Latin America Politics General Thread

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CRHeel94 said:
I use to go very frequently: lovely country, friendly people, lots of interesting spots. My sister lives there as well as many friends. I stopped going for the most part in 2018 (one of my cousins was a political prisoner, my uncle had to go into exile and my Dad is on a watch list). Went with the CR Hoops team for a tournament last year...that was a long wait as they were checking our passports (went in with my CR passport). I had deactivated all my social media before going in.

At this point I don't see a solution...no light at the end of the tunnel. Have basically given it up as a lost cause. Have been through this before in the 80s when I went 12 years without being able to visit (back then all adolescent men were eligible for the draft). This is why I'm a little wary of the whole "let them get it out of their system" approach...well we let him into power in 2007 and he's still there.

And a hearty Fuck You to Bernie Sanders.
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I was going to ask you how much you really care about that citizenship, given that a) you don't want to live there with Ortega around and b) whenever Ortega falls, your citizenship would almost surely be restored.

But you preempted my question. Sorry to hear that. Is visiting the country going to be completely impossible, or unreasonably dangerous at the least? Or would there be ways to get in, at least for special events like a sister's (or her kids') wedding?

Ortega's second act in power has truly befuddled me. Usually guys like him don't get a second chance. When they lose power they flee or die.
 
Zoo_View said:
Ortega is 79; obviously he could easily rule another 10-15 years.

What happens when he dies? Does the FSLN retain power after he dies?
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Part of the reforms include making his wife Co-President. She's not as popular with the old school Sandinista cadre; it's been assumed that if he died, she would get taken out. However, in the past five years she has been building up her loyalty with younger leaders and putting them in positions of power. They also haves six or seven kids...some are real pieces of work. Once spends lavish amounts of money to produce operas starring himself. One other one fancies himself a young Steven Spielberg (manages their media empire). Then there's one who think he's the point man for the KGB in Latin America (political schemer). The daughter (the second one, not the first one that Ortega raped) is a fashionista who produces a Nicaragua Design week (married to an important guy at Cargill). Thinking is that the wife takes over, then possibly one of the kids.
 
superrific said:
I was going to ask you how much you really care about that citizenship, given that a) you don't want to live there with Ortega around and b) whenever Ortega falls, your citizenship would almost surely be restored.

But you preempted my question. Sorry to hear that. Is visiting the country going to be completely impossible, or unreasonably dangerous at the least? Or would there be ways to get in, at least for special events like a sister's (or her kids') wedding?

Ortega's second act in power has truly befuddled me. Usually guys like him don't get a second chance. When they lose power they flee or die.
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Honestly I think I can visit without a major problem, but there is a non-zero chance that I could be detained because I have the same name as my Dad (my Dad gave economic advice to a previous President). My wife really freaked out last year when I went, but I was with an official delegation (I thought there was very low risk). Lately, the Nicaraguan government just turn away people they don't want to come (airlines need to submit their passenger manifest 24 hours prior). You just have to watch what you say in public when you're there; my friends would clam up when talking politics in public places. Only in private homes and with people they trusted would they talk freely.

Ortega ran in elections three times after he was ousted until he finally won; he was out of power for 17 years but always had a lot of influence within the Sandinista Party which still had plenty of power. It is a very curious case of a guy returning to power...he was a total train wreck in the 80s (no matter what the romantic left at the time would have you believe). It was a colossal mistake to let him get back into power.
 
Much appreciated for your perspective CR. As you know, I was a FSLN backer once upon a time...I still think they had an amazing plan and that Somosa needed to go but Ortega has turned into a malevolent force to match the previous "dynasty's."
 
CRHeel94 said:
Part of the reforms include making his wife Co-President. She's not as popular with the old school Sandinista cadre; it's been assumed that if he died, she would get taken out. However, in the past five years she has been building up her loyalty with younger leaders and putting them in positions of power. They also haves six or seven kids...some are real pieces of work. Once spends lavish amounts of money to produce operas starring himself. One other one fancies himself a young Steven Spielberg (manages their media empire). Then there's one who think he's the point man for the KGB in Latin America (political schemer). The daughter (the second one, not the first one that Ortega raped) is a fashionista who produces a Nicaragua Design week (married to an important guy at Cargill). Thinking is that the wife takes over, then possibly one of the kids.
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My perception from way afar and without knowing much about Nicaragua is that a lot of Daniel Ortega’s power is based on him personally.

Do any family members inherit that?

Based on what you wrote about his wife and kids, no one is Daniel 2.0.

Is someone else in FSLN the heir apparent? Or, is Ortega trying to set up a hereditary dictatorship?
 
donbosco said:
Much appreciated for your perspective CR. As you know, I was a FSLN backer once upon a time...I still think they had an amazing plan and that Somosa needed to go but Ortega has turned into a malevolent force to match the previous "dynasty's."
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We all make mistakes. That’s why we got a bottle of rum pending at some point in the future 😎

Somoza definitely needed to go. No doubt.
Their plan was a charade. It was evident at the time but too many fell for the siren song. No need to re-litigate the civil war from the 80s ; there’s plenty of lapsed hard core Sandinistas that are now part of the opposition. Eventually it was us, the Central Americans who figured out a solution.

What I find puzzling (not to say disturbing) is that many of the internationalists from the 80s have pretty much stayed silent this time around on Ortega, even when it’s clear that he’s become a despot as bad as the Somoza regime.
 
Much appreciated for your perspective CR. As you know, I was a FSLN backer once upon a time...I still think they had an amazing plan and that Somosa needed to go but Ortega has turned into a malevolent force to match the dynasty
CRHeel94 said:
We all make mistakes. That’s why we got a bottle of rum pending at some point in the future 😎

Somoza definitely needed to go. No doubt.
Their plan was a charade. It was evident at the time but too many fell for the siren song. No need to re-litigate the civil war from the 80s ; there’s plenty of lapsed hard core Sandinistas that are now part of the opposition. Eventually it was us, the Central Americans who figured out a solution.

What I find puzzling (not to say disturbing) is that many of the internationalists from the 80s have pretty much stayed silent this time around on Ortega, even when it’s clear that he’s become a despot as bad as the Somoza regime.
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In the Guatemalan paper today.

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Think the alternability will serve Uruguay well...and I thought Lacalle did a pretty good job. Only black spot is that some of Orsa's confidants have been closer to the Madure regime than I would like at this moment.
 
Zoo_View said:
Ortega is 79; obviously he could easily rule another 10-15 years.

What happens when he dies? Does the FSLN retain power after he dies?
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A former bus driver who acts as strongman, but really operates as a front for corrupt military officials in bed with drug cartels, will takeover and hyperinflate the currency into oblivion.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Think the alternability will serve Uruguay well...and I thought Lacalle did a pretty good job. Only black spot is that some of Orsa's confidants have been closer to the Madure regime than I would like at this moment.
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Uruguay is also the most stable Latin country politically.

Also probably the strangest country I've ever visited. Montevideo at least has a very Soviet / communist feel to many areas, which are also dilapidated / abandoned. The city is built to have moderate levels of population density but there's hardly any people around.

Theres also this whole modern district we stayed near which has a few rather newish skyscrapers but nobody goes in and out. There are loads of restaurants with hardly any customers, the food also is remarkably bland; they didnt even salt the steaks at the restaurants my fiance and I went to. Plus the cost of living is insane for a LATAM country, without any indication of wealth locally to justify the prices. I can't even comprehend why the place is expensive other than that the entire country seems to exists today as a hub for massive money laundering.
 
It's expensive for Latin America because it has a very large middle class (same thing happens in Costa Rica). Paying workers decent wages gets passed on to the consumer one way or the other.

I don't think Ive ever heard of Uruguay being a massive spot for money laundering. Argentinians did park some of their money there during the Kirchner/Fernandez years as Argentina spiraled down. Their economy has been export oriented for quite some time with their largest export being beef (ironic that you found their steaks lacking salt).
 
As I wrote on the previous page - look to Paraguay for contraband heaven.

I spent a bit of time in Ciudad del Este. There’s a bridge there over the border with Brasil called the Puente de Amistad. There is a steady stream of ‘smugglers’ literally marching across from P to B carrying all kinds of electronics etc. Trucks too. The customs agents don’t stop them for anything but bribes. Those agents have historically gone ‘on strike’ for raises and benefits — by actually doing their job and thereby completely gumming up a significant sector of the Paraguayan economy. When they get their raise they go back to taking bribes instead. This relationship to regional trade goes back to the 19th century there.
 
donbosco said:
As I wrote on the previous page - look to Paraguay for contraband heaven.

I spent a bit of time in Ciudad del Este. There’s a bridge there over the border with Brasil called the Puente de Amistad. There is a steady stream of ‘smugglers’ literally marching across from P to B carrying all kinds of electronics etc. Trucks too. The customs agents don’t stop them for anything but bribes. Those agents have historically gone ‘on strike’ for raises and benefits — by actually doing their job and thereby completely gumming up a significant sector of the Paraguayan economy. When they get their raise they go back to taking bribes instead. This relationship to regional trade goes back to the 19th century there.
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so everyone reading this understands, what you are describing is not money laundering. i have no doubt that is a pretty accurate description of a paraguayan black market. but it's just a black market. there are black markets everywhere. maybe more per capita and per gdp in paraguay than elsewhere.
 
President of Honduras is threatening to expel the US base if Trump goes through with mass deportation of Hondurans.This will go over well I'm sure. She's a real piece of work by the way...there's elections in Honduras later in the year. Should be very contentious.

ticotimes.net

Honduras Threatens to Expel U.S. Military Bases Over Trump's Deportation Plans

Honduras warns of expelling U.S. military bases if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with mass deportations of Hondurans.
ticotimes.net ticotimes.net
 
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