Tariffs Catch-All

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mpaer said:
Help us here Super
This " overturning " does not take effect until Oct ? Or just some of them?
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See, this is why media sources are unreliable. I don't know where the October thing came from. I was reading the opinion, but figured that the news story would at least correctly describe the remedy. It did not. I've edited accordingly.

Never mind the above. I was originally correct about October. See below.

Here's what is really happening: the Federal Circuit remanded to the trial court to determine whether a universal injunction remedy is appropriate, given that the Supreme Court recently changed the standards for a universal injunction. So now the trial court has to determine whether enjoining the tariffs in their entirety is necessary to give the plaintiffs complete relief. I'm pretty sure the answer is yes, though not positive (it's unworkable to charge different duties for different importers, and possibly unconstitutional).

The administration could appeal this straight to the Supreme Court, but I doubt the Supremes will take it up -- rather, it will probably let the trial court sort it out in the first instance, because that's what they did for birthright citizenship.

So we're looking at a remand to the trial court. Rebriefing and consideration would be needed, but the issues are straightforward so we might have a decision from that court in a month. Possibly sooner, but I doubt it. I have almost no experience with the Court of International Trade so I don't know how quickly or sluggishly it works.

This first stage will likely enter an injunction against enforcement, but I expect that will be stayed pending appeal. So it will go the Federal Circuit, which could take another two months or so, judging by the pace of this case. I expect the Federal Circuit to dissolve the stay and render a final judgment. Then the administration will appeal to the Supremes, which could choose to take the case or not. It could choose a quick schedule or not. It could impose a stay or not. Basically, all options are open at SCOTUS and I won't try to predict what they will do.

At the end of all this, I suspect the tariffs will be invalidated but I have no confidence in that projection given that SCOTUS gonna SCOTUS. And we might reach a resolution by the end of the year, or the end of next year, or who knows.
 
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I should add that this ruling only applies to the trafficking tariffs against Canada Mexico and China, and the reciprocal tariffs imposed on countries around the world.

It does not address the sectoral tariffs like steel, aluminum, semiconductors, etc. Those tariffs are likely on firm legal footing, though economically stupid.

An interesting wild card: what about the "trade deals"? I think it now matters whether anything has been committed to writing. If the EU signed a treaty, even if the threatened tariffs are unlawful, the president could submit the treaty to Congress and it would be subject to a majority up-and-down vote of both houses. That's because -- for reasons I don't really know -- trade treaties are not considered treaties at all, but rather trade "agreements." Don't ask me. I don't know.

But if there hasn't been anything in writing and signed by the relevant authorities, then I would expect the EU, Japan, etc. to basically withdraw from the "agreement"
 
mpaer said:
Help us here Super
This " overturning " does not take effect until Oct ? Or just some of them?
Click to expand...
All right, take #3. I'm not familiar with the Federal Circuit website or court procedures, so I wasn't looking in quite the right place.

The above timeline is correct as far as I know, with one correction: the case doesn't go back to the trial court until October 14, to give the parties time to appeal to SCOTUS. So if SCOTUS doesn't act (as I suspect it won't, based on the birthright citizenship case), the process outlined above will start about a month and a half from now and the timeline should proceed accordingly.

That said, I'm no expert on CIT or Fed Circuit procedure and seeing as how I've already messed this up a couple of times, you probably shouldn't take my timeline too seriously.
 
By the way, I learned something today. There is an active judge on the Federal Circuit who was born in 1927. That's right, she's 98. Not senior status, but active.

In 2023, the chief judge of the circuit suspended her from active duty because of evidence of severe mental decline and the judge's failure to participate properly in an investigation. I'm not sure if this procedure has any validity to it, but I'm guessing the CJ is just hoping she will croak

98 years old for a federal circuit court judge is strong evidence that we really, really need to revisit life tenure.
 
nycfan said:
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“… The court said the “‘unheralded’ and ‘transformative’” nature of the tariff policy triggered the major questions doctrine—a term the Supreme Court coined when striking down Biden administration policies, such as student debt relief, the justices saw as reaching far beyond the regulatory authority Congress had granted the executive branch….”
 
nycfan said:
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“… Pretariff inventories are running low, forcing companies to confront difficult pricing decisions they can no longer delay.

… Repricing, though, isn’t as easy as changing a tag—in part because suppliers and big-box stores are engaged in an epic tussle over who will pay what.

Retailers, including Lowe’s and Home Depot, buy Thompson Traders’ wares and set the retail price themselves. And they have been reluctant to pay Thompson Traders more.

…
By July, he was still awaiting a decision, so he nudged the retailer. Then, in late July, Trump hiked the tariff on Turkish goods to 15%.

Lowe’s, which declined to comment, last week finally agreed to a 4% to 5% increase on some sinks, but not all, DeVillers said. He hasn’t gone back to ask for more in the wake of the increased tariff, in part because he is not sure that 15% is the final levy. Thompson Traders may “have to eat it,” he said. “I’m not sure.”

Thompson Traders says Home Depot has agreed to price increases on some items but not all. The company hasn’t approached the retailer again about the increased tariff on Turkey.…”

🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/business/retail...8?st=rj7xhd&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
 
Trump: You want to avoid tariffs, build your products in America; build your factories in America. Of course, my other tariffs fluctuating daily means you can't lock down your material costs, also the workers who would do the construction might be rounded up at any point, but also the ones who are here legally are not going to show up because they are afraid their legal status will be thrown out or they will be disappeared before they can prove their status, which will bankrupt them. So um yeah invest in America for an unknown amount over an unknown amount of construction time due to worker shortages then when you are done hire Americans to make your things at a price of labor so high the profit point on the items will be too high for consumers to bear, in fact it will be higher than the tariffed rate. MAGA!
 
altmin said:
Trump: You want to avoid tariffs, build your products in America; build your factories in America. Of course, my other tariffs fluctuating daily means you can't lock down your material costs, also the workers who would do the construction might be rounded up at any point, but also the ones who are here legally are not going to show up because they are afraid their legal status will be thrown out or they will be disappeared before they can prove their status, which will bankrupt them. So um yeah invest in America for an unknown amount over an unknown amount of construction time due to worker shortages then when you are done hire Americans to make your things at a price of labor so high the profit point on the items will be too high for consumers to bear, in fact it will be higher than the tariffed rate. MAGA!
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And lower your prices while you’re at it!
 
Really what this ia abpuit if you want to avoid tariffs. We are becoming an authorican 3rd wor;d country where to get anything done you have to go see the supreme leader bearing gold, flattery and other "gifts."
Tariffs like Trump is doing are antiquted, long scorned merantilist policies which kill economies and hurt everuone byt the super wealthy and a fewq large corps.
The best way to bring back manuf is by using contracts, grants, subsidies and various tax poliocies Quot slashing tax rates for the rich an d large corps and raise them slightly. Trump always talks about how great teh 1950s were for middle class and the economy. Well back then, rhe tax rates for rich and large ciros were much higher and inequality was much less.

Tariffs like Trump's are the worst form of industrial policu, and championed by delusional, egotistical, mostly incompetent (DEI) folks with failed ideas like Peter Navarro who think you can turn the clock back to 1895, get rid of income tax and run thge govt off tariffs, All that does is lead to another Gilded Age of Robber Barons and rampant ineqialuty, with frequent recessions and boom/byst cycles.
 
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