Tariffs Catch-All

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Yes and no, IMO.

Trump’s definitely riding highs of the wave of the Biden economy. And the market has done well to negotiate Trump’s uncertainty and TACO tactics over the first 6-7 months.

But we’re only just beginning to see the effects of the destruction of our long-standing trade alliances and the imposition of tariffs.

Just like we’re only just now starting to see the effects on the jobs market of all the DOGE cuts and the destruction of our medical/scientific research infrastructure and public health infrastructure.

It’s going to be a downward trend from here, IMO…the only questions are how steep and how soon.

The long-term effects of the disruption and potential destruction of long-term trade alliances are a concern. China now has inroads with Europe. The EU and UK will trade more heavily with Canada, Mexico, SE Asia.

Tariff agreements are hundreds to thousands of pages long and passed by Congress. Nations are just going along, finding a way for Trump to TACO...and it usually means paying "protection" or extortion $$.


Having said that any tariffs collected from importers affect the supply chain to the consumer.

So...Trump is taxing

1. Businesses absorbing costs and reducing their profits (anti-business)

and/or is

2. Consumers pay more and thus Anti-working class and anti-middle class.

Therefore, the tariff games are not sustainable. Especially, ir and after a wave of inflation hits

However, trade alliance damage and reduced options for business and trade of information, intellectual property is likely to have repercussions for years.

The US has limited or no i.p. and student exchange with China. I'm hearing that many European academic institutions are blackballing the US because of Trump's folly.

We arrive at a related issue. Lack of CONFIDENCE in USA, Inc. and the Dollar. Eventually, after numerous business failures US banks stopped loading money to Trump and Daddy Fred had passed...so Trump looked toward Russian oligarchs for incoming capital flow.

The dollar continues to sink, reflecting reduced confidence in the US economy and government. Even if a sane person is elected POTUS in 2028, there is no guarantee US voters won't go full idiot again in the following election.

dollar weakning.jpg
Therefore
 
After doing gangbuster business in the post-COVID era, Las Vegas is in the midst of a slump, with the number of tourists down sharply as Canadians in particular avoid Sin City amid bilateral bad blood over trade.

The total number of visitors is off more than 11 per cent year-over-year, according to data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, one of the most dramatic declines in recent memory outside of the pandemic.

Airline figures reveal there's been an even steeper decline among Canadians going to the desert gambling mecca.

The number of Air Canada passengers dropped by 33 per cent in June compared to the same month last year, airport figures show. WestJet, the largest Canadian air carrier at the region's Harry Reid International Airport, saw a similar 31 per cent drop. The decline was even more dramatic for low-cost carrier Flair, which saw its passenger numbers fall by a stunning 62 per cent.

...
"International visitation has been an issue," Hornbuckle said. "Particularly earlier in the year, with Canada, we host a lot of hockey games, and we saw visitation down. And I think — I don't think, I know — it's still down," he said.

...

Winnipeg resident Martyn Daly is one of those visitors who's staying away. In an interview with CBC News, Daly said he and his wife typically go to Vegas once a year, but he can't bring himself to do it this year with the trade war raging.

"We're pretty upset with what's going on in the U.S. and the disrespect that's been shown by the Trump administration towards Canada. I just feel obliged to do something — and one little thing I can do is not patronizing a place we enjoy," he said. "It's not a good idea to be spending any of our hard-earned money in the States. I can spend it elsewhere with a clear conscience."


...


Nevada's unemployment rate, at 5.4 per cent, is the highest among the states and second only to Washington, D.C., where there have been Trump-induced federal layoffs.

One of Nevada's U.S. senators, Catherine Cortez Masto, was part of a bipartisan delegation to Ottawa last month to meet with Prime Minister Mark Carney to try and patch up relations amid what she called "the chaos of the Trump presidency."

...

As the director of the university's business and economic research centre, he crunched the numbers and found Canadians contributed $3.6 billion US to the local economy last year.

Canadian spending supported some 43,000 jobs in the region, more than those employed in the manufacturing sector, Miller said.
 
^ Again, I am not a businessman. Is $3.6 Billion a lot? Should we want that money to keep 43,000 people working? I assume those 43,000 people likely spend money elsewhere, but I am not good with business like stuff that the Republicans seem to be so good at.
 

Why Haven’t Tariffs Boosted Inflation? This Theory Is Gaining Traction​

New research suggests the actual tariff rates are well below what economists have suspected​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/t...a?st=Mw8GXA&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“…
In a new study, Barclays economists went through census data to see what tariffs importers actually paid in May. They found that the weighted-average tariff rate—the average of all tariffs, adjusted for import volume from each country—that month was around 9%. That number is well below the 12% rate that they had previously estimated based on White House announcements, and far less than what some others have estimated.

The reason is that more than half of U.S. imports were duty-free, the Barclays study says, and because many U.S. companies and consumers bought less from countries with higher levies, particularly China.

“The real surprise in the U.S. economy’s resilience lies not in its reaction to tariffs but that the rise in the effective tariff rate has been more modest than commonly thought,” the Barclays report says. …

… Barclays research suggests that inflation hasn’t increased that much partly because the U.S. hasn’t collected tariffs on many goods—for now. In June, just 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs, thanks to myriad exemptions, according to the bank’s analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.

Goods like pharmaceuticals, certain electronics and semiconductors and many imports from Canada and Mexico were exempted from Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs. There are also partial exemptions for goods with at least 20% U.S.-made components.

Ultimately, however, the actual rates importers pay are likely to rise in months to come, according to Barclays. Many of the existing loopholes could close. Trump has threatened 250% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and 100% tariffs on semiconductors. The White House has also said that as of later this month, it is suspending the de minimis exemption, which allows duty-free shipments to the U.S. as long as they are valued at $800 or less.

Others using different methodologies have pegged the tariffs at much higher rates. The Budget Lab at Yale, a policy-research center, for instance, estimates that U.S. consumers currently face effective average tariffs of 18.6%, down from 21.9% in late May. The lab’s director of economics, Ernie Tedeschi, says his research also shows that the real average rate companies actually pay has been lower.…”
 
As you know I am not an economist - Is your largest customer starting to buy more product from your competitor good for business?


The Great White North is sidestepping tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. It’s been looking for creative ways to do it for a few months. Now, for the first time in 30 years, it’s bought more cars from Mexico than it did from the U.S.
Good or bad? Doesn’t matter.

Trump said yesterday he doesn’t care. Does. Not. Care.
 
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