Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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politicalwire.com

Trump's Ukraine Ceasefire Is Slipping Away

The Economist: "Another sign of the times is that Pentagon figures recently questioned one ally about why it was still supplying weapons to Ukraine—a challenge that was ignored. Diplomats in Washington also report that some
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

“… Diplomats in Washington also report that some Trump aides say privately that they are ‘fed up’ with Europe’s effort to strengthen Ukraine. As always with such a chaotic administration, it is hard to distinguish the true signal from the noise.“
 


“… Mr. Trump seemingly now wants to apply to autos the universal protectionism that made Ghana an industrial powerhouse. How wrong this turn might be is hard to exaggerate. Many towns hurt in the 1990s have clawed back with new industrial investments. These projects risk being wrecked all over again by Mr. Trump’s import taxes and foreign retaliation. And that’s just the beginning.

Team Trump, given its lack of institutional roots, is especially susceptible to losing all possibility of movement if it loses a base of support in public opinion. That includes progress toward a Ukraine settlement and much else.

What an opportunity the new administration is throwing away: Russia’s incompetent aggression in Europe. China’s gift for alienating friends and neighbors in its region.

The phrase “second American century” once issued from the lips of analysts. On “liberation day,” those words died on the wind.

America’s manufacturing problems of today aren’t the problems of the 1980s and ’90s. China is an epochal threat not because it steals our coat-hanger factories.

But we should be precise about the real failing here. Mr. Trump’s politics of the noisy gesture fall short when paired with a team that, contrary to expectations, appears to be less capable of consistent strategic applications of effort than even the first Trump administration.
 
nycfan said:
a team that, contrary to expectations, appears to be less capable of consistent strategic applications of effort than even the first Trump administration.
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Wait. WTF? Who's expectations had Trump team 2.0 being anything other than massively inferior to the trainwreck that was Trump 1.0?
 
So to have enough tanks and stuff for the May 9th parade, Kazakhstan is sending their military equipment to Moscow according to pictures. Interesting, there had been rumors that Trump was wanting to go to that parade. Now that would be an embarrassment for a number of reasons.

Seems Russia may have asked Indonesia if it could stash its expensive bombers at an air base there so Ukraine couldn't get to them. Indonesia refused if the reports are to be believed.

And Russia is really getting dependent on North Korean artillery shells and other military hardware. Up to 20 billion by reports.

Something tells me this war is not really going well for Putin.
 
nycfan said:


“… Mr. Trump seemingly now wants to apply to autos the universal protectionism that made Ghana an industrial powerhouse.
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LOL, I love this quote. Not a fan of Holman Jenkins at all, but this captures the reality of tariffs.

There is SO MUCH empirical evidence that tariffs do not breed industry. Almost every country that has tried to tariff its way to prosperity, at least since WWI, has failed. China and Japan actually used non-tariff barriers to protect their markets. Non-tariff barriers are, in fact, real, and a lot of international trade law is focused on how to conceptualize them within the trading system.

The non-tariff barriers, of course, are not explanations for trade deficits. I don't even know whether Japan's barriers remain (I suspect not). Europe has almost no non-tariff barriers, and Canada has none (with the possible exception of the weird dairy-trade relationship up there in cheese country).
 


“The US will abandon its efforts “within days” to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine unless there are clear signs a settlement can be reached, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has said, as Kyiv says it has signed a memorandum with the US over a controversial minerals deal.

Speaking in Paris on Friday after meeting European and Ukrainian leaders, Rubio said Donald Trump was still interested in a deal. But he added that the US president had many other priorities around the world and was willing to move on unless there were signs of progress.

…Since Trump returned to the White House in January he has piled pressure on Ukraine, stopping most US military assistance and temporarily cutting off intelligence sharing. This week he falsely blamed Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Joe Biden for “starting” the war.

In contrast, Trump has refused to criticise Vladimir Putin or to impose sanctions on or punish Moscow. Senior US officials – including the special envoy Steve Witkoff, who held talks last week with Putin in St Petersburg – have instead parroted Kremlin talking points.

…Meanwhile, significant details of the minerals deal remain unclear, including whether Kyiv has agreed to a White House demand that it “pays back” the cost of earlier military assistance. …”
 
nycfan said:


…Meanwhile, significant details of the minerals deal remain unclear, including whether Kyiv has agreed to a White House demand that it “pays back” the cost of earlier military assistance. …”
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“… According to the latest draft, seen by the Guardian, Ukraine acknowledges the “significant material and financial support” Kyiv has received from the US since Russia’s 2022 invasion and the desire from both countries for a “lasting peace”.

It says Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, will visit Washington next week to hold final “technical talks” with Bessent. They are expected to complete discussions on a “reconstruction investment fund”, the memo adds.

The deal would need to be ratified by Ukraine’s parliament, Ukraine’s deputy minister of economy said on Friday. …”
 
nycfan said:


“The US will abandon its efforts “within days” to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine unless there are clear signs a settlement can be reached, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has said, as Kyiv says it has signed a memorandum with the US over a controversial minerals deal.

Speaking in Paris on Friday after meeting European and Ukrainian leaders, Rubio said Donald Trump was still interested in a deal. But he added that the US president had many other priorities around the world and was willing to move on unless there were signs of progress.

…Since Trump returned to the White House in January he has piled pressure on Ukraine, stopping most US military assistance and temporarily cutting off intelligence sharing. This week he falsely blamed Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Joe Biden for “starting” the war.

In contrast, Trump has refused to criticise Vladimir Putin or to impose sanctions on or punish Moscow. Senior US officials – including the special envoy Steve Witkoff, who held talks last week with Putin in St Petersburg – have instead parroted Kremlin talking points.

…Meanwhile, significant details of the minerals deal remain unclear, including whether Kyiv has agreed to a White House demand that it “pays back” the cost of earlier military assistance. …”
Click to expand...

Sounds an awful lot like, “Give us all your minerals or we’ll stop doing even the very minimal things we’re doing right now to help you.”
 




I dunno — if Putin won’t play ball and give Trump a ceasefire he claimed would be easily obtained in a day, and Ukraine signs the minerals deal, does Trump reject the minerals deal “win” and embrace Putin and Russia anyway? Even for a Russophile like Trump (OK, more of a Putinophile?) that seems like curious politics.
 
BTW, the so-called ceasefire on energy infrastructure expired yesterday… not sure it was ever actually observed but now the sides can drop the pretense.
 
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