Tariffs Catch-All

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superrific said:
There's a reason why hedge is talking in the past tense. He would have made a lot of money. But that's an insanely risky strategy and it's really easy to lose everything.
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^This. That's why I prefaced my post with "of course this is cherry-picking." I worked on the options floor of the old P-Coast exchange in the 90's, it was the wild west back then and the run in tech stocks for much of the decade contributed mightily to that. It was fun to look back at what something had traded for in the morning and see what it had done by the afternoon and of course I was staring at the screen all day anyway so why not dream. But even for a cherry-picking hobbyist like myself, that move today was off the charts. FWIW, I thought CatTech might've been referring to the type of insider knowledge those in Trump's circle might have, i.e., exactly (or even roughly) when Trump was going to announce a pause on tariffs. That's the type of "knowledge" that actually can make you a fortune...
 
hedge said:
^This. That's why I prefaced my post with "of course this is cherry-picking." I worked on the options floor of the old P-Coast exchange in the 90's, it was the wild west back then and the run in tech stocks for much of the decade contributed mightily to that. It was fun to look back at what something had traded for in the morning and see what it had done by the afternoon and of course I was staring at the screen all day anyway so why not dream. But even for a cherry-picking hobbyist like myself, that move today was off the charts. FWIW, I thought CatTech might've been referring to the type of insider knowledge those in Trump's circle might have, i.e., exactly (or even roughly) when Trump was going to announce a pause on tariffs. That's the type of "knowledge" that actually can make you a fortune...
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And it is also the type of behavior that will destroy our country.

There is no way to rein it in. I mean they can take the control of tariffs away but the manipulation will persist beyond Trump because why not? Big donors will expect manipulation and insider knowledge now that it is the new norm and likely not prosecutable.

That could be the reason for the tweet earlier. He probably told insiders when I tweet this it will be a signal. Those reacting will just claim it is a public tweet and thus public knowledge. But of course they don't have to guess exactly what the tweet means.
 
So who really floated the idea”Walter Bloomberg” 90 day pause? Was it done to convince Trump to go this route?

And, to be clear, it is not actually a pause — the tariffs continue at 10% across the board, the 90-days is a reduction in higher announced rates to the flat 10% (and doesn’t u do other tariffs on autos and steel etc.).
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
And it is also the type of behavior that will destroy our country.

There is no way to rein it in. I mean they can take the control of tariffs away but the manipulation will persist beyond Trump because why not? Big donors will expect manipulation and insider knowledge now that it is the new norm and likely not prosecutable.

That could be the reason for the tweet earlier. He probably told insiders when I tweet this it will be a signal. Those reacting will just claim it is a public tweet and thus public knowledge.
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He's a mafia don. And the world is his Todt Hill.
 
farce© said:
"Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that the pause indicated that Trump cared about trade and wanted to make “bespoke” trade deals with countries that were willing to lower barriers. Bessent also arguied that Trump “goaded” China into showing that they were the “bad actors.” -NY Times
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If he said "bespoke," then you know he is serious. I hate that word so much.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Exactly. He got through today, but Trump can’t stand strong for long if the stock market is declining and rich people are unhappy.

If I was a foreign nation, I’d hold the line, Trump will cave and be willing to announce a bogus deal that allows him to claim victory even though nothing changes.
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Correction - Trump will cave before he can even claim victory.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Correction - Trump will cave before he can even claim victory.
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Trump has CAVED, PROFITED, and CLAIMED VICTORY. From a Criminal perspective, you have to give him "props." A perfect crime. In broad daylight. fml

When I say perfect crime, I mean the pocketbooks of BB and Trump. the NATION will continue to SUFFER. FAOL
 
superrific said:
No, it shows that he's even more irrational. It shows conclusively that there was no plan -- not that anyone thought there was, but this proves it.

So Trump has ripped up all of our trade treaties, and now has absolutely nothing to show for it. We collected basically nothing from the one week of tariffs; we pissed off everyone across the world; and business uncertainty ramped up. For what? FOR WHAT?

The main non-tariff barrier US companies are going to be facing in the next couple of years is the resentment of other countries toward the US. These boycotts aren't going to just go away. And there are non-US companies getting free market share, which the US companies might find hard to claw back.
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He clearly had no plan. He's an impulsive moron, but he has just enough sanity and rationality to recognize the impact of his tariffs IF they were not paused.

That glimmer of sanity, I believe, is a good sign. He's not willing to set fire to our economy.
 
Duke Mu said:
Trump has CAVED, PROFITED, and CLAIMED VICTORY. From a Criminal perspective, you have to give him "props." A perfect crime. In broad daylight. fml

When I say perfect crime, I mean the pocketbooks of BB and Trump. the NATION will continue to SUFFER. FAOL
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It would be interesting to see the day’s transactions in Don Jr’s RobinHood account.
 
superrific said:
The vast majority of this type of "knowledge" is used for money-losing purposes by Dunning Kruger types. My dad has that kind of knowledge and has lost hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to play with options.
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I would say this is generally true, at least from my experience, but I certainly wouldn't call it the vast majority. I've seen a lot of people make a shit-ton of money with options but certainly seen plenty of people like your dad lose a shit-ton as well (I don't know what a Dunning Kruger type is).
 
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