Tariffs Catch-All

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StrangePackage said:
I'm confident that's not constitutional... But I've been really wrong recently.
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Yes, as I explained above. But it's also true that building in an exemption from tariffs imposed from without is not quite the same as imposing a trade barrier (which is what the Supremes have adjudicated). Is that a distinction that makes enough of a distinction? My intuition is no, but I haven't thought about it.

The source of the trade power being federal is the idea that foreign policy and international trade are generally committed to the executive branch, and state trade barriers could (and indeed in many cases would) undermine American policies. But let's suppose Newsom manages to convince China not to tariff almonds grown in California. How would that undermine any federal policy? If China wanted to gift Oregon $300M, would Oregon really be required to refuse the offer? Maybe, but it's not as clear as the reverse case.
 
nycfan said:

Gavin Newsom angles for California exemptions to Trump trade war​



“California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday he is pursuing agreements with other countries to ensure California is exempted from retaliatory tariffs stemming from President Trump's escalating trade war. …”
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I think i remember remarking that this very approach would and should happen.

Two steps down the road is Dem governors mobilizing their state national guard to secure their ports and ensure no federal duties are collected on imports.
 
Lololololol yeah, boy, literally the entire world has TDS. Economists all over the world, liberal and conservative alike, are saying these tariffs are beyond the worse economic policy imaginable. But they all have TDS! Nothing gets past our MAGAts.

Gotta at least give Silence credit for being here and trying to defend this bullshit even though his arguments are painfully stupid. All of the rest of the board MAGAts are far too big of cuck pusses to even try to do so. So, salute to Silence.
 
superrific said:
No other countries have raised their tariffs outside of the GATT process. Only Trump flagrantly broke the rules. You might have noticed that other countries are making efforts to match the US tariffs dollar-for-dollar. That's because the GATT allows them to retaliate, but retaliatory tariffs can't be punitive. They have to basically zero out the trade impact of the illegal tariffs.

Y'all got to stop with the "the world is taking advantage of us." America is the biggest beneficiary of the global trading system and it's not close.
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Our tariffs are still lower than theirs. Other countries also manipulated their currencies, subsidized their exports, stole our intellectual property, imposed higher taxes to disadvantage our products, and imposed unfair rules and technical standards.
 
CFordUNC said:
Lololololol yeah, boy, literally the entire world has TDS. Economists all over the world, liberal and conservative alike, are saying these tariffs are beyond the worse economic policy imaginable. But they all have TDS! Nothing gets past our MAGAts.

Gotta at least give Silence credit for being here and trying to defend this bullshit even though his arguments are painfully stupid. All of the rest of the board MAGAts are far too big of cuck pusses to even try to do so. So, salute to Silence.
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Keep gobbling up the corrupt system
 
superrific said:
No other countries have raised their tariffs outside of the GATT process. Only Trump flagrantly broke the rules. You might have noticed that other countries are making efforts to match the US tariffs dollar-for-dollar. That's because the GATT allows them to retaliate, but retaliatory tariffs can't be punitive. They have to basically zero out the trade impact of the illegal tariffs.

Y'all got to stop with the "the world is taking advantage of us." America is the biggest beneficiary of the global trading system and it's not close.
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Silence doesn't seem to understand the benefit he recieved from international trade.

He will only be happy when manufacturing jobs are back in the US and his clothing all quadrooples in price. That will teach those countries not to take advantage of us.
 
Silence Dogood said:
Our tariffs are still lower than theirs. Other countries also manipulated their currencies, subsidized their exports, stole our intellectual property, imposed higher taxes to disadvantage our products, and imposed unfair rules and technical standards.
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1. Our tariffs are now higher than everyone's.

2. Why don't you tell us about that currency manipulation, export subsidies, and unfair rules and technical standards? Who was doing it? How? Why? And was it allowed or not allowed under international treaties? Also, if you could tell us how the US isn't doing any of that, we'd be much obliged.

3. Bet you didn't know that there's a remedy for those non-tariff barriers. The US can sue in the WTO and get a WTO ruling that those measures are not in keeping with GATT obligations, and then the retaliatory tariffs would be legal.

Indeed, there's a precedent. Obama sued the EU over some discriminatory policies, and won. It fell to Trump to implement the retaliatory tariffs. Did he use those tariffs they way they are supposed to be used -- i.e. to pressure industries in the EU to get the EU to drop the policies in question? He did not. He instead punished blue areas in this country.

Here was the effect of those tariffs on me: I used to make a delightful salad prominently featuring sheep's milk feta from Bulgaria or Greece. After Trump's idiotic retaliatory tariffs, I can no longer consistently get sheep's milk feta. It isn't made in the US. So I don't get to make that salad any more. My sons all loved it. I mean, that's a small effect, but it decreased my quality of life. And when you repeat that process over the hundreds or thousands of items in your life that are affected by trade, you really start to see the erosion.

Trump has made us poorer. That's just a fact. That's why the market is crashing.
 
Silence Dogood said:
Keep gobbling up the corrupt system
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Corrupt? The rules based international order is the least corrupt system of international trade ever. Rules prevent corruption.

At no time from 1948-2016 did anything happen in the global trading system that America didn't approve. At any point, America could have pulled the plug on the GATT/WTO experiment if it didn't serve our national interests. ANY TIME. We didn't have to accept the tariff reduction negotiations produced by seven rounds of painstaking negotiations -- there was literally an entire decade's worth of negotiations that took place in the trade rounds alone, to say nothing of all the behind-the-scenes conversations.

Here's a list of presidents who approved of this "corrupt system" and eagerly embraced it for America's benefit:

Truman. Eisenhower. Kennedy. LBJ. Nixon (mostly). Ford. Carter. Reagan (who fought to get more tariff concessions globally). Bush 41. Clinton. Bush 43. Obama.

That's a pretty good sampling of presidents across the ideological spectrum. Every single one of them realized free trade was in America's interests. But Trump comes in and knows better than everyone, even though he patently and obviously doesn't understand the first principles of trade?

The system was not corrupt. The system led to unprecedented prosperity.
 
Silence Dogood said:
Our tariffs are still lower than theirs. Other countries also manipulated their currencies, subsidized their exports, stole our intellectual property, imposed higher taxes to disadvantage our products, and imposed unfair rules and technical standards.
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Wow, and somehow we have the strongest economy in the world. Well we did, but Trump is fucking that up in hopes that everyone will bow down to him.

Are you an economist? Have you any clue why basically every economist is disagreeing with trump?

It's amazing you don't trust people who have devoted their lives to studying the very complex constructs of economics. But you trust a failed business man who's only success was being born on third base, a man that has had multiple failed businesses, multiple bankrupt businesses, has been convicted of fraud, and has such low reading comprehension that he can't simply read the history of the last time we took this approach to understand why it isn't working.

Talk about TDS...
 
Bobfripp said:
I'm trying to get a better understanding of what Pres. Meathead is trying to do ... it seems he's following the advice of Stephen Miran. :unsure:

www.lowyinstitute.org

Unpacking the Mar-a-Lago Accord | Lowy Institute

The idea is unlikely to deliver the reduced deficits and bring back good jobs that are the primary motivation.
www.lowyinstitute.org www.lowyinstitute.org
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The most hilarious thing about the "Mar-A-Lago accord" is the expectation that other countries will trade their holding of our treasury bonds for special non-tradeable, 100 year zero coupon bonds. That's pure extortion. The value of a 100 year zero coupon bond is exceedingly close to zero.

According to my back of the envelope analysis, the payment that the US would owe at the end of the 100 years would be 211 times higher than the committed capital. So if we "borrowed" $1T, we would have to pay $211T in 2125. As if that's going to happen.

The odds that the US and the creditor nation will both be around in 100 years are not that great, so in addition to the obvious ridiculousness of the payment amount, there's a substantial possibility of default by dissolution. Hell, will humanity be around in 100 years?

So I know this will be shocking, but the main feature of the "Mar-a-Lago" accord would be to strongarm countries into trading bonds with $100 each for bonds worth very close to $0 each. Yep.
 
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