Tariffs Catch-All

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Mulberry Heel said:
Dubya left the economy in shambles for Obama, and his dad didn't leave such a great economy for Clinton. It's the Republican way and represents the current vicious cycle we've been in since Clinton. GOP President screws up the economy, Democrat gets elected POTUS and after several years fixes the GOP's mess, then voters develop mass amnesia and elect a GOP president who screws everything up again, voters elect Democratic POTUS who once again fixes the mess, then voters elect another Republican who messes it up, and on and on apparently.
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This time they are screwing it up early rather than right at the tail end of their term.

That may make a difference in public perception.

Note: Dot com happened early in Bush 2 but I think it was far different - Bush policies had nothing to do with it, the fallout was limited to stock markets and the tech sector, and 9/11 changed the narrative.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
This time they are screwing it up early rather than right at the tail end of their term.

That may make a difference in public perception.

Note: Dot com happened early in Bush 2 but I think it was far different - Bush policies had nothing to do with it, the fallout was limited to stock markets and the tech sector, and 9/11 changed the narrative.
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It was the disaster in the ME, not dot com that put us in bad shape going into Obama's presidency.
 
finesse said:
It was the disaster in the ME, not dot com that put us in bad shape going into Obama's presidency.
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I wasn’t saying that dot com had any impact on Obama’s presidency. That was the Great Recession which Obama inherited.

I was just saying that this time it is different because Republicans are screwing it up early. After saying that I had to address dot com.

One thing I failed to mention was dot com was no longer an issue by 2004.

I suspect we will be in a deep mess long before 2028 and it will not be cleaned up before 2028.
 

How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs​

Inflation is lower than expected after President Trump’s steep levies​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/t...d?st=hWREGi&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… Inflation, while too high, is lower than forecasts. And the economy continues to grow despite the steepest tariffs in almost a century.

“I’m not sure they’ve mattered as much as people thought they would,” said Kelly Kowalski, head of investment strategies at MassMutual.

At the same time, the promised benefits of tariffs also largely haven’t come to pass: Revenues from Trump’s levies have been far lower than the Treasury Department predicted, and there are few signs of a domestic manufacturing boom….”

…
 
nycfan said:

How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs​

Inflation is lower than expected after President Trump’s steep levies​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/t...d?st=hWREGi&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… Inflation, while too high, is lower than forecasts. And the economy continues to grow despite the steepest tariffs in almost a century.

“I’m not sure they’ve mattered as much as people thought they would,” said Kelly Kowalski, head of investment strategies at MassMutual.

At the same time, the promised benefits of tariffs also largely haven’t come to pass: Revenues from Trump’s levies have been far lower than the Treasury Department predicted, and there are few signs of a domestic manufacturing boom….”

…
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“… One reason: The real tariffs companies pay are lower than the headline numbers suggest. This is underscored by weaker-than-expected customs and excise taxes collected by the U.S. Treasury.

The U.S. Treasury is on track to collect $34 billion in October, according to a Pantheon Macroeconomics analysis of customs data. If that pace continues, the U.S. would be on track for $400 billion over a full year, short of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August prediction that tariffs could bring in between $500 billion and $1 trillion a year.

These tariff revenues suggest that the effective average rate companies pay is about 12.5%, Pantheon says—far below the headline numbers, which average over 17% according to some estimates.…”
 
nycfan said:
“… One reason: The real tariffs companies pay are lower than the headline numbers suggest. This is underscored by weaker-than-expected customs and excise taxes collected by the U.S. Treasury.

The U.S. Treasury is on track to collect $34 billion in October, according to a Pantheon Macroeconomics analysis of customs data. If that pace continues, the U.S. would be on track for $400 billion over a full year, short of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August prediction that tariffs could bring in between $500 billion and $1 trillion a year.

These tariff revenues suggest that the effective average rate companies pay is about 12.5%, Pantheon says—far below the headline numbers, which average over 17% according to some estimates.…”
Click to expand...
“…
Even where U.S. companies have to pay full tariffs, they are passing only some of these costs on to consumers. Bank of America estimates that consumers are paying 50%-70% of tariff costs so far, with companies covering the rest. A key reason: Corporate profit margins are much higher today than before the pandemic, making it easier for companies to pay tariffs without raising prices.

Retailers are in a position to afford to pay 30% of the tariff costs and still keep their profit margins at roughly the level they averaged during the 2010s, Pantheon estimates.

Take the car industry. Average auto prices in September were only about 1.1% higher than in March, after adjusting for seasonality, according to JPMorgan, even though car imports from many countries faced tariffs of 15% or more.

That number implies carmakers are paying about 80% of the tariff costs and only passing 20% on to customers, JPMorgan estimates. Car prices are up significantly since 2020, and manufacturers worry that consumers simply can’t afford to pay more. The same postpandemic inflation that boosted prices also padded profit margins, making it easier for carmakers to absorb tariffs today.…”
 
nycfan said:
“…
Even where U.S. companies have to pay full tariffs, they are passing only some of these costs on to consumers. Bank of America estimates that consumers are paying 50%-70% of tariff costs so far, with companies covering the rest. A key reason: Corporate profit margins are much higher today than before the pandemic, making it easier for companies to pay tariffs without raising prices.

Retailers are in a position to afford to pay 30% of the tariff costs and still keep their profit margins at roughly the level they averaged during the 2010s, Pantheon estimates.

Take the car industry. Average auto prices in September were only about 1.1% higher than in March, after adjusting for seasonality, according to JPMorgan, even though car imports from many countries faced tariffs of 15% or more.

That number implies carmakers are paying about 80% of the tariff costs and only passing 20% on to customers, JPMorgan estimates. Car prices are up significantly since 2020, and manufacturers worry that consumers simply can’t afford to pay more. The same postpandemic inflation that boosted prices also padded profit margins, making it easier for carmakers to absorb tariffs today.…”
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This suggests quite a bit of profit-taking was baked into the post-COVID inflationary spiral …
 
“… Pretariff import prices haven’t fallen significantly, Labor Department data shows, suggesting that foreign suppliers generally aren’t lowering their prices to make up for duties.

Aside from inflation, economists worried tariffs would drag down consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of gross domestic product. In April, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since 2022. In the past, drops in confidence have often led to a decline in spending. This year, Americans boosted by a record-high stock market and low unemployment have kept shopping.

Still, economists say it is too early for a victory lap. They believe tariff-related costs and uncertainty have made some companies more reluctant to hire, possibly contributing to a weakening job market. And economists expect companies to eventually pass a bigger share of tariff costs on to consumers. Many companies are raising prices gradually, meaning the tariff impact on inflation could last well into next year.“
 
But are things growing because AI speculation is the new dot.com and rich people keep spending when poor and middle class people are tightening? That’s been my concern about jumping into the market head first. When was the last bear market or the last true correction? According to google machine the last bear market (covid excluded) was the 2007 financial crisis. Thats a crazy long time ago. The Dow has been fueled with gasoline since outside a pandemic and a brief oopsie daisy around “Liberation Day”.
 
nycfan said:
“literally life or death”?
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“used in an exaggerated way to emphasize a statement or description that is not literally true or possible”

www.merriam-webster.com

Definition of LITERALLY

in a literal sense or manner: such as; in a way that uses the ordinary or primary meaning of a term or expression; —used to emphasize the truth and accuracy of a statement or description… See the full definition
www.merriam-webster.com www.merriam-webster.com

Sometimes literally means literally sometimes literally means not literally.
 
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