He has more support now than he did in 2016 or 2020, so I don’t think he’s relying on that core of support exclusively anymore. His winning coalition in 2024 would be much different from his coalition in 2016. Trust polling or don’t, but every poll shows softening support for Dems among working class people of all races. I think there are several aspects that go into that, but Kamala having to defend higher grocery prices and rent doesn’t help her.
A Dem governor (Walz or Whitmer would’ve been my first choices if it was up to me) would get a pass on higher prices from low info voters.
Just my opinion, but I think it’s supported by the publicly available data.