The Weather Thread

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gregh1 said:
Ultimate Raleigh would be some mild flakes, a teeny bit of sleet, then cries from Wake county schools regarding freeze/thaw/freeze road hazards despite bone dry roads which closes school Tuesday/Wednesday
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Not only did I miss the 2 hour delay for Wake Co schools today (and 2 morning hrs near 20 degrees makes zero difference btw), but I really screwed up my prediction regarding the actual precip which led me to NOT buying a sled. Our hood had fantastic sledding last Sunday, and we had to beg, bum, and borrow. And i'm still needy.
 
Earlier this morning the Raleigh office of the National Weather Service said the area from Sanford through Raleigh to Roanoke Rapids could get 10 or more inches of snow.
 
I watched the latest NWS Raleigh video briefing. The gist of it was that the snow will set up in bands and some people will get tons of snow while others will get next to nothing. They have no what of knowing which areas will be in the bands and which won't. The forecaster did say that some people in NC will be very happy and others will be very disappointed.
 
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations
between 9 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
blowing snow. Travel will become impossible and life threatening.
Strong winds could cause tree damage.
 
CarolinaFever said:
expsnowJan31-Feb12026NC.jpg

90thpercentileNCJan31Feb1.jpg

10thpercentilesnowJan31-Feb1NC.jpg
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This is what I had been asking from the NWS for decades.

My brother worked for NWS before retiring recently. I used to complain to him about overestimates of snowfall (not his geographical area) and complained that they needed more statistical forecasts. He said at the time that they were very limited in what they could do with forecasts.

I asked him about this and he said they moved in this direction about 10 years ago.

I, of course, took credit just like the Dr Pepper guy taking credit for the CFB playoffs.

Funny story: He is in west Texas (Lubbock). Back in the '90s some models were predicting snow and others just rain. They debated and he sent out a prediction of no snow. They woke up to a foot of snow on the ground.
 
NWS For 27529
Friday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Saturday
Snow. High near 24. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 14. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Theyve been closed the full week?
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The cities and counties seem to have a single snow plow that they share with neighboring counties and each county has an annual budget of $4 worth of salt. At drop-off this am (Wake Co public school) the drop-off line had to be routed off the normal street into a parking lot because the street was still covered in frozen slush.

The Raleigh DMV offices have been open since 8am Tue, every grocery store has had plowed, dry lots since Monday AM, but a few hundred feet from the school entrance is still iced here on Thurs. That's quite the infrastructure problem.
 
Raleigh area news report:
"They're pre-treating all interstates and primary roads (Thursday), aiming to finish by (Friday) afternoon so we're ahead of the snow," said Kim Deaner, a Public Information Officer with NCDOT.

Although last weekend's ice storm did not cause widespread power outages in the Triangle, road conditions have continued to impact schools with remote learning and delayed starts.

Deaner said that ice is more challenging to clear than snow because it compacts and requires plows to work harder, followed by salt application to aid melting. However, the forecast of light, fluffy snow is expected to make clearing roads easier and faster.

"I know we are expecting to get anywhere from three to six, possibly more inches. I know that forecasts can change and most likely will. Obviously, the more snow we get, the longer it's going to take us, we'll have to make multiple passes. But dealing with this light, fluffy snow is easier," Deaner said.

AND

"Cold arctic air ensures all-snow event" -- hopefully this is something easy to predict.
 
WRAL is calling for 2-5" for most of NC. They believe that we're going to be in a dry slot between two heavy bands, with WNC and ENC getting hammered and central NC being underwhelmed. Hope they are wrong.
 
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