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Thom Tillis will not run for reelection in 2026

rodoheel said:
I will just say, as to #3: Trump has been screwing poor Americans for a decade now, and they never seem to care. The day may come when it finally happens, but I'm not holding my breath.
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I probably need to finally get that point through my skull.
 
CFordUNC said:
I probably need to finally get that point through my skull.
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I’ve given up. These are people who support an orange makeup wearing, pants shitting, diaper wearing, horrible comb over having,pussy grabbing, racist, gold toilet using guy who has stiffed everyone who’s ever worked for him, ran casino into the ground as a super alpha business guy protector of women, man of the people.
It defies everything and makes me hate the US
 
rodoheel said:
I will just say, as to #3: Trump has been screwing poor Americans for a decade now, and they never seem to care. The day may come when it finally happens, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Honestly think Trump has been screwing poor Americans' grandkids. I don't think poor Americans are really feeling many issues with Trump policies. The tax breaks for rich people have been paid for with debt and poor people haven't really lost many services. There is some grumbling about wealth inequality but it doesn't seem to stick to a billionaire president for some reason. Maybe because Democrats haven't done a particularly good job of addressing it either.

All that may change if the Medicaid cuts come through, but I suspect Congress will fix it when rural hospitals threaten to close like they did last time. The covid response definitely affected a lot of people but I think a lot of poor people give Trump a pass because either they blame Fauci for the shut down or they actually appreciate that Trump came through with the covid vaccine pretty quickly. No idea how people can both praise him for the parts of the covid response they like and not blame him for the parts of the covid response they didn't like even though he was in charge.

I just can't think of anything that poor people care about that Trump has made worse for them. I mean I can think of lots of things but I can't think of anything that they would attribute to Trump.
 
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gtyellowjacket said:
Honestly think Trump has been screwing poor Americans' grandkids. I don't think poor Americans are really feeling many issues with Trump policies. The tax breaks for rich people have been paid for with debt and poor people haven't really lost many services. There is some grumbling about wealth inequality but it doesn't seem to stick to a billionaire president for some reason. Maybe because Democrats haven't done a particularly good job of addressing it either.

All the that may change if the Medicaid cuts come through, but I suspect Congress will fix it when rural hospitals threaten to close like they did last time. The covid response definitely affected a lot of people but I think a lot of poor people give Trump a pass because either they blame Fauci for the shut down or they actually appreciate that Trump came through with the covid vaccine pretty quickly. No idea how people can both praise him and blame him.

I just can't think of anything that poor people care about that Trump has made worse for them. I mean I can think of lots of things but I can't think of anything that they would attribute to Trump.
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Unfortunately I think you are right. Every word of this.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Honestly think Trump has been screwing poor Americans' grandkids. I don't think poor Americans are really feeling many issues with Trump policies. The tax breaks for rich people have been paid for with debt and poor people haven't really lost many services. There is some grumbling about wealth inequality but it doesn't seem to stick to a billionaire president for some reason. Maybe because Democrats haven't done a particularly good job of addressing it either.

All the that may change if the Medicaid cuts come through, but I suspect Congress will fix it when rural hospitals threaten to close like they did last time. The covid response definitely affected a lot of people but I think a lot of poor people give Trump a pass because either they blame Fauci for the shut down or they actually appreciate that Trump came through with the covid vaccine pretty quickly. No idea how people can both praise him for the parts of the covid response they like and not blame him for the parts of the covid response they didn't like even though he was in charge.

I just can't think of anything that poor people care about that Trump has made worse for them. I mean I can think of lots of things but I can't think of anything that they would attribute to Trump.
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Congress ain't fixing shit. Have you seen Congress?

Poor people haven't lost many services? You should probably talk to more poor people.
 
lawtig02 said:
Agree, and this is why Pubs have been strategically undermining education in red America for 40+ years now. If you don't have access to information and critical thinking skills, you'll never be able to put the pieces together.
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Agree 100%

The anti-educational crusade by GOPers has been a strategy to keep their base ignorant and receptive to misinformation and disinformation.
 
nycfan said:
MAGA was making noise about not turning out for Tillis. GOP assumes a Trump lackey nominee will fix that problem. I think it will help but not sure about whether it will drive up MAGA turnout enough or not without Trump himself on the ballot … could Lara Trump fix THAT issue for them?
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Of course we're living in wildly uncertain times, but based on evidence so far (2018 and special elections under Trump) I personally doubt that Lara simply having "Trump" as her last name will help her nearly as much as if Donald himself was running. I doubt they're going to get a higher turnout just because Tillis isn't on the ballot, or a "true" MAGA is on the ballot. And any candidate even more to the right of Tillis, including Lara Trump, risks alienating even more voters than Tillis would, like Mark Robinson or the crazy GOP Public Schools Superintendent candidate did last year. At any rate we'll find who exactly is running soon enough.
 
wmheel1287 said:
The only way for Trump to lose support among rural Americans is for urban Americans to start fawning all over him. His ascendance is and always has been "us vs them" and they don't care how bad the outcome is for rural America so long as it also hurts urban America.
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+100%. A huge amount of rural animosity towards Democrats is based on resentment and envy and jealously. Rural MAGAs know very well how prosperous and booming urban blue areas and college towns in their states are compared to their own rural areas, and they yearn to bring "those people" down several pegs. It's the old story: instead of working to build their communities up and make them a better place to live, they just stew in their resentment and want to bring blue urban areas and universities and college towns down to where they are. I've said this before, but an underrated part of Trumpism is that it's a class war of working-class whites versus the upper middle class professional classes. As long as they can see those people hurting - like all of the DOGE firings for instance, then they are happy.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I just can't think of anything that poor people care about that Trump has made worse for them. I mean I can think of lots of things but I can't think of anything that they would attribute to Trump.
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I mean, yeah, this is exactly the point. I don't know what it would take for working class Trump voters to actually attribute any of their issues (or the failure to solve them) to Trump. Most of them right now probably believe that the debt is falling and that new tariffs are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the coffers, because that's what Trump says is happening 9and his sycophants and media allies are repeating).

trump's economic vision has always been completely incoherent, but that hasn't stopped his supporters from lapping it up. In fact it seems like the incoherence is almost a selling point of the whole thing.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
+100%. A huge amount of rural animosity towards Democrats is based on resentment and envy and jealously. Rural MAGAs know very well how prosperous and booming urban blue areas and college towns in their states are compared to their own rural areas, and they yearn to bring "those people" down several pegs. It's the old story: instead of working to build their communities up and make them a better place to live, they just stew in their resentment and want to bring blue urban areas and universities and college towns down to where they are. I've said this before, but an underrated part of Trumpism is that it's a class war of working-class whites versus the upper middle class professional classes. As long as they can see those people hurting - like all of the DOGE firings for instance, then they are happy.
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There’s a kernel of truth in what you’re both saying, but I think it risks missing the deeper dynamic we’ve discussed before.

If we reduce rural political behavior to pure resentment or envy, we write off millions of people as irredeemable, and we reinforce the very “us vs. them” divide that fuels Trump’s appeal.

Yes, rural communities see how wealth and opportunity are concentrated in urban and university-centered areas. But it’s not just jealousy, it’s a real sense of loss, exclusion, and being looked down on.

These places were once economically central, culturally respected, and politically courted. Now they’re told they’re backward, unproductive, and in the way. That produces anger but also a hunger for meaning, dignity, and recognition.

That’s not a dead end. It’s a political opening. You want to undercut Trumpism? Don’t lean into the culture war. Build something better. Speak to people’s material conditions, their desire to be heard, their need to belong to something that gives them purpose. It’s harder than writing them off, but it’s also the only way forward.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Of course we're living in wildly uncertain times, but based on evidence so far (2018 and special elections under Trump) I personally doubt that Lara simply having "Trump" as her last name will help her nearly as much as if Donald himself was running. I doubt they're going to get a higher turnout just because Tillis isn't on the ballot, or a "true" MAGA is on the ballot. And any candidate even more to the right of Tillis, including Lara Trump, risks alienating even more voters than Tillis would, like Mark Robinson or the crazy GOP Public Schools Superintendent candidate did last year. At any rate we'll find who exactly is running soon enough.
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I know there are a number of variables, but Ted Budd is more to the right of Tillis, or at least fully embraced MAGAism.
 
rodoheel said:
I mean, yeah, this is exactly the point. I don't know what it would take for working class Trump voters to actually attribute any of their issues (or the failure to solve them) to Trump. Most of them right now probably believe that the debt is falling and that new tariffs are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the coffers, because that's what Trump says is happening 9and his sycophants and media allies are repeating).

trump's economic vision has always been completely incoherent, but that hasn't stopped his supporters from lapping it up. In fact it seems like the incoherence is almost a selling point of the whole thing.
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I think they know the debt is being added to but I think a lot of them don't care. Which isn't all that different from the last 50 years or so. Probably longer And maybe that's why. Both parties have been screaming the sky is falling about the debt when they weren't in power for five decades and nothing happens. It will eventually and somebody's going to be caught holding the bag, but trying to lower the deficit with tax increases or service cuts just hasn't been a winning political strategy.
 
Paine said:
There’s a kernel of truth in what you’re both saying, but I think it risks missing the deeper dynamic we’ve discussed before.

If we reduce rural political behavior to pure resentment or envy, we write off millions of people as irredeemable, and we reinforce the very “us vs. them” divide that fuels Trump’s appeal.

Yes, rural communities see how wealth and opportunity are concentrated in urban and university-centered areas. But it’s not just jealousy, it’s a real sense of loss, exclusion, and being looked down on.

These places were once economically central, culturally respected, and politically courted. Now they’re told they’re backward, unproductive, and in the way. That produces anger but also a hunger for meaning, dignity, and recognition.

That’s not a dead end. It’s a political opening. You want to undercut Trumpism? Don’t lean into the culture war. Build something better. Speak to people’s material conditions, their desire to be heard, their need to belong to something that gives them purpose. It’s harder than writing them off, but it’s also the only way forward.
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It's beyond a "kernel", and the truth is that these areas have always resented the larger urban areas in their states. The issue is that as their economic prospects have declined and our society as a whole has included more progressive values and lifestyles these places have become more vocal and even deeper red, certainly since Trump's first election since 2016.

And I didn't say we should write them off, I was simply pointing out the dynamic that rural Trumpism isn't just based on racial or homophobic bigotries, but economic ones as well. And the self-destructive, self-defeating political behavior of these people has been around a good deal longer than Trumpism, as I've seen it my whole life. I fully agree that Democrats need to work to win back these voters, but at this point I'm pessimistic as to whether they can be won back, as their loyalty to Trump is beyond belief, as I have personally seen and heard many times over the past nine years. I'm sure you will say that we have to try and I agree, but I'm not hopeful that many, if any, can be turned. Nonetheless, I'm all for giving it a go.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I know there are a number of variables, but Ted Budd is more to the right of Tillis, or at least fully embraced MAGAism.
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And he was running against a much weaker Democratic opponent than Cooper would be, and in a more favorable campaign season - in 2022 Republicans could (and did) run against Biden, but now they'll have to defend Trump. If Cooper decides not to run that will certainly change any calculations, but I don't think that Tillis dropping out of the race is the big win that Republicans think it will be.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
It's beyond a "kernel", and the truth is that these areas have always resented the larger urban areas in their states. The issue is that as their economic prospects have declined and our society as a whole has included more progressive values and lifestyles these places have become more vocal and even deeper red, certainly since Trump's first election since 2016.

And I didn't say we should write them off, I was simply pointing out the dynamic that rural Trumpism isn't just based on racial or homophobic bigotries, but economic ones as well. And the self-destructive, self-defeating political behavior of these people has been around a good deal longer than Trumpism, as I've seen it my whole life. I fully agree that Democrats need to work to win back these voters, but at this point I'm pessimistic as to whether they can be won back, as their loyalty to Trump is beyond belief, as I have personally seen and heard many times over the past nine years. I'm sure you will say that we have to try and I agree, but I'm not hopeful that many, if any, can be turned. Nonetheless, I'm all for giving it a go.
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I understand the pessimism, but if we agree we need to win these voters back, then we have to stop treating them like dumb rubes, even in private. That attitude shows up in our policies, our messaging, and the kinds of candidates we back. Voters feel it.

You say you’re not writing them off, but posture matters. If we talk about voters as permanently resentful, irrational, or unreachable, that is writing them off. Even if we don’t say the words, it shapes how we act, what we prioritize, and who we think is worth organizing.

Trumpism feeds on feeling looked down on. If we want to break that cycle, we can’t keep reinforcing it. That starts with changing our posture, not just our talking points.
 
Paine said:
There’s a kernel of truth in what you’re both saying, but I think it risks missing the deeper dynamic we’ve discussed before.

If we reduce rural political behavior to pure resentment or envy, we write off millions of people as irredeemable, and we reinforce the very “us vs. them” divide that fuels Trump’s appeal.

Yes, rural communities see how wealth and opportunity are concentrated in urban and university-centered areas. But it’s not just jealousy, it’s a real sense of loss, exclusion, and being looked down on.

These places were once economically central, culturally respected, and politically courted. Now they’re told they’re backward, unproductive, and in the way. That produces anger but also a hunger for meaning, dignity, and recognition.

That’s not a dead end. It’s a political opening. You want to undercut Trumpism? Don’t lean into the culture war. Build something better. Speak to people’s material conditions, their desire to be heard, their need to belong to something that gives them purpose. It’s harder than writing them off, but it’s also the only way forward.
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I agree with you about the problems with the us vs. them dynamic, but at some point any genuine message to rural and small communities has to account for the truth:
  • Well-paying jobs in the agricultural sector are going to continue to fall, not rise, due to automation and competition
  • We are never again going to have the volume of well-paying manufacturing jobs we did in the 50s-80s, due to automation and competition
  • You cannot force everyone else in the country to want to live the lifestyle you did 30, 40, or 50 years ago, so many rural areas are going to continue to bleed population without modernization/reform that make those places look very different than they did when people were growing up while making them more attractive to younger people
The messaging rural Americans have most frequently responded to is messaging that lies to them about one or all of those three things. They want to be told that they can have 1950s jobs at 1950s wages and that we can just flick a switch and return good employers and jobs to these communities. In reality the way forward is with robust education and training for modern industries and careers, combined with New Deal-esque public works projects to build a better country for us all . But they don't want that. They have consistently rejected and voted against that. I know you are confident in there being a lane to craft working-class messaging that speaks to working-class Americans about a better future, but rural Americans with their love of "rugged individualism" have been consistently resistant to things like green energy, social safety net programs, socialized health care, or anything that could possibly be framed as for the collective good rather than individual free choice.

I will also add that there absolutely has always been a level of snootiness from urban/educated people towards "backward" rural communities. That dynamic has been around about as long as the USA has, and it isn't a uniquely American dynamic. But speaking on behalf of educated and urban Americans, I am really tired of being told (not by you, to be clear) that this urban/rural divide is mostly, if not entirely, the fault of urban, educated Americans and that we are the ones who bear most, if not all, if the burden to fix it. When in fact there is just as much ignorance among rural communities about the lives, careers, and communities of urban, educated Americans as the other way around. Trump's populist messaging for the last decade for the last decade has consistently featured as an element that cities are marxist hellscapes of hedonism and vice and the people who live there are corrupt, unpatriotic, unamerican, and flat-out enemies of America, and his rural supporters have lapped up every bit of that. A lot of that can be attributed to the fire hose of media misinformation that we talk about all the time, but at some point rural Americans are responsible for their own prejudices and ignorance. How do we fix that?
 
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