Two days out and I'm already pretty much done with the hot takes, the post mortems, and most
definitely with the finger pointing. I got most things about this election wrong, but one thing I got right is that the result had been baked for months. I thought it was baked in Kamala's favor by 2-3 percentage points nationally and that would be enough. We now know it was about the same spread in the other direction. My mistake was thinking this was a movement election, when it was always, from Day 1, a change election. The incumbent party has never won when the incumbent's approval ratings were as low as Biden's have been for years. In hindsight, that's the only metric that really mattered.
How do we know this wasn't a movement election (and yes, that includes MAGA -- this election was not an approval of MAGA)? Because despite all the talk, the majority of Americans voted against pretty much all the movements.
- Latinos said they wanted a secure border AND a path to citizenship for law-abiding immigrants already here. The majority of the country, and millions of Latinos, voted for the guy who has promised to round up and deport every person who's not here legally.
- Arab Americans said they wanted an end to the war in Gaza. But the majority of Americans, and a substantial percentage of Arab Americans, voted for the guy who wants to build condos on Gaza's coastline after Israel finishes razing it.
- Young Americans said they wanted student loan relief. But the majority of Americans, and a near majority of young people, voted for the guy who wants to destroy higher education and has no interest whatsoever in providing relief for student loans.
- As much as I hate to say it, even the women and the men who support them who care so deeply about protecting their reproductive freedom did not really carry that through at the ballot box. Most groups of women, with a couple of notable exceptions, actually moved to Trump compared to pre-Dobbs elections.
- Fiscal conservatives said they wanted lower spending and a smaller deficit. But the majority of Americans, and the VAST majority of fiscal conservatives, voted for the guy who economists almost unanimously agree will explode the deficit.
- Most Americans said they wanted lower prices. But the majority of Americans voted for the guy whose tariff scheme will send inflation through the roof, and who made no effort whatsoever to lay out policies that would actually bring prices down (much less without destroying the economy).
- Most Americans said they wanted someone younger. But the majority of Americans voted for the guy who will be 82 at the end of his term, and whose cognitive decline is unmistakeable.
- Most Americans said they wanted someone less divisive and more unifying. But the majority of Americans voted for the guy who is without any doubt the most divisive and least inclusive politician, perhaps in American history, and at least in the last 165 years.
When it comes down to it, none of these movements were nearly as powerful as they made themselves out to be. All that mattered is that the great majority of Americans wanted change. They voted for change. And they don't really care what that change looks like as long as it's change. Now we get to see if the change they voted for is the change they wanted. I have a feeling the answer will be no. And if that's the case, Dems should be able to jump all over it over the next few years.
Last comment -- the one group I feel the most sympathy for is transgendered Americans. Two reasons for that. First, we'll never know, but I have a strong hunch that group voted overwhelmingly for Kamala. They're just too small in numbers to make a difference. Second, we must remember that the first prisoners in most German concentration camps were not Jews. They were Gypsies. On its face, that made no sense. The European Gypsy community was small and did not really affect anyone's daily life. But it was a small group and easily demonized with very few true supporters, and the German fascists therefore found it convenient to use the Gypsies as a test case for the social purification plan they were developing. So it seems to be with transgendered Americans. It's easy to say transgender rights are a losing issue politically, and therefore Dems should throw that community under the bus. From a real politik perspective, I can see the wisdom in that. But I worry the transgender community will prove to be the foot in the door, like the Gypsies, and for that reason alone, I hope we never forget what the right wing apparatus did to them in this election.
aftermath.site