stick around through their senior year. He didn’t have to worry about reloading most years. If he recruited a big class one year and it looked like he would have a loaded roster for a couple years, he might recruit a smaller class the next year. Or if he had a small class of seniors, he might bring in a small recruiting class for the following year.

But he certainly did bring in some loaded classes. Like the HS class of 1983 with Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, and Dave Popson (all highly ranked and McDs AAs), the class of 1985 with Jeff Lebo, Kevin Madden, Steve Bucknall (all McD’s AAs), and Marty Hensley, the class of 1986 with J.R. Reid, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt (all McDs AAs) and Jeff Denny, the class of 1990 with Eric Montross, Clifford Rozier, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese (all very highly ranked and McD’s AAs), and Pat Sullivan, the class of 1993 with Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, and Jeff McInnis (all very highly ranked and McD’s AAs).

yes, that's right. Recruiting over someone was still a thing. Because Dean didn't want star players relegated to bench duty just because there were other stars.

Notice something about those classes, though. They are three deep -- except 1990. They aren't five deep. They aren't trying to load the roster 1-11 with McD AAs. Also HS scouting was much worse, which is why so many of those names didn't do well in college (which was true for many other programs as well), though that's sort of a tangential point.

 

[Bigs23]

The link where I said Hubert had a low basketball IQ. I’ve never said that and has always said the opposite. Hubert has a very knowledgeable basketball IQ.

The closest I’ve ever come is criticizing his non use of time outs at the end of first halves to preserve time - but most coaches make that mistake and it isn’t a basketball IQ thing.

My bad. You were calling posters low IQ not Hubert.

 

[superrific]

Scheyer has freshman talent not senior talent. That 82 team would have destroyed Duke’s 25 team.

That 82 team didn't have senior talent either. And since nobody has senior talent like that any more, it's really not worth talking about.

I'm not getting into comparing individual teams across eras. I'm pretty sure that all top 10 teams these days would destroy the best teams of old, because players are much, much better overall. It's especially hard to compare with no 3 point line. If teams today were forced to play without a three point line, then yeah, the 82 team might have been way too much. But if 82 tried to play any college team these days with a three point line, it would be a massacre.

Cooper Flagg came into college as a much more developed player, in virtually all respects, than MJ. That's because everyone is better. Way better. Remember: when MJ came into college, there was nobody who played like MJ. So he had to invent much of it (like his signature post moves), and it took time. Guys like Kobe got to copy MJ. They were doing MJ things as teenagers, because MJ had shown them how. Kobe added some stuff himself. Lebron added a bunch of stuff over time. And today's kids don't have to figure that out, because it's already been shown to them.

So it's pointless to try to compare. It's like comparing Jesse Owens to Carl Lewis. I don't know which was the better sprinter relative to competition, or to background, but I do know that Carl Lewis was faster. Because everyone is faster now.

 

[uncjhodges]

Indeed, one. Had we another we would have made some serious noise. To be honest, I don't know that team well. I was at college at the time, not local to NC so no cable + no local = no UNC basketball to watch.

I was really just being cheeky since it was our current head coach as the shooter. I was 4 during the 1992 season, i have virtually zero recollection of it, and very little of 1993. Though 93 really omly
had the one shooter (and another year of experience for everyone)

 

[rodoheel]

yes, that's right. Recruiting over someone was still a thing. Because Dean didn't want star players relegated to bench duty just because there were other stars.

Notice something about those classes, though. They are three deep -- except 1990. They aren't five deep. They aren't trying to load the roster 1-11 with McD AAs. Also HS scouting was much worse, which is why so many of those names didn't do well in college (which was true for many other programs as well), though that's sort of a tangential point.

For much of Roy's tenure, probably something like 75% of his (recruited) players were McDonald's All-Americans. The recruiting scandal cut into that a bit in the mid-late 2010s, but his best teams were still built around those guys. The 2005 title team had Jawad, Marvin, Felton, McCants, and May (and Manuel was around the top 25, too, as I recall). 2009 had Hansbrough, Green, Frasor, Ellington, Lawson, Drew, Ed Davis, and Zeller (and Deon Thompson was also a 5* recruit). The 2016-17 teams that went to back to back title games had Paige (2016), Meeks, Hicks, Jackson, Berry. Pinson, and Bradley (2017). These were all teams where most or all of the starters, plus key reserves, were elite recruits.

Dean and Roy probably had more "talent" than the other team in something like 95% of the games they coached at UNC. That doesn't mean all they were doing is simply rolling the ball out.

 

[rodoheel]

I don't have confidence that he is either. But I think he is a safer bet, at this point, then rolling the dice on someone else. To be clear, my belief is centered on the fact that I think it is highly unlikely that someone else "gets us there" faster than Davis can, and I believe that things are a lot more likely to get a whole lot worse without him then with him.

I respect your opinion, but frankly do not understand how or why you think things "are a lot more likely to get a whole lot worse without him then with him." If Hubert were let go, there is every reason to believe that UNC will hire a promising, in-demand coach and continue to commit significant financial resources to basketball. There is never a guarantee of success but I don't see the amount of risk in a new hire that you do.

Again, though, I value integrity and teaching young men to be adults first, and wins second. In the wins/losses category, I agree that Hubert has not lived up to my hopes. In terms of integrity/teaching young men to be adults category, however, I think he is the closest thing to Dean that we will see in the modern era of sport.

I really respect Hubert's character and integrity, but I think it is awfully presumptuous to think that he is uniquely excellent in those attributes among all modern coaches.

 

[superrific]

I was really just being cheeky since it was our current head coach as the shooter. I was 4 during the 1992 season, i have virtually zero recollection of it, and very little of 1993. Though 93 really omly
had the one shooter (and another year of experience for everyone)

It was a fair point.

 

[Icky Mettle]

yes, that's right. Recruiting over someone was still a thing. Because Dean didn't want star players relegated to bench duty just because there were other stars.

Notice something about those classes, though. They are three deep -- except 1990. They aren't five deep. They aren't trying to load the roster 1-11 with McD AAs. Also HS scouting was much worse, which is why so many of those names didn't do well in college (which was true for many other programs as well), though that's sort of a tangential point.

The biggest recruiting class Dean Smith brought in in terms of numbers was the HS class of 1989, which consisted of George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Henrik Rodl, Kevin Salvadori, Kenny Harris, and Scott Cherry. He thought he was getting Shaq from that class.

He hauled in that big one plus the big one the following year after bringing in two small classes in a row. 1987 just consisted of King Rice and Rick Fox (Pete Chilcutt would be joining them to round out the freshman class after redshirting his true freshman year), and 1988 just consisted of the guy who is the topic of this thread. Talk about a big recruit! Kenny Williams, a top-3 player nationally, also committed in 1988, but he didn’t make the grades to land on campus.

 

[superrific]

For much of Roy's tenure, probably something like 75% of his (recruited) players were McDonald's All-Americans. The recruiting scandal cut into that a bit in the mid-late 2010s, but his best teams were still built around those guys. The 2005 title team had Jawad, Marvin, Felton, McCants, and May (and Manuel was around the top 25, too, as I recall). 2009 had Hansbrough, Green, Frasor, Ellington, Lawson, Drew, Ed Davis, and Zeller (and Deon Thompson was also a 5* recruit). The 2016-17 teams that went to back to back title games had Paige (2016), Meeks, Hicks, Jackson, Berry. Pinson, and Bradley (2017). These were all teams where most or all of the starters, plus key reserves, were elite recruits.

Dean and Roy probably had more "talent" than the other team in something like 95% of the games they coached at UNC. That doesn't mean all they were doing is simply rolling the ball out.

Neither Deon nor Larry Drew were 5* recruits, not that I remember. But the bigger point is that those were heralded high school players but NOT NBA talent. Nobody ever thought Marcus Paige would be leaving school early to pursue an NBA career. Nor Meeks. Hicks was really raw and was never going to be one and done.

And indeed, the back to back title game teams were built with upper classmen, because they were recruited as three or four year guys. That was the choice Roy made.

Obviously in 2010 he had major talent; HB, JH and TZ were considered legit pro prospects. Henson and Zeller were pretty decent players who were in the wrong place at the wrong time, and Henson might not have taken things seriously enough, but they were clearly NBA talents. HB is still in the league, amazingly. He never lived up to his #1 HS recruit hype, but he's been successful overall. But even JH and TZ were projects when they entered.

 

[sringwal]

I respect your opinion, but frankly do not understand how or why you think things "are a lot more likely to get a whole lot worse without him then with him." If Hubert were let go, there is every reason to believe that UNC will hire a promising, in-demand coach and continue to commit significant financial resources to basketball. There is never a guarantee of success but I don't see the amount of risk in a new hire that you do.

I really respect Hubert's character and integrity, but I think it is awfully presumptuous to think that he is uniquely excellent in those attributes among all modern coaches.

I am willing to admit that I may well end up being wrong about the first part. I think you are, however, incorrect about the second part.

 

[superrific]

The biggest recruiting class Dean Smith brought in in terms of numbers was the HS class of 1989, which consisted of George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Henrik Rodl, Kevin Salvadori, Kenny Harris, and Scott Cherry. He thought he was getting Shaq from that class.

He hauled in that big one plus the big one the following year after bringing in two small classes in a row. 1987 just consisted of King Rice and Rick Fox (Pete Chilcutt would be joining them to round out the freshman class after redshirting his true freshman year), and 1988 just consisted of the guy who is the topic of this thread. Talk about a big recruit! Kenny Williams, a top-3 player nationally, also committed in 1988, but he didn’t make the grades to land on campus.

I thought Salvadori came in with the Fab Five. Did he redshirt a year prior?

But that 89 class is quantity over quality. As you said, he thought he was getting Shaq. When he didn't, he grabbed a few projects like Wenstrom and (I guess) Salvadori. Neither Harris nor Cherry were high impact recruits and neither were ever expected to make an impact. Honestly, with Harris, I think he was trying to find Hubert 2.0. Lynch was a big time recruit.

The Kenny Williams debacle really hurt the team. And thanks for bringing it up, because it really shows how the world has changed. That exemplified the problem with the OAD model before NIL. If you are banking on Kenny Williams, and he ends up not even graduating from HS (I think that's why he wasn't admitted), then you're screwed unless you have players already in place. But those players weren't going to be high quality if they are bench players (unless they are freshmen sitting behind seniors), so that limited the talent you could recruit. These days, no Kenny Williams? Just get another guy to hold down the fort.

I think I recall Roy having a top recruit early in his tenure at Kansas who lost his foot. Big time player, tried to hop a train for some reason (probably shits and giggles) and his foot was amputated.

 

[Bigs23]

I think Scheyer is a good coach. He's proven that over the past four years as the results speak for themselves. It's also true that he inherited a completely different situation than Davis did. Dook has been paying players more than anyone other than maybe Kentucky for the past decade plus. That has enabled them to get the top recruiting class every single year and load up on NBA all star talent. That combined with continuing to be at the top of the pecking order in terms of paying players now that it's legal gives him a head start on creating the most talented roster pretty much every year. Of course none of that has anything to do with Davis' struggles, as he's had enough talent to not shit the bed 2 out of 5 years, but it is a different situation that Davis has faced.

I'll say this, Scheyer appears to be a very good coach for dook, which I guess is all that matters.

I don't know how his coaching would translate at other programs but I guess that doesn't matter.

 

[Icky Mettle]

yes, that's right. Recruiting over someone was still a thing. Because Dean didn't want star players relegated to bench duty just because there were other stars.

Notice something about those classes, though. They are three deep -- except 1990. They aren't five deep. They aren't trying to load the roster 1-11 with McD AAs. Also HS scouting was much worse, which is why so many of those names didn't do well in college (which was true for many other programs as well), though that's sort of a tangential point.

Sorry, I got cut off from finishing my previous response. My main point was that Dean didn’t need to constantly bring in big recruiting classes every year because most players stuck around throughout their eligibility, and he was able to have teams loaded with McD’s AAs, with many being upperclassmen. Most of Dean’s teams had as many, if not more, McD’s AAs than the Dukes and Kentuckys of the past ~15 years. 1981 was the year that the first class McD’s AAs were college seniors. Starting with 1981, this is the number of McD’s AAs Dean had on his teams:

1981 - 6
1982 - 6
1983 - 7
1984 - 8 + 1 redshirt
1985 - 6
1986 - 8
1987 - 8 + 2 redshirts
1988 - 7
1989 - 7
1990 - 6
1991 - 8
1992 - 6
1993 - 6 + 1 redshirt
1994 - 8
1995 - 5
1996 - 4
1997 - 5

 

[Bigs23]

Sorry, I got cut off from finishing my previous response. My main point was that Dean didn’t need to constantly bring in big recruiting classes every year because most players stuck around throughout their eligibility, and he was able to have teams loaded with McD’s AAs, with many being upperclassmen. Most of Dean’s teams had as many, if not more, McD’s AAs than the Dukes and Kentuckys of the past ~15 years. 1981 was the year that the first class McD’s AAs were college seniors. Starting with 1981, this is the number of McD’s AAs Dean had on his teams:

1981 - 6
1982 - 6
1983 - 7
1984 - 8 + 1 redshirt
1985 - 6
1986 - 8
1987 - 8 + 2 redshirts
1988 - 7
1989 - 7
1990 - 6
1991 - 8
1992 - 6
1993 - 6 + 1 redshirt
1994 - 8
1995 - 5
1996 - 4
1997 - 5

Wow!

I guess you could look at that as top 100ish players in all of CBB those years.