Tariffs Catch-All

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lawtig02 said:
One thing I'm reading more and more about over the last couple of days -- with the 90-day pause, a lot of companies are trying to get big orders into the country as quickly as possible. That could actually drive up activity (and increase our trade deficits) over the next quarter. It's borrowing against the future, though, and if we really do fall into a recession, it means inventories will be frighteningly high. So I guess we all just need to buckle up. This roller coaster is not likely to resolve in 30, 60, 90 or 150 days. It will be months before we start seeing the real, lasting impacts of the economic chaos Trump has unleashed on the world.
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I'm skeptical. The 90 day "pause" is actually a cancellation. If they were intelligent, they wouldn't say pause -- a 90 day pause on tariffs is probably the single worst situation to be in (as you get most of the costs but none of the benefits) -- but anyway surely the world has figured out by now that pause means "we're backing down without saying so).
 
superrific said:
I'm skeptical. The 90 day "pause" is actually a cancellation. If they were intelligent, they wouldn't say pause -- a 90 day pause on tariffs is probably the single worst situation to be in (as you get most of the costs but none of the benefits) -- but anyway surely the world has figured out by now that pause means "we're backing down without saying so).
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That’s possible, but even if some smaller percentage of US importers interpret it as a pause rather than a cancelation, that could still distort the timing of everything. I just won’t be at all surprised to see an uptick in orders in the next month or two, and then a fall off later in the year, regardless of what ultimately happens with the tariffs. That impacts everyone from the actual manufacturers to the shipping companies to the longshoremen to the warehouse workers. It’s economic chaos for no reason whatsoever.
 
superrific said:
but anyway surely the world has figured out by now that pause means "we're backing down without saying so).
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Definitely true... until we're not. I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't double down (yet again) and restart the tariffs at least for a couple of days at the end of the 90 days.
 
UNCatTech said:
I will never stop sorting equality and human rights, which i see LBGTQ and racial issues as, but i do understand the marketing needed to get elected.

But damn it would be nice if people understood basic math. Basic math tells us that 1 trans female in Utah can't be a while team like that idiot from Alabama thinks it can.
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I was telling an individual I know that Trumps tariff plan was the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. He quickly pivoted to the “you aren’t for men in women’s sports though, right?” He’s actually a very smart guy. I just think we have had our best days as a nation when you have to be some zombie to your side.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
I was telling an individual I know that Trumps tariff plan was the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. He quickly pivoted to the “you aren’t for men in women’s sports though, right?” He’s actually a very smart guy. I just think we have had our best days as a nation when you have to be some zombie to your side.
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I pointed out to my dad that Trump is crashing the economy in record time. The response was "at least he knows how to use an autopen" or something stupid like that (it was about the autopen in some capacity).

The personality traits drawn to MAGA are the same ones that tend to prevent people from admitting error and backing down. Bad combo.
 
You're also seeing an uptick in orders to draw down existing inventory bought before the tariffs went into effect.

What will slow down immediately is capital investment that requires stable business conditions to feel comfortable about forward ROI.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
I was telling an individual I know that Trumps tariff plan was the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. He quickly pivoted to the “you aren’t for men in women’s sports though, right?” He’s actually a very smart guy. I just think we have had our best days as a nation when you have to be some zombie to your side.
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Just tell him to read the Republican Governor of Utah's response to his veto of the hate trans athletes bill.
 
UNCatTech said:
Yes, considering it was ghost written, he's probably never actually read it, not that I blame him.
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He's never written any of his books (no surprise of course), as they're all ghostwritten. The guy he hired to write The Art of the Deal, Tony Schwartz, spent 18 months working with Trump on the book back in the 80s and so got a good up-close view of the man. He later said that he should have titled the book The Sociopath. When Trump first ran for president in 2016 Schwartz told any media outlet that would listen that in his opinion Trump was totally unqualified to be POTUS. He said he regretted placing Trump in a positive light.

Schwartz said in 2016 that “I put lipstick on a pig...I feel a deep sense of remorse that I contributed to presenting Trump in a way that brought him wider attention and made him more appealing than he is"...His first attempts to get Trump to participate in a series of traditional interviews did not work. Schwartz said discussion was consistently hobbled due to Trump’s short attention span, with Trump fidgeting until he’d ultimately call off the session. “It’s impossible to keep him focused on any topic, other than his own self-aggrandisement, for more than a few minutes,” Schwartz said. “If he had to be briefed on a crisis in the Situation Room, it’s impossible to imagine him paying attention over a long period of time.”

"Schwartz told the New Yorker he found the process [of writing the book] draining and said that he had made a concerted effort to make Trump appear “a sympathetic character” in order to ensure the book’s success, rather than “just hateful or, worse yet, a one-dimensional blowhard”. He said he purposely left out unflattering details of Trump’s character and business, including the knowledge that Trump had lied to him about the success of his casinos and hotels. The Trump Taj Mahal and Trump Plaza Hotel would subsequently both file for bankruptcy."

Just another in a long line of people who knew Trump well and who had worked with him directly who warned anyone who would listen starting in 2016 that Trump was totally unqualified for the office, and yet not enough people listened.
 
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Silence Dogood said:
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"US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on most imports, sparking concerns that a global trade war would dent economic growth and hit fuel demand."

Lowered fuel demand sends oil prices down. Woohoo, Mr. Dogood! We get lower oil prices because people are expecting economic growth to plummet. Does that make you happy? Another own goal by Trump!
 




The Trump Administration had been openly seeking a weaker dollar to encourage development of mfg inside the USA. Three weeks ago:

US dollar global reserve currency: Will Donald Trump devalue the mighty dominant global reserve currency, Dollar? Here's what a report states - The Economic Times

Explore the potential impacts of Donald Trump's policies on the US dollar, including historical parallels and proposed solutions for a weaker dollar.
m.economictimes.com m.economictimes.com

“…Reagan collaborated with foreign allies to devalue the dollar via the Plaza Accord, as per the report. The dollar depreciated by around 40% and increased US exports while softening the trade deficit, reported Telegraph.

Some people in the Trump's administration are now demanding a "Mar-a-Lago Accord," referencing Reagan's approach, as per the report.

… To get a weaker dollar, Trump's advisors have proposed some options, such as making other nations tie their currencies to the dollar or deterring foreign investment in US Treasury bonds, as per Telegraph. These might be effective in the short term, but they pose risks that could make global markets and the US economy unstable, according to the report.
 
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