Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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Jeff is a Carolina undergrad and PHD who teaches at UNC Greensboro. He grew up in Liberty, NC. He is a solid scholar, teacher, and huge Carolina basketball fan.
 

Kyiv Is On the Clock to Respond to Trump Plan to End Ukraine Conflict​

U.S. proposal includes recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and blocking Ukraine from joining NATO​


🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ky...99?st=kdtGQ9&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… The U.S. is now waiting for Kyiv’s response, which is expected to come at a meeting of U.S., Ukrainian and European officials in London later this week. Then if there is a convergence among the American, European and Ukrainian positions, the proposals could be floated to Moscow.

To put pressure on Ukraine and Russia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that the administration may pause its negotiating efforts if headway isn’t made on core issues in the next several weeks.

… The U.S. diplomatic push is intended to set the stage for a cease-fire, which would be broadly along current battle lines, and an eventual settlement.

Accepting some of the Trump administration’s ideas could prove difficult for Kyiv since Ukraine has refused to accept that Russia has a legal claim to any of its territory. …”
 
American aid has pretty much run out so Ukraine is unlikely to give Trump much in response to this. Trump might threaten to stop intelligence flow to Ukraine, but I wonder if he's under pressure from Republican Senators not to go that far or to give Russia too much like sanctions relief.
 

U.S. proposes recognizing Crimea as Russian ahead of new round of talks​

Ukraine and its European allies will be meeting with top U.S. officials in London on Wednesday to discuss the proposals, which may not sit well with Kyiv.


“… Ukraine’s allies are hoping to win security guarantees and reconstruction programs for the embattled country in exchange for any such territorial concessions.

The U.S. proposals, presented to Ukraine in Paris last week, include having Washington formally recognize annexed Crimea as Russian territory and eventually lifting sanctions against Russia under a future accord, according to three people familiar with the matter.

In exchange, Moscow would end hostilities in Ukraine at a time when Russia’s military enjoys battlefield momentum and sizable advantages in troop strength and weaponry.

… A Western official said the terms of the proposed deal and concessions expected of Ukraine were “astounding.” Like others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic conversations.

… European, and even Ukrainian, officials acknowledge privately that Kyiv is unlikely to regain control of the Russian-controlled territories any time soon.

At best, they are hoping to slow the rush to any agreement that allows Moscow to hang on to conquered lands and come out from under sanctions, without first winning significant benefits for Ukraine.

“There is concern that Trump is trying to push the Ukrainians and hasn’t been tough enough on Russia,” said Mujtaba Rahman, a managing director at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.

“The ultimate question now is, what does Ukraine get in exchange for giving up part of its territory?” …”
 
On the battlefields of Ukraine, new sights emerge. Thread-like filaments of wire, extended across open fields. Netting rigged up between trees along key supply roads. Both are responses to a hard-to-detect weapon able to sneak into spaces previously thought safe, hi tech and low tech all at once.

At a secret workshop in Ukraine’s north-east, where about 20 people assemble hundreds of FPV (first person view) drones, there is a new design. Under the frame of the familiar quadcopter is a cylinder, the size of a forearm. Coiled up inside is fibre optic cable, 10km (6 miles) or even 20km long, to create a wired kamikaze drone.


Capt Yuriy Fedorenko, the commander of a specialist drone unit, the Achilles regiment, says fibre optic drones were an experimental response to battlefield jamming and rapidly took off late last year. With no radio connection, they cannot be jammed, are difficult to detect and able to fly in ways conventional FPV drones cannot.

“If pilots are experienced, they can fly these drones very low and between the trees in a forest or tree line. If you are flying with a regular drone, the trees block the signal unless you have a re-transmitter close,” he observes. Where tree lined supply roads were thought safer, fibre optic drones have been able to get through.

A video from a Russian military Telegram channel from last month demonstrates their ominous capability. A fibre optic drone, the nose of the yellow cylinder housing the coil clearly visible, flies with precision a few centimetres from the ground, to strike a Ukrainian howitzer concealed in a barn, a location clearly previously considered safe.

Soldiers have quickly come to fear them. Oleksii, a combat medic, working in Pokrovsk, the busiest front in Ukraine’s east, says daytime evacuations of the wounded, already very difficult, have become impossible. “It’s just not happening now there are fibre optic drones. They cannot be jammed and for now they are the main concern for the guys on the frontline,” he said.

But as Fedorenko acknowledges, it is Russia that, at least for now, “is well ahead of us” – largely because Moscow has had greater access to fibre optic cabling, with Ukraine scrambling to catch up. Fibre optic drones were heavily used in Russia’s counterattack in Kursk and experts believe they were an element in Moscow’s success in largely rolling up Ukraine’s salient in March.

Experts estimate that drones of all types now contribute to about 70% to 80% of military casualties on both sides. As for fibre optic craft, Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the Center for Naval Analyses, said they appear to be proving useful at the start of an assault, in an environment where cheap remotely piloted vehicles are increasingly taking the place of artillery.
 
On the battlefields of Ukraine, new sights emerge. Thread-like filaments of wire, extended across open fields. Netting rigged up between trees along key supply roads. Both are responses to a hard-to-detect weapon able to sneak into spaces previously thought safe, hi tech and low tech all at once.

At a secret workshop in Ukraine’s north-east, where about 20 people assemble hundreds of FPV (first person view) drones, there is a new design. Under the frame of the familiar quadcopter is a cylinder, the size of a forearm. Coiled up inside is fibre optic cable, 10km (6 miles) or even 20km long, to create a wired kamikaze drone.


Capt Yuriy Fedorenko, the commander of a specialist drone unit, the Achilles regiment, says fibre optic drones were an experimental response to battlefield jamming and rapidly took off late last year. With no radio connection, they cannot be jammed, are difficult to detect and able to fly in ways conventional FPV drones cannot.

“If pilots are experienced, they can fly these drones very low and between the trees in a forest or tree line. If you are flying with a regular drone, the trees block the signal unless you have a re-transmitter close,” he observes. Where tree lined supply roads were thought safer, fibre optic drones have been able to get through.

A video from a Russian military Telegram channel from last month demonstrates their ominous capability. A fibre optic drone, the nose of the yellow cylinder housing the coil clearly visible, flies with precision a few centimetres from the ground, to strike a Ukrainian howitzer concealed in a barn, a location clearly previously considered safe.

Soldiers have quickly come to fear them. Oleksii, a combat medic, working in Pokrovsk, the busiest front in Ukraine’s east, says daytime evacuations of the wounded, already very difficult, have become impossible. “It’s just not happening now there are fibre optic drones. They cannot be jammed and for now they are the main concern for the guys on the frontline,” he said.

But as Fedorenko acknowledges, it is Russia that, at least for now, “is well ahead of us” – largely because Moscow has had greater access to fibre optic cabling, with Ukraine scrambling to catch up. Fibre optic drones were heavily used in Russia’s counterattack in Kursk and experts believe they were an element in Moscow’s success in largely rolling up Ukraine’s salient in March.

Experts estimate that drones of all types now contribute to about 70% to 80% of military casualties on both sides. As for fibre optic craft, Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the Center for Naval Analyses, said they appear to be proving useful at the start of an assault, in an environment where cheap remotely piloted vehicles are increasingly taking the place of artillery.




 
I was off by a couple days. It took till Wednesday.

Someone should tell Trump, that if he wants to play cards with Zelensky and Putin, that he's got to ante up something. Otherwise, mind his own business.
 
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