Pitt Biorhythms, Round 2, Tip @4

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SnoopRob said:
Eh, I'd say only when the other team is elite. I'm doing this off the top of my head, but the only 3 games where we weren't actually competitive were against Auburn, Alabama, and dook...aka, the top 3 teams in the current AP poll.
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It was (mostly) a joke.

ETA: Most of their games against good teams (UCLA, KU, MSU, UF, who else is good that they played), if not all, they went down by double-digits, having to make a huge run in the second half to get it close, a time in which the other teams let off the gas. I don't recall any of their games against good teams in which it was neck-and-neck throughout.

Having said that, folks around here know where I stand on this coaching staff, so there is no reason for me to regurgitate my feelings again. I'm glad the players pulled through today, and hopefully they'll continue to do that.
 
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stankeylegjones said:
It was (mostly) a joke.

ETA: Most of their games against good teams (UCLA, KU, MSU, UF, who else is good that they played), if not all, they went down by double-digits, having to make a huge run in the second half to get it close, a time in which the other teams let off the gas. I don't recall any of their games against good teams in which it was neck-and-neck throughout.

Having said that, folks around here know where I stand on this coaching staff, so there is no reason for me to regurgitate my feelings again. I'm glad the players pulled through today, and hopefully they'll continue to do that.
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Basketball is a game of runs. That’s how it often plays out.
 
Wasn't too up or down for this game and for some reason had the irrational feeling they were going to pull it out

I'm sure I'd be mad at another loss but think I've reached the point of indifference with this team

You've seen them play once, you've seen them play a million times. It's no longer enjoyable
 
stankeylegjones said:
In your mind, what does that phrase mean?
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The natural randomness of the scoring sequences results in there being “runs of points” during most games.

So using the fact that a team’s point total is somehow less legitimate because they held a lead or fell behind by X number of points at any given point of the game is foolish.
 
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Bigs23 said:
The natural randomness of the scoring sequences results in there being “runs of points” during most games.

So using the fact that a team’s point total is somehow less legitimate because they held a lead or fell behind by X number of points at any given point of the game is foolish.
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There's nothing random about one team outplaying another team for the first 20-30+ minutes.

Bigs, I get it, you're feeling very insecure about the basketball program now. The lack of consistency, lack of wins against good/elite teams, regression of players/team, etc., contribute to those feelings - it's natural to feel this way. However, the response should not be to bury your head in the sand, refusing to listen to the critiques. That leads to toxic positivity (to quote Snoop), and that will not help to correct things.

While they had some good moments yesterday, there was nothing that pointed to them "getting it," or anything that pointed to them "turning the corner." These next few games will be losses, barring some kind exceptional events. But, like I said before, my opinion of this staff has been noted many times, so there's no need for me to rehash it again. (My opinion is shared by those who's job it is to analyze basketball, many of which you can go listen to/read, so I'll point you to there if you ever come around and decide to face the issues plaguing this staff and team.)

Enjoy your Sunday, and Go Heels.
 
Bigs23 said:
The natural randomness of the scoring sequences results in there being “runs of points” during most games.

So using the fact that a team’s point total is somehow less legitimate because they held a lead or fell behind by X number of points at any given point of the game is foolish.
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While this is sort of true, it's also true that teams frequently take their foot off the gas when they are way up. There's also garbage time. Compare two scenarios:

1. Team A gets a 20 point lead in the first 10 minutes; the lead never drops below 16 and the final margin is 25;
2. The teams trade baskets for 30 minutes, and in the last 10 minutes Team A makes a big push and wins going away, by 25.

I think everyone would consider situation 1 to be a "laugher"; ,most would consider situation 2 to be something different, a close game that got away from B. There's some irrational cognitive bias built in there (basically the two situations have the same distribution of baskets, just in reverse), but there's also some truth to the distinction.

I have no opinion as to how this applies to our team -- just making an observation.
 
stankeylegjones said:
There's nothing random about one team outplaying another team for the first 20-30+ minutes.

Bigs, I get it, you're feeling very insecure about the basketball program now. The lack of consistency, lack of wins against good/elite teams, regression of players/team, etc., contribute to those feelings - it's natural to feel this way. However, the response should not be to bury your head in the sand, refusing to listen to the critiques. That leads to toxic positivity (to quote Snoop), and that will not help to correct things.

While they had some good moments yesterday, there was nothing that pointed to them "getting it," or anything that pointed to them "turning the corner." These next few games will be losses, barring some kind exceptional events. But, like I said before, my opinion of this staff has been noted many times, so there's no need for me to rehash it again. (My opinion is shared by those who's job it is to analyze basketball, many of which you can go listen to/read, so I'll point you to there if you ever come around and decide to face the issues plaguing this staff and team.)

Enjoy your Sunday, and Go Heels.
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You’re fighting the math.

I wasn’t addressing anything else.
 
superrific said:
While this is sort of true, it's also true that teams frequently take their foot off the gas when they are way up. There's also garbage time. Compare two scenarios:

1. Team A gets a 20 point lead in the first 10 minutes; the lead never drops below 16 and the final margin is 25;
2. The teams trade baskets for 30 minutes, and in the last 10 minutes Team A makes a big push and wins going away, by 25.

I think everyone would consider situation 1 to be a "laugher"; ,most would consider situation 2 to be something different, a close game that got away from B. There's some irrational cognitive bias built in there (basically the two situations have the same distribution of baskets, just in reverse), but there's also some truth to the distinction.

I have no opinion as to how this applies to our team -- just making an observation.
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You’re parsing out situational and subjective stuff. I’m speaking to the math.
 
Bigs23 said:
You’re parsing out situational and subjective stuff. I’m speaking to the math.
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But the math doesn't tell the whole story. What do you think of person's A final response in this hypothetical conversation:

A: Mathematically, UNC has a 20% chance of beating Duke
B: But RJ, Drake, and Seth are injured and not playing.
A: I'm just talking about the math, not situational stuff.

I understand your point in general, but your analysis doesn't tell the whole story. FTR, I think I read some research a while back showing that scoring isn't actually fully random; rather, teams were more likely to score a basket after giving up a three possession swing (i.e. not scoring on previous two possessions; giving up points on three). I don't know where I read it, and it might not be valid any more. Not going to vouch for that, just mention it.
 
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