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By that measure, the US should most certainly not have nuclear weapons.
Israel launches attack on Iran
- Thread starter Carolina Fever
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- Politics
ZenMode
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MAD only works if both sides are afraid to die.
ZenMode
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lawtig02
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I wish NOBODY had nuclear weapons. And I fear every day the fact that the nuclear key is in the hands of the worst human in American history. But just as I have hope that Iranians will eventually prevail over their despotic government, I hope we'll hold on for another 3.5 years until sanity resumes.
superrific
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The evidence from almost 50 years of their rule suggests otherwise. We quake in our boots because they cosplay armageddon, but a lot of that came from Ahmadinejad.
The irony is that the Iranians are some of the best in the world at applying strategic irrationality. In fact, they are too good. They make people actually scared rather than worried. While this might seem a gossamer distinction in most contexts, it's pretty fucking important for strategic irrationality. South Korea isn't scared that North Korea will YOLO an attack of Seoul. It's worried about it. That's the difference between ordering a military attack after a cruise ship gets blown to bits and taking a more measured approach.
superrific
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Have you seen the Iranian clerics? These are not men eager to die. They are clinging to life as long as they can. Khameni is 86 years old. You don't get to be that age if you didn't care about dying.
This. If Iran were to get nukes, it would only be a matter of time before one of those nukes detonated in an Israeli or American city. That's not only from a political aspect (religious nutjobs are more likely to want to engage in suicide attacks that inflict maximum carnage), but from a security aspect as well. Iran's regime is unstable and it is feasible that it could collapse and those nukes could end up in anyone's hands.
ZenMode
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Democrats seem to greatly underestimate just how serious Islamic terrorists are about wiping out Israel, the lengths they will go to accomplish it and how little concern they have for their lives on Earth.
BlooVooDoo
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Why can’t they defend themselves with the money we’ve already given them? They’ve received multiples more money from the US than Ukraine has and they are fighting an enemy that has a small fraction of the capabilities of Russia.
I’d rather defend a democracy that didn’t start a conflict and doesn’t try to manipulate US policy for their own benefit and at the expense of the average American.
Batt Boy
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Bad take. Read Jay Solomon. https://www.amazon.com/Iran-Wars-Battles-Secret-Reshaped-ebook/dp/B00RRT34MS
This. How often have you seen the Ayatollahs and top Iranian leadership blow themselves up? They like Putin like living and know that the biggest threat to their survival (other than a completely unleashed Bibi with unlimited Trump support) is initiating nuclear war.
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Apologies in advance for the source of this link --
ON REASON FOR MORE FREQUENT PROTESTS
Mohsen Kadivar
“Over 60 percent of the Iranian population is young. Less than 30 years old. So this is a very young population. The demands of the Iranian youth are exactly the same as the demands of other youth in other countries. The Iranian government (comprises) hardliners. Their goals are far from Iranian youth and Iranian population. So these protesters, most of them, almost all of them are young people. They experience a lot. They were detained. They were imprisoned in these recent protests. So by this rich experience, their family members are supporting them much more than before.”
“And also, their favorite national heroes, athletes and artists, are in the same vein.”
“They are so brave. They’re in the street. They’re chanting. This is not only about freedom for women. It’s freedom for the country.”
“In 2009 they chanted, ‘Where is my vote?’ In this protest, they’re chanting, ‘Where is my life?’
“They need freedom of a style of life. This mandatory style of life that the government tries to force to the Iranians – one of the particulars is about hair covering for women. This is exactly about freedom.”
* * *
ON WHETHER REGIME CHANGE IS POSSIBLE
Mohsen Kadivar
“I think this is the question of many Iranians and many protestors. The desire of Iranians, the majority of Iranians, is regime change. We can see it in their chanting and their slogans.”
“When we ask of ourselves, is it possible today in this protest? I think this is … idealistic. This protest is a step forward. We are closer to freedom for Iran, closer to a better future for Iran. But we should understand the reality of this regime.”
“This is a revolutionary, young, authoritative, non-competitive electoral regime.”
“Since 2020, this is a noncompetitive, electoral, authoritative regime in the name of Islam. Before that we had two candidates in the presidential election. One from the reformist or moderate side, and one from the hardliner side. But since 2020, the leader decided to have a noncompetitive election. This is the election we had and (current Iranian President) Ebrahim Raisi came to office.”
“Iranians tried all the ways to reform their government. The government blocked all the ways. That means there’s no way for the people, except coming to the streets and protesting and making demonstrations.”
“They tried to reform legally to change the president, to change the parliament members. I can say the majority of Iranians do not have any representatives in the Iranian parliament. The president is not representative of the majority of Iranians.”
“This regime is supported strongly by Russia and China. Those are their allies in the region. This regime is among the most powerful regimes in the region. So changing it is not so easy.”
IMO it is incredibly important to continue to draw hard distinctions between the Iranian government and the Iranian people.
The Iranian people should be our allies, and many of them want to be. They are *far* more aligned with the west in terms of culture and values than are Saudi Arabia or any of the Gulf states.
p5mmr9
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Israel is not Iran's only adversary in the region. A nuclear Iran would be a threat to Saudi Arabia,Jordan, Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, and Egypt.Some of these are very wealthy nation states that would seek to arm themselves similarly assuming Iran obtained a nuclear weapon. MAD not withstanding - the world would be safer without a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
And even then - the greater threat is one of Iran's non-state actors obtaining some sort of nuclear weapon via Iran and using it against Israel or one of Iran's other enemies. It is just a destabilizing threat in general.
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This is true, and it's also true that Israeli hardliners milk that kind of rhetoric for all its worth.
I saw a Rick Steves talk once where he was talking about taking a taxi cab in Tehran, and they got stuck in traffic. The driver said "Death to traffic!" which basically translated to "Damn traffic!" And so at least sometimes when Iranians say "Death to America" they're not actually suggesting tactics.
Mulberry Heel
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If I remember correctly Israel is the most heavily-armed small nation-state on Earth, largely thanks to us. Pretty much their entire adult population has been given mandatory military training (including nearly all Israeli women, Gal Gadot of Wonder Woman fame served in the Israeli military) and the entire nation is largely an armed camp, and has been ever since it was founded, as they were surrounded by enemies. Jordan and Egypt are no longer enemies, but there are still plenty of countries in the Middle East that would be happy to see Israel gone.
Having said that, Israel is more than capable of defending itself (and dealing out far more punishment than they take, as we're seeing now with Iran) without the USA needing to intervene militarily. There's no need for America to be sending troops or other personnel to fight with Israel, beyond Israel desperately wanting the USA to get involved to give them cover for what they're doing.
ZenMode
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The only thing that may be more dangerous than young, male Islamic extremist is an old, male Islamic extremist, at the end of his life, with a nuke.
superrific
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No you are living proof that propaganda, sociopathy, and arrogance is more dangerous. I'm confident that there was a time in your life when you were not like this ZenMode persona.