Is the economy already tanking?

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Yep. GDP projections for Q1 have gone negative. Day one has come and 39 gones...

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of incoming data is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5% for the first quarter.

While the tracker is volatile through the quarter and typically becomes more reliable much later in the quarter, it does coincide with some other indicators showing a growth slowdown.

Inflation + Recession + Pandemics + World War Spectre

Now that takes some talent! Another 39 days and we can be a sh*thole economic country like Russia, if we aren't already. We're already their 51st Socialist State or w/e.
 
Tariffs still have not hit economy in a meaningful way. Most companies stockpiled inventories before the so called "liberation day." So it will take even longer for higher priced tariff goods to hit economy. It is starting slowly thus month, but most will begin hitting in July/Aug/Sep.

Just a few weeks ago, the World Bank reduced Global GDP growth. For the U.S., they took it down about a full percentage point. They reduced 2025 U.S. GDP growth from a sluggish 2.5% down to an anemic 1.6%. That is good news if accurate (and the World Bank is leading authority on mon-partisan projretions) in that a recession would be avoided if accurate. However, 1.6% is NOT enough to support the very high Zo/E ratios in the U.S. stock market right now.

Bessent thought he made a clever rebuttal in his congressional testimony yesterday. He stated. "You are cherry picking about companies raising prices. You mention Target will increase prices, but other retailers will not."

That is not quote the zinger he thinks it is. While trueness that if some companies eat the increased cost, that will negate some inflationary effects. However, that just means corporate profits are squeezed and those companies react in different ways, increased layoffs, or their stocks tank on reduced earnings. One way or another, Americans pay for it through higher prices, or corporate earnings declines (layoffs and stock declines).
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
Tariffs still have not hit economy in a meaningful way. Most companies stockpiled inventories before the so called "liberation day." So it will take even longer for higher priced tariff goods to hit economy. It is starting slowly thus month, but most will begin hitting in July/Aug/Sep.

Just a few weeks ago, the World Bank reduced Global GDP growth. For the U.S., they took it down about a full percentage point. They reduced 2025 U.S. GDP growth from a sluggish 2.5% down to an anemic 1.6%. That is good news if accurate (and the World Bank is leading authority on mon-partisan projretions) in that a recession would be avoided if accurate. However, 1.6% is NOT enough to support the very high Zo/E ratios in the U.S. stock market right now.

Bessent thought he made a clever rebuttal in his congressional testimony yesterday. He stated. "You are cherry picking about companies raising prices. You mention Target will increase prices, but other retailers will not."

That is not quote the zinger he thinks it is. While trueness that if some companies eat the increased cost, that will negate some inflationary effects. However, that just means corporate profits are squeezed and those companies react in different ways, increased layoffs, or their stocks tank on reduced earnings. One way or another, Americans pay for it through higher prices, or corporate earnings declines (layoffs and stock declines).
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It’s amazing how many “conservatives” have suddenly bought into economic theories that they were 100% against their entire lives. They garble nonsense that they don’t believe and wouldn’t be caught dead advocating for just 6 months ago.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
Tariffs still have not hit economy in a meaningful way. Most companies stockpiled inventories before the so called "liberation day." So it will take even longer for higher priced tariff goods to hit economy. It is starting slowly thus month, but most will begin hitting in July/Aug/Sep.

Just a few weeks ago, the World Bank reduced Global GDP growth. For the U.S., they took it down about a full percentage point. They reduced 2025 U.S. GDP growth from a sluggish 2.5% down to an anemic 1.6%. That is good news if accurate (and the World Bank is leading authority on mon-partisan projretions) in that a recession would be avoided if accurate. However, 1.6% is NOT enough to support the very high Zo/E ratios in the U.S. stock market right now.

Bessent thought he made a clever rebuttal in his congressional testimony yesterday. He stated. "You are cherry picking about companies raising prices. You mention Target will increase prices, but other retailers will not."

That is not quote the zinger he thinks it is. While trueness that if some companies eat the increased cost, that will negate some inflationary effects. However, that just means corporate profits are squeezed and those companies react in different ways, increased layoffs, or their stocks tank on reduced earnings. One way or another, Americans pay for it through higher prices, or corporate earnings declines (layoffs and stock declines).
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2.5% GDP growth is not sluggish. 1.6% is. I suspect we're going to be lucky to hit 1.6%.
 
donbosco said:
Have Liberals always been fans of Free Market Economic Policies?
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We're not talking about free market economic policies. We are talking about international trade.

I'm 100% positive that Paul Krugman -- author of the slightly pro-tariff "infant industry" or "strategic protection" argument -- is aghast at these tariffs. Krugman is about as liberal as they come.

Unions want tariffs. Unions should not be confused with liberals. They aren't the same, and of course have been growing apart because cultural issues.
 
superrific said:
We're not talking about free market economic policies. We are talking about international trade.

I'm 100% positive that Paul Krugman -- author of the slightly pro-tariff "infant industry" or "strategic protection" argument -- is aghast at these tariffs. Krugman is about as liberal as they come.

Unions want tariffs. Unions should not be confused with liberals. They aren't the same, and of course have been growing apart because cultural issues.
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Who is the "we" you are referring to in your response to me?
 
superrific said:
2.5% GDP growth is not sluggish. 1.6% is. I suspect we're going to be lucky to hit 1.6%.
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I dIsagree Super. While a GDP growth rate between 2-3% is generally considered "good," real data supports my claim that 2.5% is rather sluggish. In the past 63 years, the U.S. GDP growth rate was higher than 2.5% 44 times. That is, 70% of the last 63 years, GDP was greater than 2.5%. Often times by nearly double that amount or more.

So yes, sluggish. 1.6% is even worse and certainly not a Golden Age "the likes of which we have never seen before."

U.S. GDP Growth Rate | Historical Chart & Data

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the...
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
No. Strongest economy in the world. Not sure it’s close.
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Thanks to Biden

Unfortunately now under Trumps guidance

The first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the US, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in May 2025, experienced a contraction of 0.3%. This was the first time since the first quarter of 2022 that the U.S. economy saw negative GDP growth.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
I dIsagree Super. While a GDP growth rate between 2-3% is generally considered "good," real data supports my claim that 2.5% is rather sluggish. In the past 63 years, the U.S. GDP growth rate was higher than 2.5% 44 times. That is, 70% of the last 63 years, GDP was greater than 2.5%. Often times by nearly double that amount or more.

So yes, sluggish. 1.6% is even worse and certainly not a Golden Age "the likes of which we have never seen before."

U.S. GDP Growth Rate | Historical Chart & Data

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the...
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
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My understanding -- and this is based on secondary sources that I can't really evaluate, so I'm reciting more than analyzing -- is that the expected long term growth rate for the economy is about 2%, maybe a little bit higher.

Historical data will not be a great guide, for a few reasons:

1. Population growth is a substantial driver of GDP. Population growth rate was larger in the past
2. The economy also benefited from a huge increase in factor inputs from women having careers, and minorities having opportunities.
3. As economies get bigger, it becomes harder and harder for them to grow. That's why you can sometimes see eye-popping 20% GDP growth figures from small impoverished African countries, for instance.

The agreement is more than the disagreement, I think. For one thing, we agree that 2.5>1.6. You'd think I wouldn't have to point that out, but well, you know some of our posters. We also agree that 2.5% is at least somewhere in the range of "meh" to "pretty good," and 1.6% is somewhere in the range of "anemic" to "pretty poor."
 
evrheel said:
Thanks to Biden

Unfortunately now under Trumps guidance

The first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the US, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in May 2025, experienced a contraction of 0.3%. This was the first time since the first quarter of 2022 that the U.S. economy saw negative GDP growth.
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Harris should have rolled to a win. Biden managed the economy better than every other country in the world.
 
aGDevil2k said:
My company is about to do layoffs... Ugh.
I'm hopefully safe, given I know early, but you never know. And even if safe I know the workload is going to be brutal afterwards because we are going to lose so many good people.

I hate this crap. I hate business
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I'm with you.

My company has had layoffs the past three years.

I don't expect one this year.

It is as you have stated. We all had to pick up the jobs of those who were let go.

I've never been busier at work. I don't feel that I am keeping up or ever going to catch up.

At this point, I just hope I can hold out for 3 more years then get a package.
 
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