Tariffs Catch-All

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HintonJamesHeel said:
Let’s be honest, so much is going to happen between now and then this is going to seem like the 70s. We have years left with these administration. They are dog years.
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I hear you, and you're absolutely right about the impact of the passage of time. Corn belt voters tend to be fairly single-issue, though, and if tariffs stay in place, and if the administration doesn't bail out the farmers like he did last time, there will be a lot of anger when the next election rolls around. May not change things because those states are so deeply red at this point, but it's another example of Trump kicking his own base in the nuts.
 
UNCatTech said:
You might want to reconsider why folks get exasperated when discussing things with you. I believe you may have it incorrect.
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I'm sure everyone has their own feelings about it. That's just my sense of the majority or perhaps just the loudest but I could totally be wrong. No worries either way.
 
Soybean farmers in Iowa are less susceptible to Chinese tariffs because China moved a significant number of their imports to Brazil in the last Trump administration. Those sales aren't coming back soon, tariffs or no tariffs.

Trump is essentially enacting an import substitution program. But that requires long-term capital investment, which requires economic stability and foreign investment. The way to approach this are programs like Biden's CHIPS act, which he's walked away from. It also requires a highly trained work force, but our government is underinvesting to reverse the academic decline of the past decade and we are making it harder for foreign workers (and students) to bridge the gap.

All of this inhibits economic growth. Most of our fiscal and societal problems depend on economic growth to fix. The damage done in the last week can't be offset by the nickels and dimes that DOGE is saving - our interest payments on the debt will increase, we will have fewer inflows into social security, our tax revenues are declining and we are spending less on mitigation programs for disease and natural disasters.

Essentially, we looked at Brexit, sighed, and gasped a little too confidently, "Hold my beer!"
 
Huh? said:
Soybean farmers in Iowa are less susceptible to Chinese tariffs because China moved a significant number of their imports to Brazil in the last Trump administration. Those sales aren't coming back soon, tariffs or no tariffs.

Trump is essentially enacting an import substitution program. But that requires long-term capital investment, which requires economic stability and foreign investment. The way to approach this are programs like Biden's CHIPS act, which he's walked away from. It also requires a highly trained work force, but our government is underinvesting to reverse the academic decline of the past decade and we are making it harder for foreign workers (and students) to bridge the gap.

All of this inhibits economic growth. Most of our fiscal and societal problems depend on economic growth to fix. The damage done in the last week can't be offset by the nickels and dimes that DOGE is saving - our interest payments on the debt will increase, we will have fewer inflows into social security, our tax revenues are declining and we are spending less on mitigation programs for disease and natural disasters.

Essentially, we looked at Brexit, sighed, and gasped a little too confidently, "Hold my beer!"
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Agreed, but to make things immensely worse and less explicable, we did Brexit on Steroids AFTER seeing how disastrous Brexit was for the UK.
 
lawtig02 said:
I hear you, and you're absolutely right about the impact of the passage of time. Corn belt voters tend to be fairly single-issue, though, and if tariffs stay in place, and if the administration doesn't bail out the farmers like he did last time, there will be a lot of anger when the next election rolls around. May not change things because those states are so deeply red at this point, but it's another example of Trump kicking his own base in the nuts.
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A month before the election in 2028 the Democrat candidate will come out for men playing in WNBA and although that would never occur, the swing voters will forget the prices of everything going crazy and have to stop the “madness.” We’ve seen this script before.
 
One thing I'm reading more and more about over the last couple of days -- with the 90-day pause, a lot of companies are trying to get big orders into the country as quickly as possible. That could actually drive up activity (and increase our trade deficits) over the next quarter. It's borrowing against the future, though, and if we really do fall into a recession, it means inventories will be frighteningly high. So I guess we all just need to buckle up. This roller coaster is not likely to resolve in 30, 60, 90 or 150 days. It will be months before we start seeing the real, lasting impacts of the economic chaos Trump has unleashed on the world.
 
lawtig02 said:
Agreed, but to make things immensely worse and less explicable, we did Brexit on Steroids AFTER seeing how disastrous Brexit was for the UK.
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One of trumps rules to live by, refuse to learn from the mistakes of others.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
A month before the election in 2028 the Democrat candidate will come out for men playing in WNBA and although that would never occur, the swing voters will forget the prices of everything going crazy and have to stop the “madness.” We’ve seen this script before.
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I will never stop sorting equality and human rights, which i see LBGTQ and racial issues as, but i do understand the marketing needed to get elected.

But damn it would be nice if people understood basic math. Basic math tells us that 1 trans female in Utah can't be a whole team like that idiot from Alabama thinks it can.
 
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lawtig02 said:
One thing I'm reading more and more about over the last couple of days -- with the 90-day pause, a lot of companies are trying to get big orders into the country as quickly as possible. That could actually drive up activity (and increase our trade deficits) over the next quarter. It's borrowing against the future, though, and if we really do fall into a recession, it means inventories will be frighteningly high. So I guess we all just need to buckle up. This roller coaster is not likely to resolve in 30, 60, 90 or 150 days. It will be months before we start seeing the real, lasting impacts of the economic chaos Trump has unleashed on the world.
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It can't resolve until those on the right grow a set of balls and stand up to Trump. Instead of worshipping him.
 
lawtig02 said:
One thing I'm reading more and more about over the last couple of days -- with the 90-day pause, a lot of companies are trying to get big orders into the country as quickly as possible. That could actually drive up activity (and increase our trade deficits) over the next quarter. It's borrowing against the future, though, and if we really do fall into a recession, it means inventories will be frighteningly high. So I guess we all just need to buckle up. This roller coaster is not likely to resolve in 30, 60, 90 or 150 days. It will be months before we start seeing the real, lasting impacts of the economic chaos Trump has unleashed on the world.
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I'm skeptical. The 90 day "pause" is actually a cancellation. If they were intelligent, they wouldn't say pause -- a 90 day pause on tariffs is probably the single worst situation to be in (as you get most of the costs but none of the benefits) -- but anyway surely the world has figured out by now that pause means "we're backing down without saying so).
 
superrific said:
I'm skeptical. The 90 day "pause" is actually a cancellation. If they were intelligent, they wouldn't say pause -- a 90 day pause on tariffs is probably the single worst situation to be in (as you get most of the costs but none of the benefits) -- but anyway surely the world has figured out by now that pause means "we're backing down without saying so).
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That’s possible, but even if some smaller percentage of US importers interpret it as a pause rather than a cancelation, that could still distort the timing of everything. I just won’t be at all surprised to see an uptick in orders in the next month or two, and then a fall off later in the year, regardless of what ultimately happens with the tariffs. That impacts everyone from the actual manufacturers to the shipping companies to the longshoremen to the warehouse workers. It’s economic chaos for no reason whatsoever.
 
superrific said:
but anyway surely the world has figured out by now that pause means "we're backing down without saying so).
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Definitely true... until we're not. I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't double down (yet again) and restart the tariffs at least for a couple of days at the end of the 90 days.
 
UNCatTech said:
I will never stop sorting equality and human rights, which i see LBGTQ and racial issues as, but i do understand the marketing needed to get elected.

But damn it would be nice if people understood basic math. Basic math tells us that 1 trans female in Utah can't be a while team like that idiot from Alabama thinks it can.
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I was telling an individual I know that Trumps tariff plan was the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. He quickly pivoted to the “you aren’t for men in women’s sports though, right?” He’s actually a very smart guy. I just think we have had our best days as a nation when you have to be some zombie to your side.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
I was telling an individual I know that Trumps tariff plan was the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. He quickly pivoted to the “you aren’t for men in women’s sports though, right?” He’s actually a very smart guy. I just think we have had our best days as a nation when you have to be some zombie to your side.
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I pointed out to my dad that Trump is crashing the economy in record time. The response was "at least he knows how to use an autopen" or something stupid like that (it was about the autopen in some capacity).

The personality traits drawn to MAGA are the same ones that tend to prevent people from admitting error and backing down. Bad combo.
 
You're also seeing an uptick in orders to draw down existing inventory bought before the tariffs went into effect.

What will slow down immediately is capital investment that requires stable business conditions to feel comfortable about forward ROI.
 
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