Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR

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This may be optimistic wishcasting on my part but I think we're going to see a major TACO soon. Short of our using nuclear weapons, Iran won't break and they have no incentive whatsoever to do anything other than continue closing the Hormuz and continue bombing Israel and the Gulf states until both Bibi and Trump's administrations are wrecked. The reaction by the global markets this morning has undoubtedly got Trump shitting his Depends. He's an abject moron, but he's not a religious moron; he doesn't view this war as some biblical crusade as do some in his administration. He'll declare victory and say that we accomplished our objective of knocking out their nuclear capabilities (again!) and move on.

We've already lost this war strategically. We've gained nothing, but we've lost our bases and our influence in the Middle East. The Islamists will not lose power in Iran, and if anything will probably further consolidate it. There will be no regime change. Mojtaba Khameini will be the next Supreme Leader, and he's even harder of a hardliner. He'll now be hailed as a hero in Iran. Oh, and by the way, we killed his dad, his mom, his wife, and one of his children. Think he's going to have anything other than searing hatred for the U.S. and Israel?

The only slight silver lining I can see is that Israel seems to have finally overstepped and lost significant public support in the U.S. I think they finally flew too close to the sun. They'd already lost much of the Democratic Party and base with their actions in Gaza, and now they're losing many Republicans, too. This could be a permanent shift as the younger generations in both parties have a growing revulsion for Israel.
 
CFordUNC said:
This may be optimistic wishcasting on my part but I think we're going to see a major TACO soon. Short of our using nuclear weapons, Iran won't break and they have no incentive whatsoever to do anything other than continue closing the Hormuz and continue bombing Israel and the Gulf states until both Bibi and Trump's administrations are wrecked. The reaction by the global markets this morning has undoubtedly got Trump shitting his Depends. He's an abject moron, but he's not a religious moron; he doesn't view this war as some biblical crusade as do some in his administration. He'll declare victory and say that we accomplished our objective of knocking out their nuclear capabilities (again!) and move on.

We've already lost this war strategically. We've gained nothing, but we've lost our bases and our influence in the Middle East. The Islamists will not lose power in Iran, and if anything will probably further consolidate it. There will be no regime change. Mojtaba Khameini will be the next Supreme Leader, and he's even harder of a hardliner. He'll now be hailed as a hero in Iran. Oh, and by the way, we killed his dad, his mom, his wife, and one of his children. Think he's going to have anything other than searing hatred for the U.S. and Israel?

The only slight silver lining I can see is that Israel seems to have finally overstepped and lost significant public support in the U.S. I think they finally flew too close to the sun. They'd already lost much of the Democratic Party and base with their actions in Gaza, and now they're losing many Republicans, too. This could be a permanent shift as the younger generations in both parties have a growing revulsion for Israel.
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I like the cut of your jib :cool:
 
CFordUNC said:
This may be optimistic wishcasting on my part but I think we're going to see a major TACO soon. Short of our using nuclear weapons, Iran won't break and they have no incentive whatsoever to do anything other than continue closing the Hormuz and continue bombing Israel and the Gulf states until both Bibi and Trump's administrations are wrecked. The reaction by the global markets this morning has undoubtedly got Trump shitting his Depends. He's an abject moron, but he's not a religious moron; he doesn't view this war as some biblical crusade as do some in his administration. He'll declare victory and say that we accomplished our objective of knocking out their nuclear capabilities (again!) and move on.

We've already lost this war strategically. We've gained nothing, but we've lost our bases and our influence in the Middle East. The Islamists will not lose power in Iran, and if anything will probably further consolidate it. There will be no regime change. Mojtaba Khameini will be the next Supreme Leader, and he's even harder of a hardliner. He'll now be hailed as a hero in Iran. Oh, and by the way, we killed his dad, his mom, his wife, and one of his children. Think he's going to have anything other than searing hatred for the U.S. and Israel?

The only slight silver lining I can see is that Israel seems to have finally overstepped and lost significant public support in the U.S. I think they finally flew too close to the sun. They'd already lost much of the Democratic Party and base with their actions in Gaza, and now they're losing many Republicans, too. This could be a permanent shift as the younger generations in both parties have a growing revulsion for Israel.
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Israel and the US have different, although overlapping objectives (despite Trumps constant confusing mumblings). There difference between the two translates to how the war ends. I feel at the end of it, we will have spent billions, depleted military and political reserves and little will have changed in the Gulf. I think Israel will emerge much stronger in Lebanon and in possession of even more stolen land in Judea and Samaria.
 
CFordUNC said:
This may be optimistic wishcasting on my part but I think we're going to see a major TACO soon. Short of our using nuclear weapons, Iran won't break and they have no incentive whatsoever to do anything other than continue closing the Hormuz and continue bombing Israel and the Gulf states until both Bibi and Trump's administrations are wrecked. The reaction by the global markets this morning has undoubtedly got Trump shitting his Depends. He's an abject moron, but he's not a religious moron; he doesn't view this war as some biblical crusade as do some in his administration. He'll declare victory and say that we accomplished our objective of knocking out their nuclear capabilities (again!) and move on.

We've already lost this war strategically. We've gained nothing, but we've lost our bases and our influence in the Middle East. The Islamists will not lose power in Iran, and if anything will probably further consolidate it. There will be no regime change. Mojtaba Khameini will be the next Supreme Leader, and he's even harder of a hardliner. He'll now be hailed as a hero in Iran. Oh, and by the way, we killed his dad, his mom, his wife, and one of his children. Think he's going to have anything other than searing hatred for the U.S. and Israel?

The only slight silver lining I can see is that Israel seems to have finally overstepped and lost significant public support in the U.S. I think they finally flew too close to the sun. They'd already lost much of the Democratic Party and base with their actions in Gaza, and now they're losing many Republicans, too. This could be a permanent shift as the younger generations in both parties have a growing revulsion for Israel.
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I truly hope you're right, and I'd put the odds at a little over 50% you are. My biggest concern is the ~20% risk we're in the position Russia was in this time four years ago. Putin had just as much reason to TACO then as Trump does now. And it terrifies me how much Trump wants to wield Putin-style autocratic power.
 
Batt Boy said:
Israel and the US have different, although overlapping objectives (despite Trumps constant confusing mumblings). There difference between the two translates to how the war ends. I feel at the end of it, we will have spent billions, depleted military and political reserves and little will have changed in the Gulf. I think Israel will emerge much stronger in Lebanon and in possession of even more stolen land in Judea and Samaria.
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That sounds like a very solid prediction.
 
After the humanitarian and ecological concerns I have, my biggest concern that I don't think enough people are talking about is how galvanized and further radicalized against the United States and Israel this is going to make so many more people in the Middle East for generations to come. I don't really give a shit about how they feel about Israel, but I care very much that there are going to be a whole lot more folks over there with a whole lot more motivation to harm the U.S. Our actions in this conflict have done untold and likely permanent damage to not only our standing around the globe, but also our ability to project strength, deterrence, and influence. Our days as a global superpower are likely over- not necessarily economically, of course, but certainly as a hegemonic and cultural superpower.
 
CFordUNC said:
The overwhelming vast majority of people around the globe would likely classify what we did to that school as 'evil' because even if the bombing itself was accidental,
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Do you think that makes sense? We agree that intentionally bombing a school is evil, but is it evil to make a terrible mistake? It seems to me that evil and intent go hand-in-hand.
CFordUNC said:
the cover-up and refusal of accountability is intentional- and thus, evil.
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I'm sure you've seen the video of Trump blaming Iran for for the bombing, while Hegseth, stand a couple feet behind him, says they're still investigating. I'm going to give Hegseth & Co. the benefit of the doubt.....for now.

United States was "likely" responsible for bombing of girls' school in Iran, per early U.S. assessment​


www.cbsnews.com

United States was "likely" responsible for bombing of girls' school in Iran, per early U.S. assessment

The preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment suggests that the U.S. is "likely" responsible for the bombing of the girls' school in Iran on Feb. 28.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
 
lawtig02 said:
I made this mistake myself, but this is not a winnable argument with Zen. He's one of those weird people who thinks the puppy who bites its owner is more evil than the owner who responds by shooting the puppy with a bazooka.
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Y'all haven't been paying attention.

Some people are just shitty. You can't do much about it other than pity those who have to deal with them on the daily.
 
I'm already looking forward to the House (and hopefully Senate) investigation in early 2027 to determine how much, if any, strategic planning was done before Trump launched this war. I have no doubt the military has had attack plans drawn up for years. But in terms of geopolitical and economic strategy, I'm guessing the answer approximates an evening around a Ouiga board.
 
ZenMode said:
Do you think that makes sense? We agree that intentionally bombing a school is evil, but is it evil to make a terrible mistake? It seems to me that evil and intent go hand-in-hand.
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Yes, I've been pretty explicitly clear that the evil is not in the initial mistake but rather in the subsequent refusal to account for it. Certainly I hope to have to ultimately stand corrected and that Trump and Hegseth and Co. will pleasantly surprise us all by court martialing the parties involved, but the likelihood of that happening is essentially zero.
 
CFordUNC said:
Yes, I've been pretty explicitly clear that the evil is not in the initial mistake but rather in the subsequent refusal to account for it. Certainly I hope to have to ultimately stand corrected and that Trump and Hegseth and Co. will pleasantly surprise us all by court martialing the parties involved, but the likelihood of that happening is essentially zero.
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Trump and Hegseth will court martial themselves? Yeah, that's a zero.
 
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