I kind of like using AI for this. For example, comparing the JCPOA to the current status quo --
Nuclear Constraints and Breakout Time
The most concrete argument in favor of the JCPOA is its impact on Iran's nuclear breakout time—the amount of time it would take Iran to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Under the deal, Iran's breakout time was stretched to over twelve months. Today, following the deal's collapse, Iran's breakout time has been reduced to approximately one week or less, as reported by the IAEA in late 2024. Under the JCPOA, Iran was restricted to enriching uranium to no more than 3.67% purity; Iran is now enriching uranium to 60% and, as of May 2025, possessed over 400 kg of uranium enriched to that level—a nearly 50% increase from just months prior.
The deal also blocked both pathways to weapons-grade fissile material: uranium enrichment and plutonium separation. The plutonium-related provisions were considered so valuable that even the Trump administration issued sanctions waivers for several years after withdrawal to allow the UK and China to continue modifying Iran's Arak reactor, which could otherwise have produced enough plutonium for one or two nuclear weapons per year.
Verification and Transparency
The JCPOA established what RAND characterized as "the strongest inspections system ever negotiated". Iran agreed to implement the Additional Protocol, granting the IAEA expanded access to its nuclear facilities and potentially to undeclared sites. The IAEA confirmed multiple times that Iran was complying with the agreement while it was in effect.
After the U.S. withdrawal and Iran's subsequent steps away from the deal, Iran suspended implementation of the Additional Protocol in February 2021 and has increasingly limited the IAEA's ability to inspect its facilities. The IAEA has noted that the currently delayed inspection process would make it difficult to detect any breakout promptly. In short, the international community has lost much of the visibility it once had into Iran's nuclear program.
Diplomatic Multilateralism and U.S. Credibility
The JCPOA was a multilateral agreement involving the P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) and the EU. By unilaterally withdrawing in 2018, the United States placed itself—rather than Iran—in a position of noncompliance, which risked isolating the U.S. from its allies. RAND analysts warned at the time that walking away from the deal would "send a clear message that the United States can't be trusted to keep its word" and would "degrade our long-term commitment to end the spread of nuclear weapons". European allies tried to maintain the deal through mechanisms like INSTEX, but those efforts largely failed.
The Current Situation: Escalation and Conflict
The post-JCPOA trajectory has been marked by significant escalation. U.S.-Iran tensions culminated in a military conflict beginning in mid-2025, with the U.S. and Israel launching strikes on Iran's nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. As of March 2026, the situation has devolved into an ongoing war, with 1,500 people killed in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz closed to most shipping, and oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. The U.S. and Iran remain far apart on ceasefire terms, with Iran's military leadership stating it "can never get along" with the U.S. and refusing to negotiate directly.
Counterarguments
It should be noted that critics of the JCPOA raised legitimate concerns. The deal contained sunset provisions that would have lifted certain restrictions over time, which critics argued merely delayed Iran's nuclear ambitions rather than permanently resolving them. The deal also did not address Iran's ballistic missile program or its support for regional proxy groups. Additionally, some argued that sanctions relief under the JCPOA emboldened Iran's regional behavior—its defense budget rose and its "malign activities" in the Middle East increased during the JCPOA period.
Summary
| Factor | Under the JCPOA | Current Status |
Breakout time | Over 12 months | One week or less |
Enrichment level | Capped at 3.67% | Up to 60%, with stockpiles growing |
IAEA inspections | Robust verification under Additional Protocol | Significantly limited; Additional Protocol suspended |
Multilateral unity | P5+1 aligned on enforcement | U.S. largely isolated; allies unable to maintain deal |
Military conflict | No direct U.S.-Iran military confrontation over nuclear program | Ongoing military conflict as of 2026; Strait of Hormuz disrupted |
Iran's economy | Grew 12.5% in 2016–17 under sanctions relief | Heavily sanctioned; reliant on workarounds via China and crypto |
On balance, proponents argue the JCPOA provided verifiable constraints on Iran's nuclear program, maintained international transparency, and preserved diplomatic channels—all of which have deteriorated significantly since the U.S. withdrawal. The current situation, marked by a near-zero breakout time, limited inspections, and active military conflict, illustrates the risks that JCPOA supporters warned about when the U.S. left the deal.