Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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Purple Nurple said:
May not want to take victory lap yet. Inflation is set to be down for the first time since September and the 10 year is down as well.
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The 10 year is only down because the market is expecting a recession, LOL.

Inflation is going up. I don't know what you're talking about. Inflation is currently on a run rate of about 6% per year. Maybe you are talking about YoY, but YoY statistics for inflation mean nothing because they are cumulative. If inflation is indeed down in Feb, it will be mostly because of what happened from March 2024-January 2024. Only a small portion of the YoY numbers reflects what is going on right now. That's not a Trump thing; that's an all the time math thing.

Basically the story with interest rates was: they were gradually dropping, reaching their lowest point the day after the Kamala/Trump debate that she clearly won. Not kidding at all. And that makes sense -- it was the time in which Kamala's chances looked best, perhaps. After that they went up in October, and then kept going up through November - February.

They have been falling, but that's primarily because the GDP indicators are turning negative. The market is clearly expecting the economy to crater, and thus for the Fed to lower rates. Whether the fed can really do that is a different question.
 
superrific said:
The 10 year is only down because the market is expecting a recession, LOL.

Inflation is going up. I don't know what you're talking about. Inflation is currently on a run rate of about 6% per year. Maybe you are talking about YoY, but YoY statistics for inflation mean nothing because they are cumulative. If inflation is indeed down in Feb, it will be mostly because of what happened from March 2024-January 2024. Only a small portion of the YoY numbers reflects what is going on right now. That's not a Trump thing; that's an all the time math thing.

Basically the story with interest rates was: they were gradually dropping, reaching their lowest point the day after the Kamala/Trump debate that she clearly won. Not kidding at all. And that makes sense -- it was the time in which Kamala's chances looked best, perhaps. After that they went up in October, and then kept going up through November - February.

They have been falling, but that's primarily because the GDP indicators are turning negative. The market is clearly expecting the economy to crater, and thus for the Fed to lower rates. Whether the fed can really do that is a different question.
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So you do understand that with a recession looming and the job market falling apart, interest rates don't generally move up. Great.

If you can produce one piece of data that shows an expectation for inflation to be 6% I would be highly surprised.
 
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Purple Nurple said:
So you do understand that with a recession looming and the job market falling apart, interest rates don't generally move up. Great.

If you can produce one piece of data that shows an expectation for inflation to be 6% I would be highly surprised.
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Why are you trying to talk down to me?

I didn't say the expectation was 6% inflation. That's what the inflation is right now. The last two months have been 0.4% in Dec and 0.5% in Jan. That's close to 6% annually. And that's before tariffs. The tariffs from China are now 20%.

The only thing keeping inflation down right now is the looming recession, which is not good. If Trump takes away the tariffs and doesn't put any more in, then 6% will probably be the cap. But is he going to do that?
 
CFordUNC said:
I think the United States should be removed from Five Eyes and from Pine Gap.
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I doubt Australia could exclude the US from Pine Gap; they might be able to stop the US from sending replacement personnel to the facility.

I expect the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are already restricting what they share with they US.
 
Zoo_View said:
I doubt Australia could exclude the US from Pine Gap; they might be able to stop the US from sending replacement personnel to the facility.

I expect the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are already restricting what they share with they US.
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Good points, both of those.
 
SnoopRob said:
You know you've fallen far when the French are ready to go to war and you're happy being on the sidelines.

I wonder if the French will start referring to American cheese as freedom cheese?
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For all you Europe slurpers and Russian economy experts. Laughable anyone thought we should keep funding Ukraine because we could just wait Russia out as their economy is about to collapse. I said many times as long as the oil flows they can keep waging war.

Europe is bankrolling the Kremlin War machine: talk of unity is nonsense
 
Looks like trump knows a bit more than the ZZL experts and is the only one who seems to have a grasp on the futility of continued war. He may prevent WW3

“Take sanctions. They were meant to bring the Russian economy to its knees and cripple Putin’s war machine. Perhaps they might have, if Europe had been willing to give up the fatal addiction to Russian energy that Trump repeatedly warned about back in 2017. Since the invasion the Kremlin has made close to a trillion dollars from oil and gas sales – much of it from European customers.”

“But in any case the UK has little to do with this in principle or practice. And as Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk admitted after the London meeting, there was “no unity” on seizing Russian assets in Europe. Though all leaders present agreed it was a good idea, he said that some countries “feared the consequences either for the euro or the banking system”.

“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. If European leaders’ tweets were missiles, the Kremlin would now be a smoking ruin. But what Ukraine really needs is a swift end to hostilities and practical help to become free, prosperous and independent. Everything else is just virtue signalling, paid for in Ukrainians’ blood.”
 
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