Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR

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superrific said:
Oh, I'm sure the operation happened. But how many people would know if the person was actually rescued?

I don't know, it was an idle observation that we should never, ever, ever take anything this administration says at face value. At the very least, we know they would do it if they could
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True, and also there are different rules for military operations where secrecy and deception are not just the norm, but fundamental stratagems.

At the end of the day Trump is a bullshitter. Every single word out of his mouth, true, false, or hybrid is self serving bullshit and just what he feels like saying at the moment. We all listen to anything the man says at our own peril.
 
nycfan said:


Shot down on Good Friday. Flown out of Iran as the sun was rising on Easter Sunday. A pilot reborn, all home and accounted for, a nation rejoicing. God is good
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God is good, isn't he? I think this also confirms he 'works in mysterious ways.'

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Bobfripp said:
" Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship"

Would this be a new fee, not previously imposed?
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$2 mill I on is obviously posturing, and likely a negotiation tactic. If this administration was competent, they could likely get that number down significantly, allowing both sides to declare a win. That ain't happening under Trump, though.
 
sringwal said:
$2 mill I on is obviously posturing, and likely a negotiation tactic. If this administration was competent, they could likely get that number down significantly, allowing both sides to declare a win. That ain't happening under Trump, though.
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I don't see a world where we could accept any number. It acknowledges that Iran has ownership of that waterway and can close it down to anyone. I think they are going to need to prove that over time during sustained military strikes before we would accept that.
 
sringwal said:
$2 mill I on is obviously posturing, and likely a negotiation tactic. If this administration was competent, they could likely get that number down significantly, allowing both sides to declare a win. That ain't happening under Trump, though.
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I don’t think any of this is a negotiation tactic.

I think Iran feels that they have the upper hand (not militarily of course but geopolitically) and their goal is to embarrass Trump and the US as a future warning.

I don’t think the money is at all the goal with the Hormuz fee. Sure they probably want it yo rebuild but more importantly it is a display that the US can’t control Iran without takings on excessive losses.

Iran knows that the US will not send ground forces and that while their country can be severely bombed, their government will remain.

Just my reads. I could be wrong on all of it.
 
By the way, I don’t see a way out of this war.

Iran is emboldened. They are willing to take a punishment if the end result is seen as a defeat for the US.

It would be highly embarrassing and damaging to the US if they withdrawal without Iran at least returning to the status quo which Iran won’t do.

Trump isn’t going to back down unless he can spin it as a win. That is getting harder and harder to do. The other option is to escalate.

Iran doesn’t have the military of the US but due to Trump’s incompetence they have a much better plan.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
I don’t think any of this is a negotiation tactic.

I think Iran feels that they have the upper hand (not militarily of course but geopolitically) and their goal is to embarrass Trump and the US as a future warning.

I don’t think the money is at all the goal with the Hormuz fee. Sure they probably want it yo rebuild but more importantly it is a display that the US can’t control Iran without takings on excessive losses.

Iran knows that the US will not send ground forces and that while their country can be severely bombed, their government will remain.

Just my reads. I could be wrong on all of it.
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Iran can't know that US won't send ground forces. You can't know anything when dealing with Trump because he is irrational and stupid.

Also, Iran can be squeezed by the US closing the strait to Iran-paid tankers. The US hasn't played that card yet due to oil market dynamics, but it is in the playbook if Iran overplays its hand.
 
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