Tariffs Catch-All

[superrific]

Really hard to make sense of that graph. The reverse color and choice to show bigger trade deficits as lower on the graph is confusing.

Plus unless I am reading it wrong, it is purporting to show trade deficits but then graphing them as negative numbers which would be a surplus.

That's how these graphs work. They always depict trade deficits as negative and surpluses as positive. And the shading (i.e. reverse color) is used because it helps cross-country comparisons and changes over time. Think about putting that graph on the same one as a country with a surplus. It really does make sense.

The problem is the label on that graph, which probably was not put there by the folks who made it. The graph should read "monthly trade balance" or "monthly current account balance."

 

[ChileG]

Yeah, that's not happening. Trump can't admit when he's wrong or made a mistake. He has to find some way to turn this into a win. Good luck with that.

As we have seen, all he has to do is announce he made a bunch of new deals and his sycophantic acolytes will believe it and call him the bestest president of all-time.
The economy comes back and the stock market takes off and he takes all the credit.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

I imported all of the 0dte and 1dte SPY calls into a database and did some queries. Someone bought 1535 contracts (153500 shares) at a strike price of 510 for $1.70/share (total cost $250,950) at 13:05 on 4/9 and netted $5.04 million if they held it to the end of the day.

 

[hedge]

I believe there was a similar trade in the 520's that day...

 

[mynameisbond]

As we have seen, all he has to do is announce he made a bunch of new deals and his sycophantic acolytes will believe it and call him the bestest president of all-time.
The economy comes back and the stock market takes off and he takes all the credit.

And if not, it's all Biden's fault anyway

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

That's how these graphs work. They always depict trade deficits as negative and surpluses as positive. And the shading (i.e. reverse color) is used because it helps cross-country comparisons and changes over time. Think about putting that graph on the same one as a country with a surplus. It really does make sense.

The problem is the label on that graph, which probably was not put there by the folks who made it. The graph should read "monthly trade balance" or "monthly current account balance."

The label is what I objected to the most.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

I believe there was a similar trade in the 520's that day...

Here's an interesting one. Both were made at the same time. One paid $912 and got $406,752 back.

The thing is, the tweet went out at 13:18. Did this person (or persons) see the tweet and immediately buy these? These were the highest multiples among those who ended with more than $100k.


total_cost | size | price | strike_price | timestamp | value_at_expiration | return_multiple
--------------------+-------+-------+--------------+---------------------+---------------------+---------------------
912 | 228 | 0.04 | 525 | 2025-04-09 13:18:56 | 406752.00 | 446
228 | 57 | 0.04 | 525 | 2025-04-09 13:18:56 | 101688.00 | 446

And this guy turned $3 into $10,152.

total_cost | size | price | strike_price | timestamp | value_at_expiration | return_multiple
--------------------+-------+-------+--------------+---------------------+---------------------+---------------------
3 | 3 | 0.01 | 509 | 2025-04-09 13:18:46 | 10152.00 | 3384

Also, this second one kind of answers the question about the first. Note that the 509 strike price was $.01 then 10 seconds later the 525 was $.04 so the prices had already begun to skyrocket.

 

[hedge]

Crazy times..

 

[nycfan]

Beijing Weighs Fentanyl Offer to U.S. to Start Trade Talks​

Addressing Trump team’s concerns over China’s role in fentanyl crisis could let both sides soften trade stance​

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/beijing-weighs-fentanyl-offer-to-u-s-to-start-trade-talks-287cf233?st=oN8y2R&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

 

[superrific]

Beijing Weighs Fentanyl Offer to U.S. to Start Trade Talks​

Addressing Trump team’s concerns over China’s role in fentanyl crisis could let both sides soften trade stance​

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/beijing-weighs-fentanyl-offer-to-u-s-to-start-trade-talks-287cf233?st=oN8y2R&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

"allow trade talks to start" is the key there. But they won't get anywhere until Trump figures out what he wants, which of course he won't. So there will be wheel spinning.

Gabbard's decision to **prove** that Covid came from a Chinese lab is surely not at all helping and in fact the extent of the cooperation might be fentanyl/covid.