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Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

  • Thread starter Thread starter heelslegup
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heelinhell said:
don't be dissin' me man

I have been a contrarian, bottom feeding value investor for decades

That said, I haven't cast my fishing pole into the pond just yet. I'm still waiting to get the signal from HeelYeahšŸ˜œ
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Nothing wrong with bottom fishing, if you know the bottom. Otherwise, average into the storm. Actually, I think a lot of day traders, they love volatility.
 
Don't be fooled or suckered into recent rally. It's amazing that an idiotic rant by Trump hinting at firing Powell, which he can not do, quickly followed up with a retraction and blaming the media for exaggeration -- somehow makes everything else go away and the market is poised for takeoff.

Couple that with madman Bessent declaring a settlement with China will be in place soon. Sure, this is believable. Later, Trump spoke to reporters in his office. He was asked if he had talked with Xi yet, or had any communications actually started in negotiations between the two sides. He refused to answer and simply stated it was going to be resolved very soon.

So much manipulation. Nothing has changed.
 
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heelinhell said:
heading into the final hour today...

Dow down 1200
S&P down 167
NASDAQ down 550

I'm a bottom fisher so this market is looking super delicious today, but I have a feeling there is more carnage to come.

I just wish HeelYeah would come here and give me some advice whether to take the plunge or keep my powder dry:unsure:
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You picked a hell of a day to bottom fish.
 
I watched The Big Short for the second time this week. It is such a good movie with so many emotional ups and downs even though everyone knows the ending.

But that got me to thinking that this administration is not going to regulate anything unless it is something that they can use to punish a rival. Theyā€™re not even going to be able to enforce income tax laws - at least for the complicated cases.

This isnā€™t related to what is going on now with tariffs but this complete lack of government regulation is going to cause some type of financial disaster in the future.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
government regulation is going to cause some type of financial disaster in the future.
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In my view, the disaster is less likely to come from an unregulated private sector than the government itself as currently run.

We have a debt ceiling date approaching. Treasury says we can hold until August (IIRC) with the "extraordinary measures" but that was pre-DOGE. If the estimate of lower tax payments comes true, the "run out of money date" would likely move up a month and catch Congress off guard. Trump is so attached to his big beautiful idea that I'm not sure Congress could pass a quick fix if needed. Also a sudden recession could spike tax receipts down (keeping an eye on the June 30 deadline for quarterlies), thus adding to the problem.
 
superrific said:
In my view, the disaster is less likely to come from an unregulated private sector than the government itself as currently run.

We have a debt ceiling date approaching. Treasury says we can hold until August (IIRC) with the "extraordinary measures" but that was pre-DOGE. If the estimate of lower tax payments comes true, the "run out of money date" would likely move up a month and catch Congress off guard. Trump is so attached to his big beautiful idea that I'm not sure Congress could pass a quick fix if needed. Also a sudden recession could spike tax receipts down (keeping an eye on the June 30 deadline for quarterlies), thus adding to the problem.
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Agree and I could have put in a caveat that the administration could cause a disaster long before any lack of regulation does.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
Don't be fooled or suckered into recent rally. It's amazing that an idiotic rant by Trump hinting at firing Powell, which he can not do, quickly followed up with a retraction and blaming the media for exaggeration -- somehow makes everything else go away and the market is poised for takeoff.

Couple that with madman Bessent declaring a settlement with China will be in place soon. Sure, this is believable. Later, Trump spoke to reporters in his office. He was asked if he had talked with Xi yet, or had any communications actually started in negotiations between the two sides. He refused to answer and simply stated it was going to be resolved very soon.

So much manipulation. Nothing has changed.
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Well, the raw numbers in the economy are not bad and there was no real reason for a 20% selloff other than fear of Trump's stupidity.

So I wouldn't say people think the market is posied for a takeoff. They just think it can climb back up the cliff it just fell off of because of these stupid tariffs. The more he walks it back and postpones, they more people will get back in or buy the dip.

I would not put anything past this idiot, and I definitely think there is some risk he could do something that will crash everything. But the market involves risk. That's why you get the returns. The bottom line is the stock market is one of the primary ways he measures his own success as President, so if he does something to crash it, he's probably going to walk it back or do something to juice it.
 
A bunch of earnings reports coming this week plus the jobs report.

I think the earnings in the reports won't matter so much(assuming they are not bad ) as will be their forecasts for the rest of the year.
I'm not sure the jobs report will have much impact one way or the other unless there is a significant surprise.

But it seems the market today is priced as if there is no reason to worry about a recession, and I think there is plenty of reason to worry so Trump's claim that we are about to become the greatest economy in the history of all mankind once again strikes me as a bit optimistic.
 

Loadingā€¦

www.cnbc.com

President Donald Trumpā€™s first 100 days in office are the worst for the stock market for the start of a presidentā€™s four-year term since the 1970s.

The S&P 500ā€²s 7.9% drop from when Trump was sworn into office on Jan. 20 through the April 25 close, is the second worst first 100-day performance going back to the beginning of President Richard Nixonā€™s second term, according to CFRA Research. Nixon saw the S&P 500 tumble 9.9% in 1973, after a series of economic measures he took to combat inflation resulted in the 1973 to 1975 recession. Nixon would later resign in 1974 because of the Watergate scandal.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Well, the raw numbers in the economy are not bad and there was no real reason for a 20% selloff other than fear of Trump's stupidity.

So I wouldn't say people think the market is posied for a takeoff. They just think it can climb back up the cliff it just fell off of because of these stupid tariffs. The more he walks it back and postpones, they more people will get back in or buy the dip.

I would not put anything past this idiot, and I definitely think there is some risk he could do something that will crash everything. But the market involves risk. That's why you get the returns. The bottom line is the stock market is one of the primary ways he measures his own success as President, so if he does something to crash it, he's probably going to walk it back or do something to juice it.
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The market involves risks, true. But there are periods where the risk is far greater than any potential return. We are in one of those moments now.

At the expense of being labeled a ā€œmarket timerā€ - which I successfully did in 2007 - the upside of staying in cash right now could be tremendous.

I sold in February. Some label that as being risk adverse. In my opinion I am actually taking a risk but one where the risk/reward is in my favor.
 
It certainly "feels" like we are already in a recession. We've had the slowest start to the year in the 11yrs we've been in business. May tends to be when things pick up, so we'll see what happens. I'm trying to not be too pessimistic as I know my feelings toward the current administration are largely driving my feelings around the economy. I assume there are plenty of MAGA still dancing around thinking it is the best economy in history and somehow "feel" that their groceries are now costing less....
 
bassydude77 said:
It certainly "feels" like we are already in a recession. We've had the slowest start to the year in the 11yrs we've been in business. May tends to be when things pick up, so we'll see what happens. I'm trying to not be too pessimistic as I know my feelings toward the current administration are largely driving my feelings around the economy. I assume there are plenty of MAGA still dancing around thinking it is the best economy in history and somehow "feel" that their groceries are now costing less....
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What type of business, bassy?
 
Dow down over 600 points
S&P down over 100 points
NASDAQ down over 400 points

The markets don't seem to realize this is the leftover Biden stock market, not Trump's; But once the beautiful tariffs fully kick in, the market will boom like nobody could ever believe !
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
The bottom line is the stock market is one of the primary ways he measures his own success as President, so if he does something to crash it, he's probably going to walk it back or do something to juice it.
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While his friends and family is making money on both ends.
 
heelinhell said:
Dow down over 600 points
S&P down over 100 points
NASDAQ down over 400 points

The markets don't seem to realize this is the leftover Biden stock market, not Trump's; But once the beautiful tariffs fully kick in, the market will boom like nobody could ever believe !
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And the last 20 minutes saw a 1% rise to go in the green. (NASDAQ barely missed green.)
 
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