If 2016 would have been different

[superrific]

Kennedy would not have retired between 2016-20 if HRC had won. He's pretty old so it's hard to say whether he would have tried to soldier through a term starting in 2020.

But we'd have a 5-4 court. We wouldn't have Justice Jackson, though, because Breyer would have retired in 16-20 I think.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Harris has a better chance of winning in 2024 than she would in 2028. Trump is like the great motivator of Democratic turnout and the race is still a toss up. Harris is not a very good candidate and would struggle to beat just about anyone but Donald Trump, IMO.

 

[CFordUNC]

Harris has a better chance of winning in 2024 than she would in 2028. Trump is like the great motivator of Democratic turnout and the race is still a toss up. Harris is not a very good candidate and would struggle to beat just about anyone but Donald Trump, IMO.

It's definitely an interesting thought but I don't think I agree (shocker, right? ). If, hypothetically, Harris wins in 2024 and Trump is vanquished once and for all (he ain't making it to 2028 one way or the other, IMO), the 2028 race becomes a lot more "normal" in the traditional sense of American general elections where the incumbent POTUS has an advantage, particularly if and when the economy continues to perform strongly and we aren't involved in boots-on-the-ground combat elsewhere in the world. The post-Trump GOP is going to fracture- there is nobody currently who can just pick up and carry the Trumpian mantle. And they're going to be dealing with a lot of intraparty fighting between the sane moderate conservatives who want the party of Reagan back, and the nihilistic MAGAs who want Trumpism back.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

I think the real mistake the Democrats made in 2016 was putting the thumb on the scale for Hillary. No real viable candidates emerged to challenge her and while Bernie tapped into something, I don't think it was ever going to be enough to beat the Clinton machine.

Incumbents have already been through the primary process and it can be a real benefit to clear out a challenge or 2 early, but primaries work for non-incumbents. They can promote some really good but lesser known candidates and put some really weak early favorites on the bench, see JEB and Howard Dean. More than anything, those extra years on the campaign trail can really improve a good candidate. See Obama. I hope I'm wrong about the current Dem selection, but it honestly doesn't look like it.

 

[CFordUNC]

I hope I'm wrong about the current Dem selection, but it honestly doesn't look like it.

Lolololol yeah, the current Dem selection who has raised more money and generated more grassroots volunteerism and a stronger ground game than anyone in Democratic political history- save for *maybe* Barack Obama- and done all of the above in essentially three months' time, is such a terrible selection.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

If Clinton had won in 2016 we would have handled Covid exponentially better than it was under Trump and the following economy would have been better. Obviously, the SC would look different and Roe would have been protected.

I do think we would still be in Afghanistan. And I do think Bill would would have done something stupid that would have caused issues for her administration.

While that is almost certainly true, it wouldn’t have mattered. As the saying goes, you never get credit for averting a disaster. Nobody would have known how things would have turned out had Trump won. Research papers on what would have happened had Clinton not taken the (unfavorable) measures aren’t going to persuade many voters.

COVID was almost impossible to navigate without suffering politically.

 

[dukeman92]

I beg your pardon. I was a full grown adult with a family and a business during all of those. Conjecture on my part doesn't exist. I might be in the minority in my opinion but I have real life experience and I am not the one ignorant of what really happened. What were you doing,then?

Consider the pardon begged.

 

[finesse]

It's always interesting to learn who people are.

 

[dukeman92]

I think the difference here is that it would have been three straight terms of having a democratic President. Modern history has shown that Americans don’t like for the same party to be in the White House for that many back-to-back terms. Neither party has been able to remain in the White House for more than three straight terms since Truman left office, and the same party has lasted in the White House for three straight terms only once since then. So I think there’s a very good chance she doesn’t get re-elected for a second term.

That’s an interesting point. But if she’s doing a relatively good job (and I believe she will) there isn’t really a reason to think she would lose a reelection bid.

I don’t know who the pubs will run in 2028… Trump has already said this is his last campaign… hopefully we can turn the page and move on from MAGA

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

I don’t think any way Hillary Clinton would have won reelection. I think the republican response to Covid, and particularly her measures to mitigate it, would have been absolutely detestable.
I think the supreme court would look different. But I am also assuming 1) kennedy wouldn’t have retired and 2) the republicans would have expanded the supreme court during the last 4 years

I think the biggest thing is would Trump have gone away?

I think Trump wouldn’t be a factor nationally if he lost the first go-around. The establishment Pubs hate him and they would have kicked him to the curb had he lost.

 

[Duke Mu]

One term Presidents since 1950 - it's varied. Marginal communication skills, war, economic disaster, age, chaos, scandal, third party candidates

LBJ - Mishandling of Vietnam, inflation, assassinations of MLK, RFK, Chicago riots, American cities burning. It was a real mess.
Ford - solid POTUS, but very dry, marginal communicator, pardoned Nixon/Watergate fatigue
Carter - high inflation + unemployment (misery index), Iranian hostages, second oil/gas crisis
41 - solid POTUS, marginal communicator, whacky 3rd party candidate in Perot, looked at his watch
Trump - agent of chaos lies, bogus personna created on TV, COVID, stupid daily tweets, weird cult

Unfortunately, Trump LIES and Disinformation re: FEMA and hurricane have made this election a virtual tie. There's an abnormal morpheus effect of the Trump Firehose of Lies. Just a couple would sink any campaign, but the firehose and MSM sanewashing provides Traction.

Harris is a solid communicator. If she were elite like Obama, Clinton, or Reagan, she'd win handily.

Let's assume Trump loses - does he slink away or hopefully fly away to avoid extradition? Does MAGA allow the GOP to return to normal. Can it return to normal?

Would a Nikki Haley be able to challenge? I think it would be difficult. She's been Governor, but South Carolina as state has major economic disparity and incredibly poor areas where people like in shacks and old school buses. DeStantis has the personality of sandpaper. Abbott is delusional and power hungry. It's a reasonable assumption of Kamala wins this year and the economy remains status quo, she would prevail in 2028.

 

[rodoheel]

Harris has a better chance of winning in 2024 than she would in 2028. Trump is like the great motivator of Democratic turnout and the race is still a toss up. Harris is not a very good candidate and would struggle to beat just about anyone but Donald Trump, IMO.

I think it remains to be seen what a post-Trump Republican Party will look like. If he loses this election, he'll immediately start campaigning for 2028 again and he'll be the nominee if he wins. If he wins, the big question will be whether he wants to try to play kingmaker for the party after that, or if he dies, or if he wants to sort of leave the party on its own. If he wants to play kingmaker the Republican base will do whatever he says.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I think Trump wouldn’t be a factor nationally if he lost the first go-around. The establishment Pubs hate him and they would have kicked him to the curb had he lost.

Yep. Most of them tried to keep their distance before the election. They thought he would lose and were concerned that any association with him would be bad news for their political futures. Then he won and all that changed.

But had he lost that first go round, no doubt they would have showed him the door. And some of them very gently tried to after 2022 didn’t turn out to be anywhere close to the red wave they expected. They wanted some new blood to be the face of the party, thinking he was dragging it down, but his base is very loud.

 

[duluoz]

I think Trump wouldn’t be a factor nationally if he lost the first go-around. The establishment Pubs hate him and they would have kicked him to the curb had he lost.

I think he’d have topped out at a Bernie-like level of influence. Not insignificant nor kicked to the curb, but he’d have never risen to the kind of prominence he ultimately gained.

And would the rise of white nationalism and authoritarianism in pockets on the global scene have grown to what it is, and rising? Without that big orange domino tipping on the world’s biggest political stage, I doubt it.