Iran Catch-All | US-Iran talks begin

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Batt Boy said:
Surprised the IDF hasn't hit back yet because you know there were multiple war games already run with targeting scenarios rehearsed. Makes me think the BM attack did some damage at the airbases. Both Israel and the Iranians have good OPSEC reasons for not sharing the truth, but eventually some BDA will come out. I doubt the IDF nor the US will share if they lost aircraft. If they did, which is looking more possible, then it could explain the delayed response.
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It could be that they have assessed that "hitting back" is not the smart response. An escalated regional conflict with a nation-state like Iran is a very different matter than a conflict against a terrorist organization like Hamas or Hezbollah, particularly one that could achieve nuclear breakout in a matter of weeks.

Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail.
 
roostra said:
It could be that they have assessed that "hitting back" is not the smart response. An escalated regional conflict with a nation-state like Iran is a very different matter than a conflict against a terrorist organization like Hamas or Hezbollah, particularly one that could achieve nuclear breakout in a matter of weeks.

Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail.
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There is a 0.0% chance that Israel will not retaliate. If negative percentage chances were a thing, I'd say less than 0.0%
 
Calheel said:
There is a 0.0% chance that Israel will not retaliate. If negative percentage chances were a thing, I'd say less than 0.0%I
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I suppose the $64 dollar question is whether they will retaliate in basically a token way that avoids a continuing cycle of retaliation or if they go all in.

The April 2024 missile barrage ended with the former.
 
roostra said:
I suppose the $64 dollar question is whether they will retaliate in basically a token way that avoids a continuing cycle of retaliation or if they go all in.

The April 2024 missile barrage ended with the former.
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Yes, that is the real question.
 
roostra said:
I suppose the $64 dollar question is whether they will retaliate in basically a token way that avoids a continuing cycle of retaliation or if they go all in.

The April 2024 missile barrage ended with the former.
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The difference was that the April exchange was specifically in retaliation to Israel's missile attack on Iranian soil (the Iranian Embassy in Damascus), and thus from a tit for tat stance a "valid" retaliation.

This last exchange was in response to the attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which did not directly threaten Iranian territory one iota. In Israel this will be viewed as an "illegitimate" retaliation that demands a response.

For better or worse Israel will respond.

Safe and secure in our chairs thousands of miles away these things things can seem like minor differences, but they do matter.
 
CNN:

JUST IN: Israel has begun its retaliatory strikes on Iran following an attack from Tehran earlier this month, according to an official familiar. Several explosions were heard in Tehran on Saturday morning local time, according to Iranian state media.

• Earlier, US Air Force F-16 fighter jets arrived in the Middle East from Germany, according to US Central Command, as the region braces for Israel’s anticipated response to Iran’s major missile attack earlier this month.

• Meanwhile, Israel’s military chief has said there was the possibility of a “sharp conclusion” to the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as troops have “thoroughly dismantled Hezbollah’s senior chain of command.”

• Talks on a possible deal in Gaza are expected to resume this weekend, though there is little expectation of a breakthrough before the US presidential election, sources tell CNN.

 


Will Iran and Israel return to their clandestine war footing from pre-Oct 7 or does Iran feel compelled to retaliate?
 
Meanwhile, in Iran



“… The Baluch regions across the three nations have faced a low-level insurgency by Baluch nationalistsfor more than two decades. Verifying information remains difficult in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan, which for decades has been home to violence involving heroin traffickers.

The province is one of the least developed parts of Iran. Relations between the predominantly Sunni Muslim residents of the region and Iran’s Shiite theocracy have long been strained. Typical attacks involve hit-and-run assaults by militants in the region, like the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, that kill a few security officials at a time.

… Meanwhile, the Taliban said they are investigating reports that Afghan migrants had been killed by Iranian security forces in the region earlier in October, an incident that threatened to further strain relations between the nations. …”

Few beyond Western clandestine services ever seem interested in this Iranian backwater of Sunnis.
 
Israel strikes Iran in high-stakes retaliation

Israel launched direct strikes against Iran early Saturday, in a high-stakes retaliation to Tehran’s ballistic missile barrage earlier this month. Israel said it hit military targets, which did not include energy infrastructure, according to an Israeli military source.

• Iran has said it is “entitled” to defend itself following the attack, but Iranian media appears to be downplaying the strikes, reporting limited damage at military sites in three provinces. The army said two soldiers were killed.

• A senior US administration official said President Joe Biden encouraged Israel to design its attack against Iran in a way that would deter further escalation. World leaders have been urging the two sides to avoid a wider regional war.

• Meanwhile, Gaza’s health ministry says Israeli forces have detained male staff members during a raid at Kamal Adwan Hospital in the north of the enclave, where the UN human rights chief says Israel is “subjecting an entire population to bombing, siege and risk of starvation.”

 
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