So overall we are currently spending $7Trillion while bringing in $5Trillion, a $2T shortfall. Current deficit is around $35T, so we are on a path right now to be more than 20% over. Add in Trump brilliance and it could be 30%.
2023 GDP was $27T. I've always heard that a useful yardstick is that we don't want the overall national debt to exceed annual GDP, so we are 30% in the red.
That means for the next generation we will have to:
- address entitlements (give less money to old people, or maintain a 3 to 1 employee ratio, which likely means increased immigration)
- stay out of wars
- grow like hell, with all the attendant concerns of energy, immigration, regulation and the perils of a service economy
- keep interest rates low (which has caused all sorts of mischief this century).
IMO, these are unavoidable policy realities regardless of who is in power over the next 30 years.