Thom Tillis will not run for reelection in 2026

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farce© said:
The 2026 Ohio senate election is to replace John Husted, the Lt Governor appointed by Mike DeWine to replace JD Vance, and that term expires in 2028.

Vivek is running for governor in 2026, because DeWine is term limited. Trump has already endorsed Vivek. The Democrat he will face is most likely Dr. Amy Acton, who was basically DeWine’s Mandy Cohen during the COVID pandemic. She is well-known and was generally well-regarded in her role.
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Acton came off really well while getting a ton of TV facetime during Covid. It helped that DeWine himself is sane.
 
Paine said:
I came away with serious doubts about his judgment and leadership. He was already running for Congress at the time, and it felt like that campaign completely overshadowed his role as a legislator. There was a lot of blurring between campaign work and official duties, which I found troubling. Not necessarily illegal, but ethically fuzzy in a way that made me uncomfortable.

He also had a pretty dismissive, top-down style. Didn’t offer much guidance, didn’t treat staff with much respect. I was excited to be there, this was the kind of job I thought I wanted, but the experience turned me off completely. It felt like everything was about image, not values. I left after a few months because I couldn’t see any integrity in the work.

Not a scandal, just my honest impression: someone more focused on climbing the ladder than serving the public.
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Thanks for the reply. I asked the question because he's actually the only politician that's done the kind of grass roots connecting in our neighborhood that you seem to want a lot more of. When running for Congress he knocked on every door in our neighborhood personally and chatted at length with anyone who would talk.
 
Paine said:
Totally fair, and I’m glad he made that effort in your neighborhood. From my side, the issue wasn’t necessarily how he campaigned but how he led once the cameras were off. That disconnect is what really stuck with me.
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Its good to have that insight.

Personally I hope Jeff runs. I left a voicemail in his office about 6 weeks ago on a legislation issue and he called me back within a day to talk about it.
 
Paine said:
Totally fair, and I’m glad he made that effort in your neighborhood. From my side, the issue wasn’t necessarily how he campaigned but how he led once the cameras were off. That disconnect is what really stuck with me.
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What's your frame of reference? What you described is probably true of like 400 members of the House. Maybe it was true more for Wiley Nickel. Obviously I wasn't there. But as you've described it, it doesn't sound like a red flag. It sounds like the norm.
 
Serious question for the Pubs here, which I predict none of you will have the courage to answer. When your representatives are up for re-election, they unequivocally toe the MAGA line. But when they're not running for re-election, they're willing to tell the truth. Case in point --


Can you explain to me why Pubs who are running for re-election suck Trump's dick unendingly, while Pubs who are not running for re-election are willing to finally tell the truth?

I'm really looking forward to hearing your well-considered answer to this question.
 
lawtig02 said:
Serious question for the Pubs here, which I predict none of you will have the courage to answer. When your representatives are up for re-election, they unequivocally toe the MAGA line. But when they're not running for re-election, they're willing to tell the truth. Case in point --


Can you explain to me why Pubs who are running for re-election suck Trump's dick unendingly, while Pubs who are not running for re-election are willing to finally tell the truth?

I'm really looking forward to hearing your well-considered answer to this question.
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* rising crescendo of crickets *
 
lawtig02 said:
Serious question for the Pubs here, which I predict none of you will have the courage to answer. When your representatives are up for re-election, they unequivocally toe the MAGA line. But when they're not running for re-election, they're willing to tell the truth. Case in point --


Can you explain to me why Pubs who are running for re-election suck Trump's dick unendingly, while Pubs who are not running for re-election are willing to finally tell the truth?

I'm really looking forward to hearing your well-considered answer to this question.
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“They have an axe to grind.”
 
rodoheel said:
I tend to agree with this Axios article that the race will likely be Cooper vs. Lara Trump, unless one of them surprisingly decides not to run:


I would favor Cooper here unless the political climate is such that Trump is riding high 15 months from now. That seems unlikely - and would buck how things usually go for first-term presidents - but not impossible.
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Cooper would win that by at least 8 points.
 
rodoheel said:
I tend to agree with this Axios article that the race will likely be Cooper vs. Lara Trump, unless one of them surprisingly decides not to run:


I would favor Cooper here unless the political climate is such that Trump is riding high 15 months from now. That seems unlikely - and would buck how things usually go for first-term presidents - but not impossible.
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Well, you’ll have to admit that’s a pretty easy call. Axios is picking some fairly low hanging fruit here.
 
There is a distinct possibility that trump will be sucking wind 15 months from now. trump will be 80+ years old during the next election cycle. Considering his recent disastrous NATO speech, I am not betting on any meaningful campaigning from him. Biden will look like Jimmy Fallon compared to trump in 15 months.
 
Calheel said:
You know something we don’t know? Has Lara Trump been visiting Nude Africa?
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You gave me examples of GOP Pub senators running in difficult environments. One was from 2012 but that wasn't really a difficult environment. One was 2002, which was a positive election for the GOP because they demagogued Iraq. And the final one was from 1990, which is irrelevant. In 1990, California was a red-leaning purple state.

Tillis won by 2 points, IIRC, in 2020. So for Lara Trump to lose by 8, there would have to be a 10 point reversal. I suspect the national environment will be 7-8 points worse, and Lara Trump will be a terrible candidate who will run 2 to 3 points behind Tillis.
 
superrific said:
You gave me examples of GOP Pub senators running in difficult environments. One was from 2012 but that wasn't really a difficult environment. One was 2002, which was a positive election for the GOP because they demagogued Iraq. And the final one was from 1990, which is irrelevant. In 1990, California was a red-leaning purple state.

Tillis won by 2 points, IIRC, in 2020. So for Lara Trump to lose by 8, there would have to be a 10 point reversal. I suspect the national environment will be 7-8 points worse, and Lara Trump will be a terrible candidate who will run 2 to 3 points behind Tillis.
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That seems wildly optimistic.
 
I see 2026 to be shaping up like 2014. In 2014, there was a swing of 7-8 points in the national house race. So I don't think a swing in that amount is unrealistic. In 2010, of course, the swing was like 18 points. House races are hard to get pinpoint data from eyeballing, as races aren't always contested, but I think that gives a pretty good idea of what's possible.

When we take out uncontested districts, I think the GOP had about a point advantage in 2024. NC has been an R+1 state. So even discounting candidate quality, one would expect a 5 or 6 point victory from the partisan swing alone.

I don't know -- maybe he will win by 6. But Coop v Lara would be a Dem lean for sure, if not likely Dem.
 
superrific said:
Tillis won by 2 points, IIRC, in 2020. So for Lara Trump to lose by 8, there would have to be a 10 point reversal. I suspect the national environment will be 7-8 points worse, and Lara Trump will be a terrible candidate who will run 2 to 3 points behind Tillis.
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I think those are pretty optimistic assumptions. It all depends on where public perception of the Trump admin is. I see lots of reasons to expect that Trump could be pretty unpopular 15 months from now, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

I'm also not convinced Lara Trump will run worse than Tillis in a similar situation, though I do think Cooper is a far better candidate for Dems than 2020 Cal Cunningham.

if Trump's popularity is further underwater than it is now in October 2026, then I would expect a Cooper win. If not, it will be close, IMO.
 
rodoheel said:
I think those are pretty optimistic assumptions. It all depends on where public perception of the Trump admin is. I see lots of reasons to expect that Trump could be pretty unpopular 15 months from now, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

I'm also not convinced Lara Trump will run worse than Tillis in a similar situation, though I do think Cooper is a far better candidate for Dems than 2020 Cal Cunningham.

if Trump's popularity is further underwater than it is now in October 2026, then I would expect a Cooper win. If not, it will be close, IMO.
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1. Remember turnout. Trump won in 2024 because he turned out low propensity voters. They are unlikely to turn out again with Trump not on the ballot, and even if they do, are they going to be happy with him after all this bullshit? So even with the same overall popularity, the Dems can expect to pick up three points or so.

2. Do you really think Trump isn't going to plummet further? I mean, I suppose the economy could stay afloat but signs are not good.

3. Trump is training a laser target on rural North Carolina. Between the FEMA bullshit -- and the disappearance of FEMA -- and the Medicaid/SNAP cuts, are people really going to turn out for him? Are they going to get that much mileage from trans a second election in a row? I'm skeptical.
 
heelinhell said:
I think Roy or Jeff Jackson would be a shoo-in no matter who the GQPers ran
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I like Jackson a lot, but the republicans absolutely HATE him. They would skewer him from daylight to dark with negativity. I think that Cooper would have a better shot at winning this time around.
Paine said:
From my side, the issue wasn’t necessarily how he campaigned but how he led once the cameras were off. That disconnect is what really stuck with me.
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That says a lot re: cameras on/off to me. Had you said he was the same type of person 24/7 regardless of what was going on, then it's a totally different story. Thanks for your perspective on this.
 
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