Tariffs Catch-All

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ChileG said:
Do Trump voters even know this happened in his last administration because of the tariffs? Will they be aware it is happening this time?
I’ll bet dollars to donuts the cost of bailing out the farmers will be more than any cuts DOGE makes.
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Also, I thought Trumpers and Republicans generally hated socialism and "government handouts." Yet if the government gives billions of dollars to farmers to keep them afloat because of Trump's disastrous trade policies then what is that but government handouts and big-government socialism propping up an industry that is failing? And as you pointed out, this already happened during Trump's first term when his disastrous trade policies hammered American farmers. I remember reading an article that said that a majority of farmer's "profits" at the end of his first term were actually coming from government handouts, not real profits made from selling their food and other products. I've said this before, but Trumpers and conservatives don't really mind socialism or handouts, and will gladly accept them, they just want them directed at the "right" people and not minorities or other "unworthy" poors.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Also, I thought Trumpers and Republicans generally hated socialism and "government handouts." Yet if the government gives billions of dollars to farmers to keep them afloat because of Trump's disastrous trade policies then what is that but government handouts and big-government socialism propping up an industry that is failing? And as you pointed out, this already happened during Trump's first term when his disastrous trade policies hammered American farmers. I remember reading an article that said that a majority of farmer's "profits" at the end of his first term were actually coming from government handouts, not real profits made from selling their food and other products. I've said this before, but Trumpers and conservatives don't really mind socialism or handouts, and will gladly accept them, they just want them directed at the "right" people and not minorities or other "unworthy" poors.
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It’s weird…our resident “HYPOCRITE” monitor hasn’t opined on this phenomenon.
 
The constant threats and removals of tariffs are really making Trump look weak. If a bully refuses time and time again to make good on his threats they become irrelevant.

Small governments may be forced to play along with Trump's game because he can afford to hit them back. But the EU should absolutely call his bluff and dare him to make good on the tariffs. You can't continue to appease a bully and when one is clearly not willing to make good on his threats then it is time to go on the offensive.

Trump has given them an opening to make him look incredibly weak. Force him into a lose/lose proposition. Back down after they directly challenged him or initiate tariffs and destroy his own economy.

International leaders have tried to appease Trump for far too long and it has cost them because giving even a perceived victory to Trump encourages more and more bad behavior.
 
Next tariff annooncement, an extra 10% on countries that sent their criminals here to eat our family pets. Then a few weeks later when the market is down more, he will rescind tariffs against cat eaters, they are fine. But we must protect our dogs. Stock market up 1.75% that day.
 
What's the basis for this "tariff optimism"? Isn't he still planning on putting levies on trillions of dollars of imports, even if there might be some scaling back? And even if he scales them back, can we say the same about other countries' retaliatory tariffs?

He can't be serious about the secondary tariff on Venezuela, and I assume the market is taking that as pure bluster. Oil is oil -- which is why it is hard to shut down oil shipments even as part of sanctions. Every country on earth would be hit with those tariffs -- well, maybe not every country, but a lot of them.
 
I wish someone could track the trades of Infinity Partners and plot them against the ever-changing market moving Trump pronouncements about tariffs or other absurdities. I’m guessing he is moving the market with a purpose. If there is anything Trump is astute about, it is shady ass common corruption.
 
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superrific said:
What's the basis for this "tariff optimism"? Isn't he still planning on putting levies on trillions of dollars of imports, even if there might be some scaling back? And even if he scales them back, can we say the same about other countries' retaliatory tariffs?

He can't be serious about the secondary tariff on Venezuela, and I assume the market is taking that as pure bluster. Oil is oil -- which is why it is hard to shut down oil shipments even as part of sanctions. Every country on earth would be hit with those tariffs -- well, maybe not every country, but a lot of them.
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The fact that they are excluding cars and microchips generally (for now and except as “reciprocal tariffs”?) seems to be re-energizing the “he isn’t serious” or “he will be restrained by his staff” expectations more broadly, which seems optimistic …
 
superrific said:
What's the basis for this "tariff optimism"? Isn't he still planning on putting levies on trillions of dollars of imports, even if there might be some scaling back? And even if he scales them back, can we say the same about other countries' retaliatory tariffs?

He can't be serious about the secondary tariff on Venezuela, and I assume the market is taking that as pure bluster. Oil is oil -- which is why it is hard to shut down oil shipments even as part of sanctions. Every country on earth would be hit with those tariffs -- well, maybe not every country, but a lot of them.
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I think you answered the the question when you mentioned pure bluster. I think a lot of the optimism is based on the thought than almost all of it is pure bluster.

My thought is that it doesn't really matter because a lot of damage has already been done with the antagonism of trading partners with both tariffs and other threats. We've seen that this is having a significant impact on tourism. We've seen consumers from outside the US are boycotting US goods. None of that is changing any time soon. Trump might remove tariffs but he will continue to antagonize them because that is who he is.

One caveat to what I have said. I have moved my 401k out of US indexes and have a few thousand in open bets against US indexes. That could easily be biasing my thoughts. We are also in a bit of a information bubble, for me both here and on reddit. How big of a factor are these boycotts? I don't know.

What I do know is that the GDPnow is still showing negative growth for Q1 and supposedly it gets more accurate as you approach the end of the quarter. People dismiss it because of the correction they had to make but my guess is that that isn't logical.
 
I think nyc is very close. I said on here weeks ago that "the market" is generally in denial about the tariffs. Every time Trump gives a 30 day pause, or adds "exclusions" it reinforces this belief that Trump is just bluffing and not really that stupid.

The funny thing is, with all of Trump's bluster and his Admin going in lockstep, the cult defends it as "finally someone is standing up for Murica and giving us an equal playing field." If he were actually to back off, those same cultists would praise him and support that.

In other words, they will go along with ANYTHING Trump does.
 
It's kind of hard for Trump to declare April 2 to be "LIBERATION DAY" and then back down from the tariffs.

Reciprocal tariffs on cars would still hit European imports
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
I have moved my 401k out of US indexes and have a few thousand in open bets against US indexes. That could easily be biasing my thoughts.
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Don't do that. Diversify, yes. Betting against the US indices? The history of bankruptcy is written with the tears of men who bet against stock market indices.

And keep some money in the US as a hedge against global meltdown. I know that sounds weird, but consider the experience of the 2008 financial crisis. It started in the US, and its epicenter was the US. And yet it was foreign markets whose stocks got hit the worst. How?

In a panic, there's a flight to "quality" which has historically been dollar denominated assets, and in particular Treasuries. Now, we should ask -- are US assets still "quality"? The answer is "what do the markets think?" which is in essence a collective action problem.

I've modeled a US debt default, and even in that case there are two multiple, stable equilibria: either investors panic and flee US assets, which will cause a fire sale of unimaginable proportions; or they buy dollars despite the default because they think other investors will do the same. These days "quality" means something different than it did, say, 20 years ago. It's about charts now, and the US dollar has the best chart. But it's only about charts until it's not.

Don't try to time the market.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
What I do know is that the GDPnow is still showing negative growth for Q1 and supposedly it gets more accurate as you approach the end of the quarter. People dismiss it because of the correction they had to make but my guess is that that isn't logical.
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When adjusted for the gold weirdness, it's currently predicting about 0.2% I think. The gold weirdness is simple arithmetic. I thought it was not logical at first, but it's just math.
 
superrific said:
Don't do that. Diversify, yes. Betting against the US indices? The history of bankruptcy is written with the tears of men who bet against stock market indices.

And keep some money in the US as a hedge against global meltdown. I know that sounds weird, but consider the experience of the 2008 financial crisis. It started in the US, and its epicenter was the US. And yet it was foreign markets whose stocks got hit the worst. How?

In a panic, there's a flight to "quality" which has historically been dollar denominated assets, and in particular Treasuries. Now, we should ask -- are US assets still "quality"? The answer is "what do the markets think?" which is in essence a collective action problem.

I've modeled a US debt default, and even in that case there are two multiple, stable equilibria: either investors panic and flee US assets, which will cause a fire sale of unimaginable proportions; or they buy dollars despite the default because they think other investors will do the same. These days "quality" means something different than it did, say, 20 years ago. It's about charts now, and the US dollar has the best chart. But it's only about charts until it's not.

Don't try to time the market.
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I did it in 2007 or 2008. (I don't remember when I actually sold but it was before crap hit the fan.) That worked out pretty well. Didn't time the bottom but definitely bought at lower prices than I sold.

I do agree that the international funds could be risky.

In that case, I did it because I was reading realestatebubbleblog.com. (That site still exists but is very different than it was back then.) I had a sense that things were not sustainable and learned of all of the ARMs from suprime mortgages that were set to have their interest rates reset. There were a few people who worked on Wall Street and were talking about how the models they're using assumes that there could never be a drop in nationwide housing prices and how their derivatives would start failing if that happened. I had no idea about the systemic risk but the more I read about that the more I was convinced that it exists. My idea was that I can exit the market and possibly lose out on 10-20% gains which was a risk I was willing to take.

I don't plan on staying out forever. It is just the risk is too high for my liking.
 
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ChapelHillSooner said:
I did it in 2007 or 2008. (I don't remember when I actually sold but it was before crap hit the fan.) That worked out pretty well. Didn't time the bottom but definitely bought at lower prices than I sold.

In that case, I did it because I was reading realestatebubbleblog.com. (That site still exists but is very different than it was back then.) I had a sense that things were not sustainable and learned of all of the ARMs from suprime mortgages that were set to have their interest rates reset. There were a few people who worked on Wall Street and were talking about how the models they're using assumes that there could never be a drop in nationwide housing prices and how their derivatives would start failing if that happened. I had no idea about the systemic risk but the more I read about that the more I was convinced that it exists. My idea was that I can exit the market and possibly lose out on 10-20% gains which was a risk I was willing to take.

I don't plan on staying out forever. It is just the risk is too high for my liking.
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There's a middle ground between staying out completely and diversifying, but do what you're comfortable with.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
Next tariff annooncement, an extra 10% on countries that sent their criminals here to eat our family pets. Then a few weeks later when the market is down more, he will rescind tariffs against cat eaters, they are fine. But we must protect our dogs. Stock market up 1.75% that day.
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And what about the gerbil tariff?
 

Trump Might Exempt Some Nations From Reciprocal Tariffs​

Levies on foreign goods including lumber and pharmaceuticals could come after April 2, president says​



“… “I may give a lot of countries breaks,” Trump told reporters Monday in the Oval Office. He said the reciprocal tariffs could stop short of his pledge to equalize U.S. duties with rates other nations charge.

“I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged us,” Trump said.

Trump’s remarks were the latest recalibration of a slate of tariffs Trump has said he would lay out on April 2, a date he has called “liberation day.”

He said Monday that other tariffs on goods such as automobiles, lumber pharmaceuticals and semiconductors might not be implemented until later.

Markets rallied on expectations Trump might dial back planned tariffs. …”
 
nycfan said:

Trump Might Exempt Some Nations From Reciprocal Tariffs​

Levies on foreign goods including lumber and pharmaceuticals could come after April 2, president says​



“… “I may give a lot of countries breaks,” Trump told reporters Monday in the Oval Office. He said the reciprocal tariffs could stop short of his pledge to equalize U.S. duties with rates other nations charge.

“I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged us,” Trump said.

Trump’s remarks were the latest recalibration of a slate of tariffs Trump has said he would lay out on April 2, a date he has called “liberation day.”

He said Monday that other tariffs on goods such as automobiles, lumber pharmaceuticals and semiconductors might not be implemented until later.

Markets rallied on expectations Trump might dial back planned tariffs. …”
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“… Trump’s comments came hours after he said the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela. Trump said that the 25% tariff would augment existing duties, including the 20% tariff he levied on China this year. That would mean 45% tariffs on the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner.

On Monday, the Treasury Department extended Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela through late May. Last month, the administration signaled it would give Chevron 30 days to wind down operations in the Latin American country, which would have ended its operations there in early April.

… The Biden administration granted Chevron a license to resume operations in Venezuela in 2022, after the first Trump administration had barred the company from operating there to put pressure on Venezuela’s leader, strongman Nicolás Maduro.

Treasury said Chevron’s general license didn’t allow it to pay taxes or royalties to Venezuela or export oil to anywhere other than the U.S.

Trump described the move as a “secondary tariff” on Venezuela over the flow of migrants to the U.S., including members of the Tren de Aragua gang …”

 
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