The "If Trump wins...." Prediction thread: D-Day 1/20/25

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StrangePackage said:
If rent, gas, and groceries were 20% cheaper, Harris would have sailed, "woke polices and the border crisis" and all.

Please continue your in your "thinking" though.
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Keep on telling yourselves Biden didn't cause the border crisis. Please, keep telling yourselves this.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Possible constitutional crisis. I think you would have had enough Romney types to eventually get it right, but you never know.

I don't think the rioters were ever going to do anything but delay the vote.
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Agree. Rioters were a nuisance, but there's just no way that Biden isn't eventually certified.
 
farce© said:
Why? It doesn’t matter since Trump is going to fix it, right?
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Because Yosef’s entire political belief system depends on blaming all his problems and complaints on a man who will be objectively irrelevant in two days. He’s like the drunk guy still dancing at the Christmas party an hour after the band went home.
 
StrangePackage said:
If rent, gas, and groceries were 20% cheaper, Harris would have sailed, "woke polices and the border crisis" and all.

Please continue your in your "thinking" though.
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I don't think that's a certainty. Early exit polling showed that many voters believed that Harris was too focused on social issues, specifically trans rights.
 
ZenMode said:
I don't think that's a certainty. Early exit polling showed that many voters believed that Harris was too focused on social issues, specifically trans rights.
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Wouldn't have had to move the needle much. It's true that the pubs would have lied about it anyway like they have immigration but with those tangibles weakened, the other intangible lies would have been more obvious.
 
lawtig02 said:
By the way, I don’t want to get too worked up about the gay marriage topic because I don’t think Obergefell is at much risk, at least for the next few years, but the Heritage Foundation, and Kevin Roberts in particular, are still very much in favor of reversing it, and they have enormous sway in Trump’s administration. A couple of years ago, they lobbied hard against the Respect for Marriage Act, which would have basically just codified Obergefell so it wouldn’t have been as vulnerable to reversal by a future SCOTUS. So while it may not be at imminent risk, there is a huge and very powerful movement within the current GOP to eliminate the marriage rights Obergefell recognized.
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Here's the thing about gay marriage from the perspective of a cynical gay man...

There is a huge portion of American society who is "for" gay marriage in the sense that they are fine with it. There is about 1/4 of society really willing to fight for it and about 1/4 of society that would do anything to get rid of it.

The Trump/MAGA/Republicans (including Trump himself) who are "for" gay marriage really are just agnostic about it and don't give a shit. Thats fine and I don't begrudge them that position. The issue is that they also don't give enough of a shit to push back even the slightest when the 1/4 of society (who are closer to 1/2 of their constituency) decode ita time to get rid of it. The Trump lite contingent will pay lip service to support but they won't do anything to stop it. The political calculus for Republicans is clear...they lose zero votes by repeating gay marriage but they stand to lose a LOT of them eventually by not acting on it.

Therefore they will. They absolutely will. They cannot hold together their current constituencies without delivering on some overall pretty unpopular policies. Pushing SCOTUS to nullify Ogberfell is one of those, just like Roe.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Here's the thing about gay marriage from the perspective of a cynical gay man...

There is a huge portion of American society who is "for" gay marriage in the sense that they are fine with it. There is about 1/4 of society really willing to fight for it and about 1/4 of society that would do anything to get rid of it.

The Trump/MAGA/Republicans (including Trump himself) who are "for" gay marriage really are just agnostic about it and don't give a shit. Thats fine and I don't begrudge them that position. The issue is that they also don't give enough of a shit to push back even the slightest when the 1/4 of society (who are closer to 1/2 of their constituency) decode ita time to get rid of it. The Trump lite contingent will pay lip service to support but they won't do anything to stop it. The political calculus for Republicans is clear...they lose zero votes by repeating gay marriage but they stand to lose a LOT of them eventually by not acting on it.

Therefore they will. They absolutely will. They cannot hold together their current constituencies without delivering on some overall pretty unpopular policies. Pushing SCOTUS to nullify Ogberfell is one of those, just like Roe.
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Yeah, I agree with all of that, and trust me, I’m very concerned about doing all we can to protect this right going forward. I just can’t help but think the people in Trump’s world will prioritize other things first. I think they got know they got VERY lucky that other issues proved to be more motivating than abortion. This time, they won’t be able to blame those other issues on the Dems.

So I’m not saying there won’t be a lot of talk over the next few years about reversing Obergefell. I’m sure there will. And I’m 100% on your side in this. I just have a feeling this won’t end up being something they get done in the next four years.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Repeating this question for @Yosef since he missed it.
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Flying people into your country never shows up on border crossings either but please, please continue in your thinking. It cost you the Oval, Senate and the House and we thank you for it.
 
farce© said:
And the people who believed this are entirely focused on cultural issues.
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Sure. I think it's common for voters to have a primary concern or focus going into elections. I used to vote Republican because my primary concern was the debt / deficits. That didn't mean I wasn't concerned about social topics, like gay marriage, I was just more concerned about government spending.
 
lawtig02 said:
I’ll take that as a concession. And a non sequitur. Thanks!
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Bill Clinton = inherited a recession from George H.W. Bush. Barack Obama = inherited the "Great Recession" and a total economic shitshow from George W. Bush. Joe Biden = inherited a mess (partially caused by the pandemic) from Donald Trump 1.0. Now reverse that - George W. Bush = inherited a booming economy from Bill Clinton. Donald Trump 1.0 = inherited a booming economy from Barack Obama. Donald Trump 2.0 = inherits a booming economy from Joe Biden. Based on recent history, odds are the next Democratic POTUS will most certainly inherit an economic mess from Dear Leader, and Republicans will then conveniently blame the slow pace of recovery on the Democrats, the voters will develop amnesia about the mess the Democrats inherited and had to fix, and the Republicans will ride back to victory on complaints about what is actually a booming economy.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Bill Clinton = inherited a recession from George H.W. Bush. Barack Obama = inherited the "Great Recession" and a total economic shitshow from George W. Bush. Joe Biden = inherited a mess (partially caused by the pandemic) from Donald Trump 1.0. Now reverse that - George W. Bush = inherited a booming economy from Bill Clinton. Donald Trump 1.0 = inherited a booming economy from Barack Obama. Donald Trump 2.0 = inherits a booming economy from Joe Biden. Based on recent history, odds are the next Democratic POTUS will most certainly inherit an economic mess from Dear Leader, and Republicans will then conveniently blame the slow pace of recovery on the Democrats, the voters will develop amnesia about the mess the Democrats inherited and had to fix, and the Republicans will ride back to victory on complaints about what is actually a booming economy.
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And how do Republicans manage to fuck up booming economies? With deregulation and tax cuts. Over and over. The same playbook Trump is promising with added bonuses of deporting millions of low level laborers and adding the cost of tariffs to a wide swath of goods and services purchased regularly by most Americans.

You’d think they would learn. But the legal bribery created by our system of campaign financing forces them to repeatedly make the same foolish choices. As long as corporations are people and money is speech it will never change.
 
farce© said:
And how do Republicans manage to fuck up booming economies? With deregulation and tax cuts. Over and over. The same playbook Trump is promising with added bonuses of deporting millions of low level laborers and adding the cost of tariffs to a wide swath of goods and services purchased regularly by most Americans.

You’d think they would learn. But the legal bribery created by our system of campaign financing forces them to repeatedly make the same foolish choices. As long as corporations are people and money is speech it will never change.
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Agreed completely - I would just add that at least half the voters of this country also never seem to learn, and just repeat the same pattern over and over that I mentioned above. No matter what the actual historical evidence says, I know plenty of Republican relatives, friends, and coworkers who just automatically, without even thinking, blame Democrats for all economic woes - their own and the nation at large. Doesn't matter what the situation is, Republicans are always good for the economy, Democrats are always bad. It's imprinted on their brain, and nothing (including reality) will shake them from that belief.
 
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