Bigs23
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Better teams will score more points and have bigger runs, no doubt.But the math doesn't tell the whole story. What do you think of person's A final response in this hypothetical conversation:
A: Mathematically, UNC has a 20% chance of beating Duke
B: But RJ, Drake, and Seth are injured and not playing.
A: I'm just talking about the math, not situational stuff.
I understand your point in general, but your analysis doesn't tell the whole story. FTR, I think I read some research a while back showing that scoring isn't actually fully random; rather, teams were more likely to score a basket after giving up a three possession swing (i.e. not scoring on previous two possessions; giving up points on three). I don't know where I read it, and it might not be valid any more. Not going to vouch for that, just mention it.
There is certainly nuance but I don’t think you can really devalue the point margins on a one or two possession game.