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Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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So the Kremlin is going to frame Ukraine for war crimes. And that's going to create outrage among Russians.

And if they need more outrage, in Moscow they can see they are being bombed by Ukraine. That's 21 million people in the Moscow Metro. Sure Russians will be outraged. But have a feeling they will see Putin as weak for allowing it to happen.
 
Ukraine
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As geopolitical conflict continues to evolve and expand, I'm just thankful we have a president who is acutely aware and knowledgeable of the global complexities and U.S. national security risks as we continue to refine and implement our foreign policies.
 

“… At the height of the offensive, Ukrainian forces controlled some 500 square miles of Russian territory. By Sunday, they were clinging to barely 30 square miles along the Russia-Ukraine border, according to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.

“The end of the battle is coming,” Mr. Paroinen said in a phone interview.

How much Russian territory Ukraine still controls in Kursk could not be independently confirmed, and soldiers reported fierce fighting was ongoing. But the fighting near the border is now less about holding Russian land, Ukrainian soldiers said, and more about trying to prevent Russian forces from pouring into the Sumy region of Ukraine and opening a new front in the war.


Andrii, a Ukrainian intelligence officer fighting in Kursk, put it more bluntly: “The Kursk operation is essentially over” he said. “Now we need to stabilize the situation.”

The Kursk operation was seen by some analysts as an unnecessary gamble, stretching Ukraine’s troops and leading to heavy casualties at a time when they were already struggling to defend a long front line in their own country. But it provided a much-needed morale boost to Ukraine, which had sought to show it could bring the war home to Russia and had hoped the territory it occupied there would serve as leverage in any cease-fire negotiations.

While Kyiv has managed to stall Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine, the turn in Kursk comes as the Trump administration is pushing for a quick truce. …”
 

“… At the height of the offensive, Ukrainian forces controlled some 500 square miles of Russian territory. By Sunday, they were clinging to barely 30 square miles along the Russia-Ukraine border, according to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.

“The end of the battle is coming,” Mr. Paroinen said in a phone interview.

How much Russian territory Ukraine still controls in Kursk could not be independently confirmed, and soldiers reported fierce fighting was ongoing. But the fighting near the border is now less about holding Russian land, Ukrainian soldiers said, and more about trying to prevent Russian forces from pouring into the Sumy region of Ukraine and opening a new front in the war.


Andrii, a Ukrainian intelligence officer fighting in Kursk, put it more bluntly: “The Kursk operation is essentially over” he said. “Now we need to stabilize the situation.”

The Kursk operation was seen by some analysts as an unnecessary gamble, stretching Ukraine’s troops and leading to heavy casualties at a time when they were already struggling to defend a long front line in their own country. But it provided a much-needed morale boost to Ukraine, which had sought to show it could bring the war home to Russia and had hoped the territory it occupied there would serve as leverage in any cease-fire negotiations.

While Kyiv has managed to stall Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine, the turn in Kursk comes as the Trump administration is pushing for a quick truce. …”
“… The reversal of Ukraine’s fortunes in Kursk did not come down to any one factor. Russian forces pounded Ukraine’s supply lines and began to cut off escape routes. North Korean troops brought in by Moscow, who faltered at first, improved their combat capabilities. And at a crucial moment, U.S. support — including intelligence sharing — was put on hold.

… However, despite claims to the contrary made by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Trump, at no point were large numbers of Kyiv’s forces surrounded, according to military analysts who use geolocated combat footage to map battlefield developments, Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk and even some prominent Russian military bloggers. …”
 
Back to the some analysts see Ukraine's Kursk operation as an unnecessary gamble.

(1) It diverted Russian resources away from the Eastern front and that front has broadly stabilized. Plus, Ukraine is actually making some minor but strategic gains there.
(2) Russia now has to protect its soft underbelly which is going to tie up even more resources over the course of this war.
(3) And, going forward, its hard to see how Russia can make a military breakthrough being that it is so stretched out.
 

Trump’s Plan to Discuss Ukraine’s Power Plants With Putin Prompts Questions​

The call, scheduled for Tuesday, will be the first known conversation between the two leaders since Mr. Putin laid out numerous conditions for a cease-fire with Ukraine.


“…
Mr. Putin has not yet agreed to the 30-day cease-fire that U.S. officials proposed after talks with Ukrainian officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. He has said the idea was “the right one and we definitely support it” — but laid out numerous conditions that could delay or derail any truce.

“There are questions that we need to discuss, and I think that we need to talk them through with our American colleagues and partners,” he told a news conference on Thursday.

… With its advance in Kursk, Russia can show Mr. Trump that it holds the momentum on the battlefield. Battlefield maps compiled by both Russian and Western groups analyzing combat footage and satellite images show that Russian forces have already crossed into Ukraine’s Sumy region from Kursk, in what analysts say may be an effort to flank and encircle the remaining Ukrainian troops in Kursk or open a new front in the war.

Mr. Zelensky has accused Russia to preparing to mount a larger offensive into the Sumy region, which is home to hundreds of thousands of people. Those actions, he said, indicated that Mr. Putin was not interested in peace.

Since the American proposal for a cease-fire, Mr. Zelensky said on Sunday night, “Russia stole almost another week — a week of war that only Russia wants.” …”
 

Trump’s Plan to Discuss Ukraine’s Power Plants With Putin Prompts Questions​

The call, scheduled for Tuesday, will be the first known conversation between the two leaders since Mr. Putin laid out numerous conditions for a cease-fire with Ukraine.


“…
Mr. Putin has not yet agreed to the 30-day cease-fire that U.S. officials proposed after talks with Ukrainian officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. He has said the idea was “the right one and we definitely support it” — but laid out numerous conditions that could delay or derail any truce.

“There are questions that we need to discuss, and I think that we need to talk them through with our American colleagues and partners,” he told a news conference on Thursday.

… With its advance in Kursk, Russia can show Mr. Trump that it holds the momentum on the battlefield. Battlefield maps compiled by both Russian and Western groups analyzing combat footage and satellite images show that Russian forces have already crossed into Ukraine’s Sumy region from Kursk, in what analysts say may be an effort to flank and encircle the remaining Ukrainian troops in Kursk or open a new front in the war.

Mr. Zelensky has accused Russia to preparing to mount a larger offensive into the Sumy region, which is home to hundreds of thousands of people. Those actions, he said, indicated that Mr. Putin was not interested in peace.

Since the American proposal for a cease-fire, Mr. Zelensky said on Sunday night, “Russia stole almost another week — a week of war that only Russia wants.” …”
“… The reference to “power plants” by Mr. Trump was the latest indication that they might factor into any such diplomacy around a cease-fire. While the president did not elaborate, his comments came on the same day Mr. Witkoff mentioned a “nuclear reactor” in an interview with CBS News.

That appeared be a reference to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine, which Russia seized early in the war and still controls.

The six-reactor plant, Europe’s largest, has not supplied power to Ukraine’s grid since its capture. Its proximity to frontline fighting has long raised concerns about the risk of a radiological disaster.


At the same time, energy experts say, the nuclear plant is in poor condition after three years of war and restoring full operations would require a lot of time and investment from Russia. That could mean Russia might see an incentive to try to trade it for something else, such as the easing of Western sanctions on the Russian economy, experts say.

Victoria Voytsitska, a former lawmaker and senior member of the Ukrainian Parliament’s energy committee, noted that Moscow had long sought to resume oil and gas exports to Western countries. Those exports, a crucial source of revenue for Russia’s government, largely stopped after the war began, as European countries moved to wean themselves off Russian energy supplies and imposed sanctions on Russian energy companies.”

——
Putin almost seems to be enticing Trump with some shared American-Russian deal for the nuclear plant that Russian already controls ( that would likely involve the USA shouldering restoring it) and calling that a Russian concession to get other advantages in the peace deal.
 
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