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Thom Tillis will not run for reelection in 2026

superrific said:
You gave me examples of GOP Pub senators running in difficult environments. One was from 2012 but that wasn't really a difficult environment. One was 2002, which was a positive election for the GOP because they demagogued Iraq. And the final one was from 1990, which is irrelevant. In 1990, California was a red-leaning purple state.

Tillis won by 2 points, IIRC, in 2020. So for Lara Trump to lose by 8, there would have to be a 10 point reversal. I suspect the national environment will be 7-8 points worse, and Lara Trump will be a terrible candidate who will run 2 to 3 points behind Tillis.
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That seems wildly optimistic.
 
I see 2026 to be shaping up like 2014. In 2014, there was a swing of 7-8 points in the national house race. So I don't think a swing in that amount is unrealistic. In 2010, of course, the swing was like 18 points. House races are hard to get pinpoint data from eyeballing, as races aren't always contested, but I think that gives a pretty good idea of what's possible.

When we take out uncontested districts, I think the GOP had about a point advantage in 2024. NC has been an R+1 state. So even discounting candidate quality, one would expect a 5 or 6 point victory from the partisan swing alone.

I don't know -- maybe he will win by 6. But Coop v Lara would be a Dem lean for sure, if not likely Dem.
 
superrific said:
Tillis won by 2 points, IIRC, in 2020. So for Lara Trump to lose by 8, there would have to be a 10 point reversal. I suspect the national environment will be 7-8 points worse, and Lara Trump will be a terrible candidate who will run 2 to 3 points behind Tillis.
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I think those are pretty optimistic assumptions. It all depends on where public perception of the Trump admin is. I see lots of reasons to expect that Trump could be pretty unpopular 15 months from now, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

I'm also not convinced Lara Trump will run worse than Tillis in a similar situation, though I do think Cooper is a far better candidate for Dems than 2020 Cal Cunningham.

if Trump's popularity is further underwater than it is now in October 2026, then I would expect a Cooper win. If not, it will be close, IMO.
 
rodoheel said:
I think those are pretty optimistic assumptions. It all depends on where public perception of the Trump admin is. I see lots of reasons to expect that Trump could be pretty unpopular 15 months from now, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

I'm also not convinced Lara Trump will run worse than Tillis in a similar situation, though I do think Cooper is a far better candidate for Dems than 2020 Cal Cunningham.

if Trump's popularity is further underwater than it is now in October 2026, then I would expect a Cooper win. If not, it will be close, IMO.
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1. Remember turnout. Trump won in 2024 because he turned out low propensity voters. They are unlikely to turn out again with Trump not on the ballot, and even if they do, are they going to be happy with him after all this bullshit? So even with the same overall popularity, the Dems can expect to pick up three points or so.

2. Do you really think Trump isn't going to plummet further? I mean, I suppose the economy could stay afloat but signs are not good.

3. Trump is training a laser target on rural North Carolina. Between the FEMA bullshit -- and the disappearance of FEMA -- and the Medicaid/SNAP cuts, are people really going to turn out for him? Are they going to get that much mileage from trans a second election in a row? I'm skeptical.
 
heelinhell said:
I think Roy or Jeff Jackson would be a shoo-in no matter who the GQPers ran
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I like Jackson a lot, but the republicans absolutely HATE him. They would skewer him from daylight to dark with negativity. I think that Cooper would have a better shot at winning this time around.
Paine said:
From my side, the issue wasn’t necessarily how he campaigned but how he led once the cameras were off. That disconnect is what really stuck with me.
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That says a lot re: cameras on/off to me. Had you said he was the same type of person 24/7 regardless of what was going on, then it's a totally different story. Thanks for your perspective on this.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Praise the Lord, does this mean that he's running? I doubt he could win even the GOP primary against real competition (say, Lara Trump) but at least he might damage her or any other GOP nominee for the general campaign. Or so we can hope.
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I don't think Robinson could win a precinct in his own church at this point. He has 0.0% chance of hurting any Republican in the primary.
 
Patb78 said:
Considering the giant KKK sign that used to be just outside of Smithfield I wouldn’t doubt it.
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Those signs were up for years at the city limits, they were finally taken down in 1977 I think. I believe they said something like "The KKK Welcomes You to Smithfield" along with "Help the KKK fight Communism and Integration." Which is just more evidence of the longstanding tendency of conservatives to equate progressive social or economic change they don't like with Communism/Marxism/Socialism etc.
 
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