Tariffs Catch-All

[CFordUNC]

They may be simpletons, but their love is conditional. If the economy hits the shitter, Trump will lose them -- at least a significant number of them.

I hope you’re right, but I wish I shared your optimism. Obviously anecdote is not the plural of data, but I’ve got a whole bunch of extended family members who are diehard Trump supporters who will be the first ones adversely affected by the slashing of the welfare state, and I have a hard time seeing any single one of them actually placing any blame at Trump’s feet whatsoever. They’ll just believe that it was all Joe Biden‘s fault.

 

[Healing]

They may be simpletons, but their love is conditional. If the economy hits the shitter, Trump will lose them -- at least a significant number of them.

What is a significant number? In the history of cults, what cult ended because the cultists encountered moderate hardship? This is Peron/Evita level shit.

 

[CFordUNC]

What is a significant number? In the history of cults, what cult ended because the cultists encountered moderate hardship? This is Peron/Evita level shit.

Agreed. Even my generally happy go lucky, “optimistic to the point of Pollyanna” dumbass self has finally accepted that there is never going to be anything that breaks Trump‘s grip on his cult members.

 

[Calheel]

What is a significant number? In the history of cults, what cult ended because the cultists encountered moderate hardship? This is Peron/Evita level shit.

Well, Trump's popularity appears to be matching the trends in his first term. He started at roughly even and dipped down to under 30% around the time of the Trump tax cuts, and then moved upward from there, hovering between 35% and 40%. And that was with a good economy.

If Trump's tariffs and fiscal cuts cause the economy to crater, Trump will likely be in the low 20% range. So, that would be him losing all of the soft support and roughly 1 in 3 of the hard core supporters.

At that point, supporting Trump will no longer be considered "cool" by that group, but more of a sign of being part of the out-group. He will keep the hard, hardcore types. The same reason that some people like to drive a Cybertruck even though most people think it is the ugliest thing ever created. But his power will be all but gone at that point.

Of course, if he doesn't F up the economy, he will likely mirror his 35%-40% approval patterns from Trump 1.0.

 

[UNCatTech]

Wait, are they bragging that our worst trading partners are seeking deals? Why is that a good thing? Does it fucking matter if Kyrgyzstan wants a trade deal?

Trump will probably say: Kyrgyzstan, whom no one has ever heard of before, wants a major trade deal. See tariffs are working, America will be rich again, soon.

 

[wmheel1287]

Agreed. Even my generally happy go lucky, “optimistic to the point of Pollyanna” dumbass self has finally accepted that there is never going to be anything that breaks Trump‘s grip on his cult members.

This is correct. Most will go the way of Jim Jones in Guyana before they find fault with Trump because literal death is worse than admitting that their entire ethos is based on the myth of a con man.

 

[CFordUNC]

This is correct. Most will go the way of Jim Jones in Guyana before they find fault with Trump because literal death is worse than admitting that their entire ethos is based on the myth of a con man.

Totally. I’ve completely given up hope that any of those folks are salvageable in terms of seeing the light when it comes to Trump.

 

[wmheel1287]

Totally. I’ve completely given up hope that any of those folks are salvageable in terms of seeing the light when it comes to Trump.

I'll put this this way, you're more likely to hear the highest ranking member of the Wolfpack Club say "Valvano was an overrated cheat who is only remembered because he got cancer and became sympathetic before he died" than you are to EVER hear fault found with Donald Trump by his supporters.

 

[superrific]

The future is not written.

 

[Zoo_View]

This is probably the end of the traditional US Auto industry. It's hard to see how it survives these tariffs. The back and forth nature of automobile manufacturing with Canada is evolutionary and necessary for the modernization of the industry. Reversing course is just untenable - but the costs incurred by these tariffs will price these cars out of the market. I assume Trump, et al will tariff other vehicles from foreign manufacturers who bring parts in from overseas and assemble in the USA - like VW, BMW, etc. Eventually, the price of a car will be so expensive that the average person will not be able to afford an automobile. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers will thrive in this environment as tariffs and retaliatory tariffs make all US cars uncompetitive. And Chinese automakers take over the world....especially in Europe and throughout Asia.

I rode in my first BYD over the weekend. It's not a very comfortable car - but it's cheap and it works....feels like a Tesla but considerably more affordable.

The tariff situation is so baffling because it is so clearly wrong headed and economically unsound. You can apply my comments above to basically every industry Trump gets his little fingers on.

Each and every industry AND each and every policy.

How does it work if we travel to purchase?

There used to be, and maybe still are, programs where one could travel to Germany, buy a BMW, drive it and return to the US with it as a used car. From what I read one saved money doing this.

Maybe we need to set up a new business for tourism car purchases.

I knew a few rich kids who did that in the mid-‘80’s. I biked around Europe - which, kinda made me a rich kid compared to most.

I don’t think it was a huge savings. Certain things had to be done to the car to make it USA-compliant. Switching out the windshield was one.

According to one good friend, it was a wash.

 

[UNCatTech]

Each and every industry AND each and every policy.

I knew a few rich kids who did that in the mid-‘80’s. I biked around Europe - which, kinda made me a rich kid compared to most.

I don’t think it was a huge savings. Certain things had to be done to the car to make it USA-compliant. Switching out the windshield was one.

According to one good friend, it was a wash.

I knew one guy that said he did it. Not a huge savings, I believe he said he saved a little even including the cost for the week in Germany.

 

[Zoo_View]

I knew one guy that said he did it. Not a huge savings, I believe he said he saved a little even including the cost for the week in Germany.

My girlfriend in ‘85 picked up a BMW. Part of the reason was it was a model derivative that almost never made it to the States.

Her Dad bought it for her as a college graduation present.

She and a girlfriend drove it ALL OVER Western Europe.

She spent more in gas in two months than any possible “savings.”

We did have a few nice hook-ups in France, Germany, and Austria.

My remembrance is that the ludicrous exchange rate in 1985 made “picking up your German car in Germany” briefly popular for rich people.

I know I bought $1,000 worth of pounds for $1.03 that year. I bought $1,000 worth of French francs for close to 10 francs to the dollar. The Swiss franc was less expensive than normal but not stupidly cheap…..but, it was “cheap.” The Deutschmark got close to being stupidly cheap that year…..I think I bought $1,000 at 3.3 DM……

I felt so rich in France that summer……especially bumfuck, off-the-beaten-path rural France. I never wanted to leave. My buddy, who spoke ZERO French and wasn’t flush…..he wanted to leave.

I’d been saving for this trip for years and had saved a ton. My parents had gone to Cambridge in Summer ‘84 and my Dad was always monitoring exchange rates…..so, I started following it closely. I think my Dad started buying pounds at $1.32 and thinking that was great and then the price kept dropping.

 

[superrific]

Just looked it up -- you could have gotten 3.3 DM for a dollar in Feb 85. Was that when you were there? by summer it had fallen to 2.9-3.

You're right that the pound was at 1.32 in summer of 84. You couldn't have bought for 1.03, because it bottomed out at 1.07, but that's pretty damn good for a 40 year old memory. But again, that low was in Feb 85 (obviously when the dollar was at its strongest).

In Feb 85, francs were 10 to a buck, but by summer it had fallen to 8.5.

 

[altmin]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-parliament-calls-end-reliance-us-software-2025-03-18/

The Netherlands' parliament on Tuesday approved a series of motions calling on the government to reduce dependence on U.S. software companies, including by creating a cloud services platform under Dutch control.

While such initiatives have foundered in the past due to a lack of viable European alternatives, lawmakers said changing relations with the United States under the presidency of Donald Trump have given the issue fresh urgency.

 

[altmin]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cross-border-trips-decline-235k-february-1.7485695

Cross-border trips to the U.S. reach COVID lows with nearly 500,000 fewer travellers in February​

Barbara Barrett is the executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, a group that represents 32 independently owned duty-free shops that dot the Canadian side of the land border from coast to coast.

She said the travel decline is "catastrophic" and the mostly family-run stores she represents are seeing sales drop off dramatically.


She said sales never really recovered after the pandemic and now, with the recent disruptions, are down about 80 per cent compared to pre-2020 figures.

"Without hyperbole, it's a dire situation. It's very worrying," Barrett said in an interview with CBC News. "It's pandemic-level stuff for sure. It's dramatic — the borders are just not seeing the traffic."

 

[altmin]

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/countries-weigh-how-to-stand-up-to-trumps-tariff-barrage-00231666

As world leaders grasp for a response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, they have two models to study — and both have plenty of pitfalls.

Two of the first targets of Trump’s trade ire, Mexico and Canada, have been going back and forth with the White House for over a month now to try and fend off steep new tariffs. But they’ve pursued very different strategies: Ottawa has taken a more confrontational approach, including immediate trade retaliation, drawing swift White House retribution; Mexico City has tried to lay low and buy time, but doesn’t have much more to show for it.

With a new round of tariffs on steel and aluminum that went into effect this week and worldwide “reciprocal” tariffs on the horizon next month, other countries have been taking notes. The lessons they draw will help determine just how much the global economy cracks up as Trump’s trade war deepens.


“There’s the ongoing debate that’s been consistent: Is it better to grovel and kiss the ring or is it better to stand up to the bully?” said William Reinsch, a former Commerce undersecretary now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Both have worked on occasion and both have not worked on occasion. So it’s hard to know in any given circumstance which one is the better tactic.”

A senior European Union official, granted anonymity per the ground rules of the briefing, told reporters on Wednesday that the bloc was “constantly speaking” with other world leaders about the U.S. tariffs and “comparing notes.” But, the official added, the EU is not yet coordinating its reaction with other countries.

 

[nycfan]

 

[altmin]

Buy Canadian movement starts to take a sizable bite out of U.S. business

U.S. tour operators and American distilleries hit hard by surge in patriotism among Canadian shoppers

www.theglobeandmail.com

The surge in patriotism among Canadian shoppers, fuelled by trade tensions with the United States, is already leaving a sizable mark on American business, early data from a variety of industries suggests.

U.S. tour operators are reporting booking declines of as much as 85 per cent, while American distilleries are losing major deals. Meanwhile, Canadian grocers are posting a bump in domestic product sales of up to 10 per cent.

Donald Trump’s jabs about annexation, along with a 25-per-cent levy on steel and aluminum from Canada and the U.S. President’s threats of a 25-per-cent tariff on most Canadian imports have prompted a rallying cry to “Buy Canadian” across this country.

While consumer boycotts – combined with government policy actions – are causing trouble south of the border, concerns are bubbling up about the toll on Canadian businesses, too.

“To use some of the words I hear from tour company members of the National Tour Association, the drop-off is ‘astronomical’ when speaking about Canadians booking group travel to the United States,” said Catherine Prather, president of the Kentucky-based organization, which specializes in group tours.

One National Tour Association member operator reported just two bookings for U.S. tours in the past two weeks compared to 39 bookings during the same period in 2024, she said. Another Canadian operator, with 85 per cent of their business focused on tours to the U.S., had to scrap every U.S. departure for March, April and May due to client cancellations.

 

[nycfan]

 

[Healing]