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Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

  • Thread starter Thread starter heelslegup
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stankeylegjones said:
I’ve always thought long-term investments should not be moved around (much); that one of the worst things to do is to dump the stocks in times of downturn. I invest in five index funds, and was planning to do so for the remainder. Are y’all saying this is a bad idea now? (Sorry, I don’t know much about the market, so please forgive my ignorance.)
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Moving long term around is typically a bad idea. It may very well be a bad idea right now, but the prior principle also always assumed a good faith American government, and American international hegemony (at least post ww2). This is not a good faith American government and they are actively retreating from hegemony via economic arson, so IMO things have severely changed.

Mind you, I’m in a financial position where maintaining returns above inflation is perfectly fine by me, so take my conservative bias with a grain of salt. I was fortunate to have a good amount of discretionary income during the 08-09 market collapse, and was an aggressive buyer of tech and a couple of energy stocks that did very well. I was buying and buying when others were retreating, so, I’ve been on the other end, and the ‘08-me would rib today-me for being a chicken little.

I’d be surprised to see the market cut in half, like ‘09, but I think the real buying opportunities remain in the distance, bc the chaos won’t stop, and I think Don and Elon are eager to use violence.
 
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Healing said:
Moving long term around is typically a bad idea. It may very well be a bad idea right now, but the prior principle also always assumed a good faith American government, and American international hegemony (at least post ww2). This is not a good faith American government and they are actively retreating from hegemony via economic arson, so IMO things have severely changed.

Mind you, I’m in a financial position where maintaining returns above inflation is perfectly fine by me, so take my conservative bias with a grain of salt. I was fortunate to have a good amount of discretionary income during the 08-09 market collapse, and was an aggressive buyer of tech and a couple of energy stocks that did very well. I was buying and buying when others were retreating, so, I’ve been on the other end, and the ‘08 me would rib today me for being a chicken little.

I’d be surprised to see the market cut in half, like ‘09, but I think the real buying opportunities remain in the distance, bc the chaos won’t stop, and I think Don and Elon are eager to use violence.
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Thank you for the explanation!
 
stankeylegjones said:
I’ve always thought long-term investments should not be moved around (much); that one of the worst things to do is to dump the stocks in times of downturn. I invest in five index funds, and was planning to do so for the remainder. Are y’all saying this is a bad idea now? (Sorry, I don’t know much about the market, so please forgive my ignorance.)
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There are big arguments about this on Reddit.

I think in general it is a bad idea to move money around often. I think it is a terrible idea to sell based on nothing but the falling values.

But I think if you truly believe the economic situation will significantly deteriorate, then I think it is fine to move money around. The way I look at it is that doing so should be a truly rare thing and done full well knowing you could lose some gains.

I moved money 3 times all three before any market downturns.

One was in 2007.

In late 2016 I moved to safety. I just wasn’t sure what was going to happen with Trump and by the time I moved back in I lost maybe 7% gains. I was ok with that decision and outcome.

Now.

The key is that I don’t make a habit of doing it and I only do it if I think the upside far outweighs the downside.

And, no, I am not remotely rich. In 2007 I didn’t move enough to safety nor did I buy near bottom. But it did work out for the better.
 
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If you are buying a security for long term investment gains - supposedly you believe in the company and its sector as a vehicle for growth over a long term horizon. If you don't think the company or sector has a long term positive outlook - then you should re-evaluate and possibly sell and invest in a sector with a stronger outlook. Long term investment should supersede even a second Trump term. Yes it is true that Trump is taking a flame thrower to the global economic paradigm, but it's almost impossible to foresee how that might play out in 15 years.

Europe, China, Japan - these economies are not currently equipped to supplant the United States.
The US Dollar is still the world's reserve currency with no other genuine competitors.

Will this change as Trump attempts to destroy the post WWII order - probably - but how? and how would that effect the global economy and investment strategies more specifically is a bit unknown.
 
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stankeylegjones said:
I’ve always thought long-term investments should not be moved around (much); that one of the worst things to do is to dump the stocks in times of downturn. I invest in five index funds, and was planning to do so for the remainder. Are y’all saying this is a bad idea now? (Sorry, I don’t know much about the market, so please forgive my ignorance.)
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My strategy basically. My only difference is I was basically 100% in equity index funds but have changed my allocation to 75-25 equity vs fixed income. This way I have locked in some of my gains, have funds I can convert to cash to try to time the dip and simply sleep better if the market really crashes.

My index funds are VTSAX, SWPPX, VFIAX, QQQ and VTIAX
Income funds are FBND, SWAGX, FBNDX and cash in a money market


I also have a smaller amount of individual stocks and others for what ifs. I find myself getting excited when the market crashes as I want to see Trump's support erode but also see it as a long term opportunity to make money by converting income to equity. My only concern is I am five years away from cashing in so hope we don't see a 2007 crash and slow recovery.
 
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Faucette said:
My strategy basically. My only difference is I was basically 100% in equity index funds but have changed my allocation to 75-25 equity vs fixed income. This way I have locked in some of my gains, have funds I can convert to cash to try to time the dip and simply sleep better if the market really crashes.

My index funds are VTSAX, SWPPX, VFIAX, QQQ and VTIAX
Income funds are FBND, SWAGX, FBNDX and cash in a money market


I also have a smaller amount of individual stocks and others for what ifs. I find myself getting excited when the market crashes as I want to see Trump's support erode but also see it as a long term opportunity to make money by converting income to equity. My only concern is I am five years away from cashing in so hope we don't see a 2007 crash and slow recovery.
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For me it's VFIAX, VSMAX, VGSLX, VTIAX, and VEMAX. I'm about 25 years from retirement...hopefully :)
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
There are big arguments about this on Reddit.

I think in general it is a bad idea to move money around often. I think it is a terrible idea to sell based on nothing but the falling values.

But I think if you truly believe the economic situation will significantly deteriorate, then I think it is fine to move money around. The way I look at it is that doing so should be a truly rare thing and done full well knowing you could lose some gains.

I moved money 3 times all three before any market downturns.

One was in 2007.

In late 2016 I moved to safety. I just wasn’t sure what was going to happen with Trump and by the time I moved back in I lost maybe 7% gains. I was ok with that decision and outcome.

Now.

The key is that I don’t make a habit of doing it and I only do it if I think the upside far outweighs the downside.

And, no, I am not remotely rich. In 2007 I didn’t move enough to safety nor did I buy near bottom. But it did work out for the better.
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It's also being discussed by the bogleheads on their forum.

Rob Berger had a q&a on YouTube yesterday discussing this also, if anyone is interested.
 
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stankeylegjones said:
I’ve always thought long-term investments should not be moved around (much); that one of the worst things to do is to dump the stocks in times of downturn. I invest in five index funds, and was planning to do so for the remainder. Are y’all saying this is a bad idea now? (Sorry, I don’t know much about the market, so please forgive my ignorance.)
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Such a hard dilemma. You hear rule #1: Preserve Capital! Then all the other rules are things about how timing the market is impossible.
 
heelslegup said:
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What does the rest of that thread say?

Here's the truth, as I understand it: tariffs don't make THAT much difference. They aren't good, but they don't cause depressions either. I think Krugman once estimated the effect of tariff regime at 10 bps of GDP growth. These tariffs are worse than anticipated, so maybe bump that up to 30 bps. It's bad, and over the long-term that 30 bps can add up, but it's not as if the economy will go permanently into the crapper.

The problem now is more like the supply chain problems from 2021 and 22. It will cause a recession this year because adjustments to tariffs can't happen overnight. Like they are saying, there will be a painful restructuring, but it won't collapse just because of tariffs. The difference is that I can recognize that the economy, when it bounces back, is going to hit a slower long-term growth curve. If we were looking at about 2% GDP growth per year, now it would be 1.7% or something like that.

The bigger problem is the way Trump is alienating everyone.
 
I sold about half of my Coca Cola stock earlier this year because I thought RFK was gonna make us healthy again. Now it’s the only one keeping my portfolio afloat lol
 
“'Now I will tell you the answer to my question. It is this. The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others ; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from all the oligarchies of the past, in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were- cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just round the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?”
 
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