Politics 2028

Centerpiece said:
There's a couple of different ways to look at this:
1) Who do you think stands a chance of getting the Dem nomination AND who stands a chance of winning it all in 2028
2) Who do you LIKE, and who would YOU like to see be successful at #1 - whether or not they stand a snowball's chance?

Right now, I'm only addressing #2: I like Andy, I like Newsom, I like Roy and/or Jeff Jack, I like Whitmer, I like Shapiro, I like Walz.

Given those names - who do I think stands a chance at #1? That's a good question
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I would agree that at this point in time its about the "beauty pageant" aspect which I believe comports to your #2. I simply question if he has political legs based on his popularity in his red state. One reason he is popular in that state is because he couldn't do anything to cross his legislature. Thus, his political skill can be questioned at this point in time.
 
I keep seeing AOC as one of the front runners, we shouldn't write her off, etc.

Would Dems actually run another female?

The fact that a black male won before female can't be a coincidence.
 
ZenMode said:
I keep seeing AOC as one of the front runners, we shouldn't write her off, etc.

Would Dems actually run another female?

The fact that a black male won before female can't be a coincidence.
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No chance at all Dems will run another female against Trump. He can only win against women as we’ve seen twice.
 
BlueSmoke said:
I would agree that at this point in time its about the "beauty pageant" aspect which I believe comports to your #2. I simply question if he has political legs based on his popularity in his red state. One reason he is popular in that state is because he couldn't do anything to cross his legislature. Thus, his political skill can be questioned at this point in time.
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Circling back around to this. I tend to agree, but political skill only applies to Dems. Pubs don't give 2 shits about that. Dems need to quit thinking they need to "when they go low, we go high". Nice quote Michelle. But let it be known, Michelle herself abandoned that line. Time for Dems as a party to do the same. Abandon that shit.
 
sringwal said:
AOC is the future of the party, but it is going to be at least 10 more years before I see her as a viable candidate for president.
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10?
Ha!
Try first to gain back the right for a woman to vote.
Remember, the goal is to take us back to the 1850's. That's what MAGA stands for.
One of my best friends is 3/5 of a human being by those parameters.
Women? Ha!
Barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen.
Two steps back, and one to my left.
 
sringwal said:
AOC is the future of the party, but it is going to be at least 10 more years before I see her as a viable candidate for president.
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If she can run and beat Schumer in 2028 and then win the general NY Senate election - and I think she can and will - then she might be a viable candidate in 2032, depending on how things go for Democrats in the 2028 presidential election.
 
Dems need to look to Gavin Newsom and his approach these days.
To hell with this play the nice guy crap. “They go low, we go high”. Ha! How quaint.
GET ON SOCIAL MEDIA IN ALL CAPS AND BLAST AWAY.
Tell me, what have you got to lose?
At this point? Not a damn thing.
 
Centerpiece said:
Dems need to look to Gavin Newsom and his approach these days.
To hell with this play the nice guy crap. “They go low, we go high”. Ha! How quaint.
GET ON SOCIAL MEDIA IN ALL CAPS AND BLAST AWAY.
Tell me, what have you got to lose?
At this point? Not a damn thing.
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To me, the only reasonable path is to simultaneously offer that as Americans we are better than this while never relenting on just how patheticly sad, humiliating, and downright mean spirited the current Republican party is. Make it personal. Remind everyone that these Republicans don't even like themselves much less like the American people.

Of course, I see that as the cathartic path because I dont think there is a political path.
 

Elon Musk Pledged to Start a Political Party. He Is Already Pumping the Brakes.​

Billionaire seeks to maintain ties with JD Vance, potential heir to Trump’s MAGA political movement​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy...8?st=jU4d4N&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… Musk and his associates have told people close to him that he is considering using some of his vast financial resources to back Vance if he decides to run for president in 2028, some of the people said. Musk spent close to $300 million to support Trump and other Republicans in the 2024 election. …”
 
nycfan said:

Elon Musk Pledged to Start a Political Party. He Is Already Pumping the Brakes.​

Billionaire seeks to maintain ties with JD Vance, potential heir to Trump’s MAGA political movement​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy...8?st=jU4d4N&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… Musk and his associates have told people close to him that he is considering using some of his vast financial resources to back Vance if he decides to run for president in 2028, some of the people said. Musk spent close to $300 million to support Trump and other Republicans in the 2024 election. …”
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This makes sense for Musk in his world. A natural fit I guess.
Some on another thread claimed Vance would NOT be the heir apparent - that some other MAGA would materialize. I doubt that. It's JD's to lose, and with Mu$k backing him, and MAGA being Maga, it will be a formidable hill to climb for JD's opponent.
 
ZenMode said:
I keep seeing AOC as one of the front runners, we shouldn't write her off, etc.

Would Dems actually run another female?

The fact that a black male won before female can't be a coincidence.
Click to expand...
I mean - I think if Dems had run a good female candidate in 2008, they would have won. Would it have been a tougher fight than Obama had? Maybe. Is it truthfully harder to elect a woman than a black man? Maybe. I'm not sure that a black man getting elected first is really proof of anything, though; more like a "right person in the right place at the right time" scenario.

As for AOC: I personally think she has a great future in national politics. There absolutely would be some headwinds from within the party against her, both ideological and from the consultant set who would be worried about the "can a woman win" angle you're referencing. But if the 2028 election ends up being a 2008-esqure backlash over Republicans tanking the economy to try to help the rich again, then I absolutely think she could win in that environment. If that's no the environment, maybe tougher, but it might also be tough for a centrist white guy to win too.
 
I’m definitely not saying that he can’t or wouldn’t win in 2028, but JD Vance is about the best possible MAGA candidate the Democrats could hope to run against in 2028. He’s got a personality as appealing as a mildewed dishrag, he comes across as soft, doughy, and effeminate (note for nycfan: I am not saying that feminine characteristics are bad. I’m saying that to the ultra faux masculine MAGA movement, being effeminate is not the ticket), and he’s married to a brown woman and has brown children. He has no charisma, no personality, enthralling or captivating characteristics. He comes across as smarmy.

It’s true that he will be backed by people like musk and Theil. That’s not nothing, but it does not do anything to help mobilize the low propensity voters who are a requirement for Republicans to win. I’d be a lot more nervous as a Democratic voter if the Republican opponent is someone like Brian Kemp or Glenn Youngkin, then I will be if it is JD freaking Vance.
 
sringwal said:
You all underestimate Vance at your own peril. The democratic propaganda machine needs to be pushing against him, right now, as hard as they do against Trump.
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It’s definitely entirely possible I’m underestimating fans. I freely admit that I underestimated Trump in 2024, which was stupid considering I had an entire decade worth of evidence that should have convinced me the folly of such.

JD Vance is no Donald Trump in any of the ways in which Donald Trump has successfully been able to commandeer the entire Republican Party and the entire conservative movement in America. That doesn’t mean that I don’t think that Vance can’t or won’t win, but I do feel a lot more confident if he is the Republican nominee in 2028 than I do otherwise.
 
CFordUNC said:
It’s definitely entirely possible I’m underestimating fans. I freely admit that I underestimated Trump in 2024, which was stupid considering I had an entire decade worth of evidence that should have convinced me the folly of such.

JD Vance is no Donald Trump in any of the ways in which Donald Trump has successfully been able to commandeer the entire Republican Party and the entire conservative movement in America. That doesn’t mean that I don’t think that Vance can’t or won’t win, but I do feel a lot more confident if he is the Republican nominee in 2028 than I do otherwise.
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If we aren't full on authoritarian fascist by then, I see Vance as being the key in the ignition that gets us there.
 
I continue to think Trump is a unique and inimitable event in American politics. Nobody else, including Vance, can come even close to replicating what Trump does in terms of commanding attention. If we survive the next 3.5 years, I think we will see late 2024 and early 2025 as the high water mark of MAGA's proto-fascist efforts to replace American democracy with autocracy. I don't think there's a MAGA without Trump, and I think Trump will be so deeply unpopular by January 2029 (assuming he's still alive then) that millions of Americans who voted for him in 2024 would deny it even under waterboarding.

I, like so many, have consistently underestimated Trump's ability to impact elections in which he's on the ballot. But MAGA has not done well in recent elections in which Trump is NOT on the ballot, and while I'm sure Trump would like to have it otherwise, I don't think he'll ever be on a ballot again. And if he is, we'll be at a point where there's nothing worth saving.
 
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