NBA Thread
- Thread starter stankeylegjones
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You know, so many times when a message board poster diagnoses a sports injury, other posters respond with things like, “Oh, are you a doctor?” Or, “Where did you get your medical degree?”
But in this case, boom.
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Veering off-topic of this year’s playoffs, something just dawned on me. Last season, Naz Reid won NBA 6MOY. In 2020, it was Montrezl Harrell. But are they the same person?:
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I don’t believe it was rigged, but I do think it shows the NBA lottery system isn’t working. The goal of a draft is to allow the bottom teams to acquire talent so they can improve. They established the lottery to avoid teams tanking. That hasn’t worked as more teams are tanking than ever. But there are too many teams in the lottery, and the worst team has never won the first pick. They need to limit the ability to win the first pick to the bottom 4 or 5 teams.
There are currently 14 teams in the lottery. They should eliminate the play-in losers from the lottery and their draft position should be determined by their finish like playoff teams. That leaves 12 lottery-eligible teams. Have 3 separate lotteries to determine the first four picks among the four worst teams, a separate drawing for teams 5-8, then 9-12. They can weight the teams chances within the different buckets if that is preferable, but it eliminates teams jumping from 12 or 14 to number 1. That will avoid teams barely missing the playoffs getting the top pick. And we should just forget the notion of stopping tanking because nothing they have tried has worked.
4thgenheel
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this. well said. the mavs amongst several other teams should not have even been eligible for that top pick.
the mavs getting it in particular feels like a miscarriage of justice. they're a playoff team if not for injuries (or the luka trade). the adelsons are fucking crooks, the trade was an abomination that reeks to high heaven and they somehow get rewarded for their nonsense with the top pick? disgusting turn of events.
mavs fans getting a reprieve from the misery of the luka trade is nice but you still just really hate to see nico harrison and the adelsons get rewarded in this fashion.
lawtig02
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Agree with all of this, but it's really, really hard not to think the NBA rigs the lottery, not just this year but on the regular. The odds of the Mavs and the Spurs getting 1 and 2 were extraordinarily slim.
4thgenheel
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ernst and young handles the lottery process, would they do that? is their loyalty to the client or to doing the right thing?
superrific
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That is only true since 2019, when lottery odds were flattened. It would be cosmically improbable for the worst team to have never won the first pick. As of now, it's merely unlucky.
HintonJamesHeel
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There is not enough difference in the odds but I understand why. They want to encourage teams to go for the play-in. The fact the Hornets have never had the top pick is insane but it’s a mess of a franchise.
superrific
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I agree with your sentiment here but I think it's more complicated than that because of tanking. Tanking is the predictable result of hard cutoffs for things like draft picks.
For instance, Philly this year won I think 3 games after the all-star break. That's because their draft pick was top 6 protected. They needed to finish worse than the Nets to have a good chance to keep it (they doubled their odds by finishing a game behind the Nets in the standings). But the Nets were also trying to lose. They were running out D-league teams, and not even good ones. The Warriors also lost like 12 straight games to close a season so they could keep the first round pick that became Harrison Barnes.
I disagree that nothing has worked re: tanking. The Mavs are actually a good example. Yes, they traded Luka, but they didn't tank. The whole team got hurt, but that's a different story as (from what I understand) the injuries were all legit. Irving isn't faking a torn ACL. They wouldn't have gained enough by tanking. Plenty of other teams that might have tanked in the past -- e.g. Indiana -- haven't because the rewards for tanking are so inconsistent.
There will always be tanking teams, simply because tanking is actually a hopeful strategy. If your team is going to lose 60 games, at least let it mean something. Otherwise you're telling your fans to come watch the team get destroyed and there isn't necessarily a lot of hope for the future. But there's a difference between two teams tanking and 10.
Obviously more has to be done re: tanking. The draft lottery doesn't solve the problem entirely. An easy step would be to eliminate pick restrictions or radically streamline them. You should be able to protect a first round pick at top 3 or at lottery and nothing else.
As for the lottery I'd like to see a rule that no team can be in the top 3 more than once every three years, unless they have one of the two worst records in the league AND they can point to some sort of extenuating circumstance justifying a redo. For instance, if the whole draft is bad, you shouldn't hold that against the team that happens to win the lottery that year. Or if they have some sort of injury problem that won't easily get better, like Brandon Roy and maybe Embiid.
superrific
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But why would the NBA do that? And more importantly, who would do it? Adam Silver, on his own accord? If anyone found out, he'd be in massive trouble, potentially criminal even -- def would lose his cushy job. A majority of the other owners, none of whom want the #1 pick that badly? Or who don't care if Dallas creates a juggernaut with the #1 pick and Davis/Irving?
And what would the league get? What does the league get out of Dallas having Cooper Flagg and not Washington or Utah?
lawtig02
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On further reflection, I would only do a lottery for teams 1-5, and I would have the following weighted odds:
1 - 40%
2 - 30%
3 - 15%
4 - 10%
5 - 5%
Starting with team 6, no lottery, just straight order of finish.
I wonder if the Sixers will use #3 to try to get off of the George and/or Embiid contracts?
I wonder what the Mavs can get for Gafford? Perhaps packaged with #14?
Zion's contract can be waived - making it oddly valuable in the 2nd Apron environment. If Tatum is down for 25-26 - could you get Brown for Zion and #7?
I wonder what the Mavs can get for Gafford? Perhaps packaged with #14?
Zion's contract can be waived - making it oddly valuable in the 2nd Apron environment. If Tatum is down for 25-26 - could you get Brown for Zion and #7?
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lawtig02
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I know. I hear you and my head says the league couldn't possibly be stupid enough to rig it, but such incredibly improbably things happen on such a regular basis, most of which benefit the higher profile teams, that it's hard to think it's really all just chance.
As for Dallas and Flagg, if I'm a conspiracist, the key was getting Luka to LA. That trade made no sense for the Mavs -- UNLESS they were promised Flagg in exchange.
sringwal
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The league got Luka playing for the Lakers, which is a huge ratings boost over him playing for the Mavs, particularly once Lebron retires.
superrific
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All right. Why does any other NBA owner want Luka in LA so badly? It's not going to meaningfully improve the league's revenues. It might help with the Lakers' revenues. But NBA owners would be having to screw themselves double: the Lakers get a star that they can't get, and then Dallas also gets a star they can't get. What's in it for anyone but the Lakers and Mavs?
I'm not sure that the NBA draft lottery is that incredibly improbable. There have been a lot of them. Longshots will win if you give them enough chances.
Remember that the relevant factor isn't the probability of the Mavs winning. You'd have the same complaint if the #9 worst team won the lottery. So we have to ask, "how often does a team outside the top 5 win the draft lottery" and I suspect the answer there would be pretty close to the adjusted odds.
sringwal
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You could also do something where the lottery is done for all non-playoff teams, but balls only get added in when you are 5 places away from where you finished. Teams 1-6 would start out in the lottery, and then the 7th team's balls get added in after the first team was picked, etc.
superrific
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Empirically I do not think this is true. It will be a boon for the Lakers' finances. It won't make much difference for the NBA. Certainly not enough for the other owners to authorize a weird under-the-table deal that primarily benefits Dallas and the Lakers.