Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

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August and Seotember are historically the worst two months for stocks, and for the past 20 years, July has been the best month (following "sell in May and go awaY" has cost folks recently.
. This has held true for the most part in recent years. Tech stocks tend to rise the most and go down hte most so I usually take some profits and trim in mid-July, esp for leveraged items and the most volatile tech stocks.
 
heelslegup said:
August and Seotember are historically the worst two months for stocks, and for the past 20 years, July has been the best month (following "sell in May and go awaY" has cost folks recently.
. This has held true for the most part in recent years. Tech stocks tend to rise the most and go down hte most so I usually take some profits and trim in mid-July, esp for leveraged items and the most volatile tech stocks.
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Toss in the historical October stock market crashes :eek:
 
Hearing Trumo today lovingly describe how tariffs completely funded the US govt from 1897-1913 gives me pause on what might be coming.
And if nothing else hjigh tariffs are a terrible tax on middle and working class
 
ok guys, we have another opportunity for today for the TACO trade...

Trump has now threatened Canada with a 35% tariff and has instructed his stock portfolio to buy stocks hand over fist near the end of the day ( 3pm ? ) and early Monday as traders seek to dump heading into the weekend not knowing what next week will bring... but Trump knows;)

Sometime early next week he will announce that he is pausing the Canada 35% tariff hinting that Canada has called him to make a deal. The traders will respond true to form and the markets will recover the previous loss and maybe go higher than that.

I'm buying at the open on Monday and then selling a day or two after Taco announces the pause on Canada tariffs.
 
Assuming the NVDA news is true, I suspect the US govt allowing resumption of these licenses is tied to China resuming shipment or certaqin rare eartyh metals, esp the ones used by Pentago for stealth F35, The Pentagon has been scrammbing since China stopped thjoes in response to Trymp's tqariffs
 
If more of this happens then it feels like the market will eventually just have one single opinion or voice.
Already it feels like the market is detached from reality. I don't know that's because retail investors don't care about fundamentals or something else, but betterment, personal capital and many others already have robo-advisors, so I suspect everything becomes even more "hive mind". I don't know that means in terms of convincing people to ever sell.
 
For the best stocks article above, the top 10 had cululative returns from 30,000 to 155,000%. meaning $1,000 inveted over the past 25 years would have grown to $300,000/$1,555,000.
These lists of course always depend on the specific time frame. A list og best `10 over past 30 years wpuld be somewhat diferent.
Anyway, in order
MNST, NVDA, AAPL, BKNG, TSCO, TPL, ODFL, DECK, TYL, EXT (Comfort Systems)
 

Nvidia Orders 300,000 AI Chips as Sales Expected to Resume in China​


Key Takeaways​

  • Nvidia ordered 300,000 H20 chips from contract chipmaker TSMC, according to a report Monday.
  • Sales of H20 are expected to resume in China as President Donald Trump seemed to recently reverse course on tighter restrictions imposed earlier this year.
  • Nvidia's order adds to its existing stockpile of H20 chips and was driven by strong Chinese demand, the report said.
 
NVDA and AVGO deservedly get most of the semicondctor love but AMD has been on an even better streqak the past few months
 
This week (july 28-Aug 1 2025(, the S&P 500 reached an all-time closing high of 6388 and all-time intraday high of 6427/

I presume the market (owing to seasonal tendencies) will experience around a 10% correction at some poing during August, September or first half of October. For those who buy based on that sort of dip, the "buy more new shares" point would be around 5760. August and Sept are historically the two worst performing months of the stock market, For Nasdaq 100 I use a 15% drop gauge for that index: those are fairly common, normal and healthy.
 
heelslegup said:
This week (july 28-Aug 1 2025(, the S&P 500 reached an all-time closing high of 6388 and all-time intraday high of 6427/

I presume the market (owing to seasonal tendencies) will experience around a 10% correction at some poing during August, September or first half of October. For those who buy based on that sort of dip, the "buy more new shares" point would be around 5760. August and Sept are historically the two worst performing months of the stock market, For Nasdaq 100 I use a 15% drop gauge for that index: those are fairly common, normal and healthy.
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Since Trump took office the S&P is up 3%, the DOW is down a smidge but essentially flat, and the NASDAQ is up 5%

So over the last 7 months the market is up modestly but Trump hyping these "record highs" is pretty weak sauce, and a 10% correction in the next 3 months will give back most the modest gains.
 
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