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Israel launches attack on Iran | US bombs Iran nuke sites

Zoo_View said:
Iran might not be able to completely close the Straits of Hormuz with mines; but, it can wreak havoc.

Part of Iran’s southern coastline wraps around the cape opposite it. Iran has hundreds of miles of coastline on the Persian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz.
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One of the many things I’ll be watching closely over the next few days is the response from the emirates on the other side of the gulf. This could be catastrophic for them. And they tend to do whatever is required to avoid catastrophe.
 
theel4life said:
What if they moved the stuff

They have terrorists all around the world. Including on US soil. Don’t be naive.
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They've had terrorists all around the world. Including on US soil. Doesn't matter.

Could they attack us? Sure. Could they kill a dozen people, or dozens of people? Sure. But we've had that exact same threat for nearly 30 years now.
 
dukeman92 said:
Israel should have considered that before starting a war they couldn’t finish. But Netanyahu knew he could goad Trump into doing his bidding.

We have a weak, stupid, completely incompetent president.
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Agree on the last part, but Israel did exactly what it needed to do. Iran's nuclear capabilities have been set back substantially with very limited casualties in return. Iran was so weak that, as another poster put it, it would have been almost criminal not to take advantage of this opportunity. They are likely never going to be weaker than they are right now.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
People getting worked up that Iran wasn’t close to a nuke are missing the point. Let it play out. If there’s no escalation from here, this strike was a total success.
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You probably believed the yellowcake story and believed Iraq had WMD, didn't you?
 
ZZLPHeels said:
They've had terrorists all around the world. Including on US soil. Doesn't matter.

Could they attack us? Sure. Could they kill a dozen people, or dozens of people? Sure. But we've had that exact same threat for nearly 30 years now.
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Not true. The potential may be roughly the same, but the actual threat is much higher after last night.
 
My son says Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait but the final decision doesn’t rest with that body. I don’t have a grasp of Iranian governmental structure so not sure if this is just saber rattling or it’s going to happen.
 


I admit I expected more of a crater but this seems like a giant drill hole.

It seems like human intel from the site will be necessary to understand how effective it was.
 
lawtig02 said:
Not true. The potential may be roughly the same, but the actual threat is much higher after last night.
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Fair, but that is a calculated risk that I'm fine with. Losing a handful of people in a terrorist attack would be horrible but it would pale in comparison to the prospect of losing a million people due to a nuclear detonation 10 years from now that we could easily have prevented.
 
nycfan said:


I admit I expected more of a crater but this seems like a giant drill hole.

It seems like human intel from the site will be necessary to understand how effective it was.
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That’s the only approach that could possibly work. But it’s still way too early to know (a) if the underground structures were actually damaged, and (b) if what we were trying to destroy was still there.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Agree on the last part, but Israel did exactly what it needed to do. Iran's nuclear capabilities have been set back substantially with very limited casualties in return. Iran was so weak that, as another poster put it, it would have been almost criminal not to take advantage of this opportunity. They are likely never going to be weaker than they are right now.
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And that line of thinking is exactly what will draw us into a long drawn out conflict. Netanyahu Has been ringing the alarm bells about Iran and nukes for decades. They’ve been 90% there since 1995.
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We just can’t seem to learn our lesson WRT that region.

They’re not going to roll over and play dead.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Fair, but that is a calculated risk that I'm fine with. Losing a handful of people in a terrorist attack would be horrible but it would pale in comparison to the prospect of losing a million people due to a nuclear detonation 10 years from now that we could easily have prevented.
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Losing a handful of people in a terrorist attack is not even remotely the extent of the risk. That may be closer to a best case scenario. But again, we have no way whatsoever to know what will happen from here. Thanks to Trump.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Have you not been following the news over the past few months? Do you think they are letting Israel completely dominate them by choice? Maybe they are sadists? Of course not. Their military has no offensive capabilities left. Their proxies - namely Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Syria - are all effectively dismantled. We have total air superiority over all of Iran. Their launchers have nearly all been eliminated. The most they can do is rage on Twitter, which is exactly what they have been doing. They are done.

In the GWOT, which lasted over 20 years and involved us actually invading two countries, we lost approximately 7,500 troops. We aren't going to lose "tens of thousands" of troops from an airstrike on a defenseless enemy unless they all simultaneously die of boredom while waiting for Iran to respond.
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Do you realize that China is exceptionally dependent on Iranian oil? Do you believe that the Chinese government is going to sit by and allow us to reduce Iran to chaos? This portends to wreak havoc on the Chinese economy and they may very well consider it an act of war against China itself.
 
dukeman92 said:
And that line of thinking is exactly what will draw us into a long drawn out conflict. Netanyahu Has been ringing the alarm bells about Iran and nukes for decades. They’ve been 90% there since 1995.

We just can’t seem to learn our lesson WRT that region.

They’re not going to roll over and play dead.
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We've also taken meaningful action to slow their progress down since 1995. We (I'm including Israel in the "we") have taken out nuclear scientists and driven the program underground. And remember Stuxnet?

They may not want to roll over and play dead, but they are all out of options. If John wants to burn down his ex's house, but John's arms are cut off, John is going to have a very, very hard time burning down his ex's house.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
None of this will happen. Iran is completely powerless.
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This strikes me as incredibly naive. Iran can't reach us with missiles or stealth bombers, but they can sabotage city water systems and power grids. They can create internet chaos. They can make the price of oil double. Iran is powerless to respond in kind but by no means are they powerless.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Do you realize that China is exceptionally dependent on Iranian oil? Do you believe that the Chinese government is going to sit by and allow us to reduce Iran to chaos? This portends to wreak havoc on the Chinese economy and they may very well consider it an act of war against China itself.
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Yes, I am 100% confident the Chinese government is going to sit by here. Iran isn't even the top 5 of countries that China imports oil from. And we didn't target Iran's oil fields. We very specifically targeted their nuclear facilities. This isn't World War III. This isn't even the GWOT.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Do you realize that China is exceptionally dependent on Iranian oil? Do you believe that the Chinese government is going to sit by and allow us to reduce Iran to chaos? This portends to wreak havoc on the Chinese economy and they may very well consider it an act of war against China itself.
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They either do not understand or don’t care. Geopolitical instability in that region will cause global chaos.
 
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