MAGA Future

[Centerpiece]

If Trump gets in again it’s possible that he won’t have to “run” in 2028. He and his minions (which includes SCOTUS) could try a work around whereby he is automatically given a third term, or “terms” are extended to 6 or even 8 years long. Or if that doesn’t happen, they fix it so there is no longer a 2 term limit, Trump runs again in 2028, but it’s all fixed like a Putin reelection and trump wins by 95+%…. And the Dem challenger mysteriously dies of some sort of “illness” early on in the race.

 

[hedge]

If Trump gets in again it’s possible that he won’t have to “run” in 2028. He and his minions (which includes SCOTUS) could try a work around whereby he is automatically given a third term, or “terms” are extended to 6 or even 8 years long. Or if that doesn’t happen, they fix it so there is no longer a 2 term limit, Trump runs again in 2028, but it’s all fixed like a Putin reelection and trump wins by 95+%…. And the Dem challenger mysteriously dies of some sort of “illness” early on in the race.

As bad as it is now, it's hard to imagine how compromised Trump's mental and verbal capacity will be by 2028...

 

[rodoheel]

1. Most MAGA adherents are never going to realize and/or admit that they were either "bamboozled" or wrong about anything.

2. Anyone who thinks MAGA will disappear with Trump is kidding themselves. It's too many people, too much of a political force, to go away. It will simply find new Pied Pipers willing to engage in the same sort of populist, Christian-nationalist, isolationist rhetoric - JD Vance, Tucker Carlson, whoever - and continue on its merry way. I don't think any of the Trump kids are going to inherit the mantle, though I think both Eric/Lara and Don Jr. will try really hard (and fall flat on their faces doing it).

3. IMO the only thing that will end and/or substantially change the MAGA movement is a major internal or external force that changes the political landscape - another 2008-ish political collapse, major war, national or international disaster, etc. It's not going to just fade away.

 

[nycfan]

At a certain point, people in a cult realize they were bamboozled.

At what point will most people in this current one realize they were fooled? Maybe they never admit it but a shift will happen.

Of course Agent Orange won't live that much longer given how old, feeble and elderly he is. But will that be the moment people are like "wait he did nothing for me after all?"

Well, unfortunately sometimes they drink the Kool-Aid instead.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

1. Most MAGA adherents are never going to realize and/or admit that they were either "bamboozled" or wrong about anything.

2. Anyone who thinks MAGA will disappear with Trump is kidding themselves. It's too many people, too much of a political force, to go away. It will simply find new Pied Pipers willing to engage in the same sort of populist, Christian-nationalist, isolationist rhetoric - JD Vance, Tucker Carlson, whoever - and continue on its merry way. I don't think any of the Trump kids are going to inherit the mantle, though I think both Eric/Lara and Don Jr. will try really hard (and fall flat on their faces doing it).

3. IMO the only thing that will end and/or substantially change the MAGA movement is a major internal or external force that changes the political landscape - another 2008-ish political collapse, major war, national or international disaster, etc. It's not going to just fade away.

But Trump has the dynamism that brings in a ton of people who couldn’t give 2 shits about politics. I agree that there’s been a shift of the base of the GOO further right, but I do think post-Trump (meaning after he is dead) that a lot of his followers will stop being so into politics and move on to other interests. Look at the JD Vance Mountain Dew speech. The crowd was like “what the hell is this guy talking about?” If Trump had said this same line they would have roared approval. People like Hawley, Cotton, Rubio etc just don’t have the necessary charisma to make it work.

 

[superrific]

This.

Unless something drastically changes with Trumpism, and for every time he doesn't win and there are hopefully no Jan 6 sequels, they will run him every four years until he's in the ground. Hell, they will legit Weekend At Bernie's him if they think it will work.

Nah, if he loses, he's done. For one thing, he will be in jail.

 

[ENCHeel]

The manipulation of gullible audiences will only get worse with advances in AI and the penetration of media into every moment of our existence.

Agree 100%. Oh wait, you were saying conservatives are the gullible ones?

 

[rodoheel]

But Trump has the dynamism that brings in a ton of people who couldn’t give 2 shits about politics. I agree that there’s been a shift of the base of the GOO further right, but I do think post-Trump (meaning after he is dead) that a lot of his followers will stop being so into politics and move on to other interests. Look at the JD Vance Mountain Dew speech. The crowd was like “what the hell is this guy talking about?” If Trump had said this same line they would have roared approval. People like Hawley, Cotton, Rubio etc just don’t have the necessary charisma to make it work.

I think there may be some truth to that first sentence, and with respect to the comparison between Trump and Vance, but the shift of the Republican electorate hasn't been "to the right" so much as to a more populist, combative, almost sports fan-like approach to politics. I don't think that energy and attitude are going to disappear just because Trump did. There's now a whole ecosystem of dirtbag MAGA influencers with huge audiences (Carlson, Posobiec, Kirk, Bongino, Owens, Shapiro, etc) who are not going anywhere. It may be that Vance isn't the next Trump-esque figurehead for the movement - the next figurehead may not have appeared yet - but I don't think that audience is going to fade away from their affiliation with the MAGA movement generally. Not without some larger external force that changes the political landscape.

 

[rodoheel]

Agree 100%. Oh wait, you were saying conservatives are the gullible ones?

People everywhere are gullible, but the members of MAGA movement are more gullible than most, as you can see from the way that various scammers, grifters, fraudsters, and hucksters have flooded that particular ecosystem. And of course the chief grifter is Trump himself. There's a reason you don't see Democrats pushing the equivalent of Trump shoes, Trump bibles, etc.

 

[korgguy1971]

Nah, if he loses, he's done. For one thing, he will be in jail.

With respect super - and I do hope you're right - you don't know that for certain. I don't think even your intellect can predict what his fate will be with the current state of things being what they are.

 

[Wheels81]

 

[TarSpiel]

I think there may be some truth to that first sentence, and with respect to the comparison between Trump and Vance, but the shift of the Republican electorate hasn't been "to the right" so much as to a more populist, combative, almost sports fan-like approach to politics. I don't think that energy and attitude are going to disappear just because Trump did. There's now a whole ecosystem of dirtbag MAGA influencers with huge audiences (Carlson, Posobiec, Kirk, Bongino, Owens, Shapiro, etc) who are not going anywhere. It may be that Vance isn't the next Trump-esque figurehead for the movement - the next figurehead may not have appeared yet - but I don't think that audience is going to fade away from their affiliation with the MAGA movement generally. Not without some larger external force that changes the political landscape.

I agree with you that the cultural retrenchment and feelings of victimhood aren't going to go away.

But I am very skeptical of the idea that someone will come along who can take over the reigns of Trump. For one thing, his type of charisma doesn't grow on trees. For another, he has enough money not to care what people think...that alone will weed out lots of would-be successors. And finally, everybody is going to *want* to take his place, so they'll tear themselves apart trying to do so, and there will be lots of silos of mutually antagonistic right wing nutjobs, each accusing the other of being too "liberal".

My main worry with Trump is that he's shown people how it would be possible to seize the reigns of power and dismantle democracy. If someone does emerge who can take Trump's mantle, chances are almost certain that that person would be far more disciplined than Trump is. Scary thought.

 

[05C40]

I had a Great Aunt & Uncle whom I adored who lived in Macon, Georgia and visited my grandparents every summer. My Great Uncle had served under Eisenhower in Europe during WW2 and I loved listening to his war stories as a kid. They were both very conservative religiously and my Great Aunt in particular loved watching the Bakkers and that ridiculous PTL Club of theirs. They even donated money pretty frequently to them.

When it all came crashing down (in 1987, I think) I remember listening to my Great Aunt defend the Bakkers to my Grandmother, who although a Southern Baptist, had never cared for the Bakkers and thought there was something shady about them from the beginning. And indeed there was - sex scandals, embezzlement of donations and church funds for personal use, using church donations to put in air conditioned doghouses, and so on. And my Great Aunt defended the Bakkers until her death a few years later. Whether it was due to blind faith and trust, or as my Grandmother thought, stubborn pride and my Great Aunt's refusal to admit that she'd been scammed - I always felt sorry for my Great Aunt in her last years. Televangelist/Religious scammers and con artists are the worst, imo.

The defining moment for me in regard to Jim Bakker was when, on live TV, shortly after he and his sidekick had sequentially had sex with Jessica Hahn, said to this sidekick, "The Lord has been good to us today."

 

[Duke Mu]

Well, unfortunately sometimes they drink the Kool-Aid instead.

Or the other side of the Hale-Bopp bridge at heaven's gate.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

The US has had a few populist movements. Not a complete list but here are a few roads MAGA could take.

Jackson and his acolytes were around for a while. Some of his crazier policies like extending the franchise to poor uneducated louts (as long as they were white and male) are still around.

The know nothing party/American Party was gaining traction and then just sort of fizzled out and most of their members went to the antebellum Republican party.

FDR's New Deal Democrats were basically a populist party and a lot of it is still around.

William Jennings Bryant was about as Populist as you could get and never won a presidential election but Woodrow Wilson was able to moderate some of Bryant's policies enough to appeal to a wider cross section of the electorate and get elected.

So MAGA policies could 1) be around for a while like Jacksonians or New Dealers, 2)fizzle quickly like Know Nothings, or 3)moderate like Bryan/Wilson.

I'm going to guess three but hope for two.

 

[grubar]

The US has had a few populist movements. Not a complete list but here are a few roads MAGA could take.

Jackson and his acolytes were around for a while. Some of his crazier policies like extending the franchise to poor uneducated louts (as long as they were white and male) are still around.

The know nothing party/American Party was gaining traction and then just sort of fizzled out and most of their members went to the antebellum Republican party.

FDR's New Deal Democrats were basically a populist party and a lot of it is still around.

William Jennings Bryant was about as Populist as you could get and never won a presidential election but Woodrow Wilson was able to moderate some of Bryant's policies enough to appeal to a wider cross section of the electorate and get elected.

So MAGA policies could 1) be around for a while like Jacksonians or New Dealers, 2)fizzle quickly like Know Nothings, or 3)moderate like Bryan/Wilson.

I'm going to guess three but hope for two.

Not sure I would agree that most of these were true "populist" movements. But I would add Huey Long and Father Coughlin

 

[KishiKaisei]

It won't fizzle out overnight, but it will fizzle out in a 1-2 year span sometime in the unknown future. Go back and watch the early 2016 R primary debates when Jeb was the anointed frontrunner and Trump was the unwashed insurgent. Trump was booed like a pro wrestling heel by his own party, and a year later he was president.

We don't know when the fever will break, or what the catalyst will be, or how that will correspond with Trump's (hopefully natural) demise. But when it happens, maga will fade as abruptly as it started.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

I agree with you that the cultural retrenchment and feelings of victimhood aren't going to go away.

But I am very skeptical of the idea that someone will come along who can take over the reigns of Trump. For one thing, his type of charisma doesn't grow on trees. For another, he has enough money not to care what people think...that alone will weed out lots of would-be successors. And finally, everybody is going to *want* to take his place, so they'll tear themselves apart trying to do so, and there will be lots of silos of mutually antagonistic right wing nutjobs, each accusing the other of being too "liberal".

My main worry with Trump is that he's shown people how it would be possible to seize the reigns of power and dismantle democracy. If someone does emerge who can take Trump's mantle, chances are almost certain that that person would be far more disciplined than Trump is. Scary thought.

Agree here -
1. Trump's wealth is of course not what everyone thinks BUT he wasn't the type of regular politician that has to take all the money they can get from the Koch Brothers, etc. so he's not repeating talking points, he is just being himself. So even though he is unhinged, he IS authentic
2. I still believe a not-insignificant percentage of the MAGA base are people who don't really care about politics that much and are along for the ride because there's a leader who shit-talks people they don't like. Of course a lot of his voters are the type of folks who watch Fox/OAN/Newsmax all day and listen to talk radio and share everything they see from Dan Bongino/Candace Owens/Ben Shapiro on facebook...but I do think a chunk of his fans will be bored by a stock Republican. And a ton of them hate the establishment Republicans as much as they hate the Democrats.

 

[Bigs23]

At a certain point, people in a cult realize they were bamboozled.

At what point will most people in this current one realize they were fooled? Maybe they never admit it but a shift will happen.

Of course Agent Orange won't live that much longer given how old, feeble and elderly he is. But will that be the moment people are like "wait he did nothing for me after all?"

Never.

 

[farce©]

Not sure I would agree that most of these were true "populist" movements. But I would add Huey Long and Father Coughlin

Holy shit! A grubar sighting?