superrific
Inconceivable Member
- Messages
- 3,319
So I feel good about MI and WI. I'm worried about PA. One source of optimism has been this idea of a "firewall" of early ballots. That is, if Dems can get at least 400K more Dem voters to vote early (without knowing who they vote for) than Pubs, that will be a good sign for election day.
But where did this number come from? I had thought it had come from the campaign, but actually I can't find that. I've seen some references on reddit -- and how could anything on reddit be wrong -- to a single data analyst who was pushing this idea and had maybe made it up. Anyway, supposedly the number has increased to 410K and then to 430K. We're going to hit 400K. I don't know if we will hit 430K.
Oh, and then this data analyst said that the firewall was actually what is necessary to get this into tossup territory, which isn't what firewall usually means. I mean, sure, but that means if we miss it, according to this guy, we're not in great shape. And if it's 430K and not 400K . . .
But then there's this: this guy is some amateur. Says he has degrees in aviation management from Purdue and is a data analyst (but for whom and based on what, who knows). So maybe he doesn't know shit. He posts under his real name (one supposes) which is i suppose good; but his twitter handle is @blockedfreq, which does not inspire much confidence. I guess it's better than being catturd, but anyway.
Whoever found references to the blue firewall, where did you find it? Is there any actual legitimacy to it?
But where did this number come from? I had thought it had come from the campaign, but actually I can't find that. I've seen some references on reddit -- and how could anything on reddit be wrong -- to a single data analyst who was pushing this idea and had maybe made it up. Anyway, supposedly the number has increased to 410K and then to 430K. We're going to hit 400K. I don't know if we will hit 430K.
Oh, and then this data analyst said that the firewall was actually what is necessary to get this into tossup territory, which isn't what firewall usually means. I mean, sure, but that means if we miss it, according to this guy, we're not in great shape. And if it's 430K and not 400K . . .
But then there's this: this guy is some amateur. Says he has degrees in aviation management from Purdue and is a data analyst (but for whom and based on what, who knows). So maybe he doesn't know shit. He posts under his real name (one supposes) which is i suppose good; but his twitter handle is @blockedfreq, which does not inspire much confidence. I guess it's better than being catturd, but anyway.
Whoever found references to the blue firewall, where did you find it? Is there any actual legitimacy to it?