Tariffs Catch-All

[farce©]

So add your phone number to your zip code, multiply by your area code then divide by your social security number to find your personal Trump Liberation Day tariff.

 

[1moretimeagain]

 

[superrific]

Honestly my thought is FINALLY.

Finally shit can hit the fan so the idiots will see what's about to happen to their pocketbooks. 15% inflation perhaps?

Not even close to that. Maybe headline inflation for April and June will be very high. The annual estimates I've seen are from +150 bps to +550 bps. By plus, I mean in addition to the baseline rate of about 2.5%.

 

[superrific]

Sorry if this has been covered
The senate voted today to say we are not in a financial crisis-thus orangeturd does not have authority to put up tariffs. If it goes to the House it WILL pass also. So speaker Johnson made up a new rule. All house proceedings this year wil be considered one day-from here on
Because if a motion is brought up -say the Senate Tariff bill-the Speaker does not have to allow a vote on it-but after X days it gets voted on
So for the rest of the session there will not be X days-just a continuation of today. So there will be no vote.
For the first time I now hope the Stock Market crashes over the tariffs-and we can all point a finger at Johnson. Hopefully before it is too prolonged

It doesn't matter, because Trump can and would veto the resolution.

 

[p5mmr9]

Presumably if such a resolution passed the Senate - it would do so with significant GOP support and would pass the veto threshold.

 

[Silence Dogood]

Are there any positives to increasing tariffs? Any similarities between increasing taxes on corporations and increasing tariffs?

 

[p5mmr9]

Are there any positives to increasing tariffs? Any similarities between increasing taxes on corporations and increasing tariffs?

At best a tariff is a selective consumption tax. So, I suppose the benefit is more revenue to the federal government. Proponents also suggest tariffs incentivize domestic production, however it is really hard to see how tariffs against a poor country like say Bangladesh will incentivize an industry like garment production in the USA considering the vast wage disparity between the USA and Bangladesh.

 

[superrific]

Are there any positives to increasing tariffs? Any similarities between increasing taxes on corporations and increasing tariffs?

Not from these tariffs and no.

 

[Silence Dogood]

At best a tariff is a selective consumption tax. So, I suppose the benefit is more revenue to the federal government. Proponents also suggest tariffs incentivize domestic production, however it is really hard to see how tariffs against a poor country like say Bangladesh will incentivize an industry like garment production in the USA considering the vast wage disparity between the USA and Bangladesh.

Yes, more revenue, increases in domestic production, more jobs, lower taxes for individuals etc

 

[Duke Mu]

It doesn't matter, because Trump can and would veto the resolution.

I parked my retirement in money market (90%). Will ride it out.

 

[Silence Dogood]

Not from these tariffs and no.

What other tariffs? If increasing tariffs increases prices, why shouldn't we worry about price increases when corporate tax rates go up?

 

[p5mmr9]

Yes, more revenue, increases in domestic production, more jobs, lower taxes for individuals etc

It's unlikely we see a proportional increase in domestic production and even less likely we see an significant increase in employment opportunities.

 

[superrific]

Yes, more revenue, increases in domestic production, more jobs, lower taxes for individuals etc

Since when do you conservatives like the revenues from taxes? Here's an idea: don't raise taxes on consumers -- raise them on billionaires.

Tariffs are higher tariffs on individuals, not lower. They generally do not increase domestic production, and in this case they will not because we don't even have domestic production of lots of these goods.

Basically, here's what will happen with tariffs. The American trade deficits with other countries will decline. But that will not be because we sell any more; it will just be that we consume less. It will make us poorer, which is what the negative GDP growth coming down the pipe is going to show. The economy will shrink until the trade deficits level out.

But then there's the next problem, which is the budget deficit. The smaller economy is going to have dramatically lower tax collections, driving the federal deficit up even higher. But sovereign debt causes trade deficits, so we will enter a vicious cycle: the trade deficits will shrink our economy, which will increase the trade deficit, which will then decline by shrinking the economy some more, etc.

There is a non-zero chance of a Great Depression level collapse. It won't last as long as the Depression but the possibility of an economic collapse is positive. Hopefully not very high, but non-zero. It depends in large measure on Congress' budget gimmick.

If they push through the tax cuts pretending they don't cost anything -- when in reality they will cost $500B a year -- along with these tariffs and decreased tax enforcement, we could be seeing a debt spike like nothing we've ever seen.

 

[Duke Mu]

Yes, more revenue, increases in domestic production, more jobs, lower taxes for individuals etc

Smoot Hawley?

Tariffs tax Americans as a consumption tax, raising inflation while at the same time reducing consumption. The GDP sinks as spending and capital flow decreases. Reciprocal taxes from our (former) allies further reduce sales and our GDP triggering an inflation + recession = two mints in one!

Stock markets and investment capital collapse or are held on a tight grip. Capitalism does not function on a zero sum gain model. It has positive feedback loops that can expand or contract capital. Tonight I'm going to party like it's 1929.

 

[Silence Dogood]

It's unlikely we see a proportional increase in domestic production and even less likely we see an significant increase in employment opportunities.

Do you think their would be any employment opportunities if foreign companies manufactured in America?

 

[p5mmr9]

It can even be more catastrophic...as US trade deficits diminish - the incentive to utilize the US Dollar as the global reserve currency declines. This is the waning of American economic, military, and cultural power. It's hard to overstate how destructive our current path is.

 

[superrific]

What other tariffs? If increasing tariffs increases prices, why shouldn't we worry about price increases when corporate tax rates go up?

Not reciprocal tariffs. Targeted tariffs are, in my opinion, not helpful but they at least make some economic sense. This universal tariff is going to put American exporters at a tremendous disadvantage. Remember: all of our international trade is now going to be tariffed and probably in both directions. The rest of the world will have only a fraction of their imports taxed.

For instance, the stuff that Canada used to export to the US -- well, it will export it to Germany now. And the stuff that Germany exports here? They will export to Canada. The US won't be exporting because its products and only its products will be subject to high tariffs everywhere. And the production cannot shift to domestic markets that quickly. It will mean a drop in our standard of living.

The reason that we don't worry about price increases from corporate taxes is that corporate taxes do not make prices increase. If a company sells a product for $X, it's because $X is the highest profit price point. If the tax on profits goes up, $X is still the highest profit price point. The company will have a smaller bottom line but its prices will still be $X.

 

[superrific]

Do you think their would be any employment opportunities if foreign companies manufactured in America?

There would be more employment opportunities if aliens manufactured in America.

Foreign companies are not going to invest in manufacturing here because of a tariff. Quite the opposite. Trump is telling every country in the world, "we are an unreliable partner who can turn on a dime and punish foreigners for no reason." And the rest of the world will be telling Trump, "then we will do business elsewhere." Remember: the rest of the world will be trading tariff free.

 

[Silence Dogood]

Since when do you conservatives like the revenues from taxes? Here's an idea: don't raise taxes on consumers -- raise them on billionaires.

Tariffs are higher tariffs on individuals, not lower. They generally do not increase domestic production, and in this case they will not because we don't even have domestic production of lots of these goods.

Basically, here's what will happen with tariffs. The American trade deficits with other countries will decline. But that will not be because we sell any more; it will just be that we consume less. It will make us poorer, which is what the negative GDP growth coming down the pipe is going to show. The economy will shrink until the trade deficits level out.

But then there's the next problem, which is the budget deficit. The smaller economy is going to have dramatically lower tax collections, driving the federal deficit up even higher. But sovereign debt causes trade deficits, so we will enter a vicious cycle: the trade deficits will shrink our economy, which will increase the trade deficit, which will then decline by shrinking the economy some more, etc.

There is a non-zero chance of a Great Depression level collapse. It won't last as long as the Depression but the possibility of an economic collapse is positive. Hopefully not very high, but non-zero. It depends in large measure on Congress' budget gimmick.

If they push through the tax cuts pretending they don't cost anything -- when in reality they will cost $500B a year -- along with these tariffs and decreased tax enforcement, we could be seeing a debt spike like nothing we've ever seen.

Why are other countries allowed to have higher tariffs on our goods than we do for theirs?

 

[Duke Mu]