U.S. Budget & OBBB | OCT 1 - Gov’t Shutdown Begins

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She’s just ignoring all the details except the (unpopular) budget cuts that are more than offset by reductions in revenue that on a net basis increase the debt by about $2.7 trillion more over the next 10 years than was already projected if they did nothing at all …
 
I guess everyone should able to afford 30 dolls for little Suzie now that the Big Beautiful Bill has passed?
 


They also delivered a gut punch to wind and solar farm development.
 
So how does the no tax on overtime work? Some of his supporters think it means no Federal Income Tax at all on overtime. I suspect there is going to be widespread gaming the system going on.
 
So how does the no tax on overtime work? Some of his supporters think it means no Federal Income Tax at all on overtime. I suspect there is going to be widespread gaming the system going on.

“… The House and Senate bills include some limits on tip exemptions that would make it more difficult for employers to try to manipulate the system — for example, making it harder to shift hourly or salaried workers to tip-based compensation. It would also exclude higher-income earners making more than $160,000, and it would limit the amount of tips that could be deducted from a yearly tax return to $25,000.

“I think the worst-case scenario from a budgetary cost perspective has been averted, at least on that provision, by limiting it to traditionally tipped industries and excluding highly compensated employees,” said Alex Muresianu, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, a group that advocates for tax policy reforms. “This limits the potential of behavioral change to introduce tipping to more occupations, and that could have really blown the budget.”

… Under the current legislation, the tax breaks would expire in 2028 — which would create political pressure to extend them amid that year's presidential election. The impact on the deficit could go even higher if the exemptions were extended beyond then, which would be likely given the political challenge of raising taxes on workers who had been benefiting from the cuts, said Brett Loper, executive vice president of policy for the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which advocates for reducing the national debt….”

 
Whatever tax cuts for the non-wealthy actually come through with this bill will almost certainly be more than outweighed by price increases on many products thanks to Trump's trade wars. Add in rising healthcare costs and reduced benefits - for example, next year's healthcare plan for NC state employees, including teachers, will have substantial increases in monthly payments with reduced overall benefits such as more expensive prices for many health services, including prescription drugs - and whatever dubious benefits workers get from a small tax cut will be wiped out very quickly.
 
I could not give you a %, but there's definitely risk of total economic collapse as the bond market and foreign investors look at an unreliable Dollar and POTUS.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/us-deficit-bond-market-economy-619614b3

We're in the worst place since 2008. Without a sound reason.

If the MAGA/TRUMP goal is a Russia like Oligarchy where only the BB and POTUS are rich and the income gap is a chasm, then mission nearly accomplished.
Well yeah, that is th egoal.
 
So how does the no tax on overtime work? Some of his supporters think it means no Federal Income Tax at all on overtime. I suspect there is going to be widespread gaming the system going on.
Even aside from the mechanics, what's the goal from a policy perspective? You're incentivizing fewer people working more hours - new hiring will slow down. You're incentivizing employers to lower base wages now that employees can take home more for the same work. IMO it's just bad policy. If we want to put more dollars in the pockets of hourly workers, let's just lower the bottom marginal rates.
 
These people are going to be surprised when their overtime pay still has FICA and state income tax deductions applied.
 
Even aside from the mechanics, what's the goal from a policy perspective?
LOL. It was something he thought up on the fly. It was first no tax on tips, but then someone told him that wasn't going to help him in the Rust Belt so he included no tax on overtime. It was all spur of the moment stupidity.

There is no goal.
 
LOL. It was something he thought up on the fly. It was first no tax on tips, but then someone told him that wasn't going to help him in the Rust Belt so he included no tax on overtime. It was all spur of the moment stupidity.

There is no goal.
I mean, we all get this. It's just a terrible way to legislate. I hope even the MAGA on here can acknowledge that (though I understand saying so explicitly might cost them their spot in line to kiss the king's feet).
 
Even aside from the mechanics, what's the goal from a policy perspective? You're incentivizing fewer people working more hours - new hiring will slow down. You're incentivizing employers to lower base wages now that employees can take home more for the same work. IMO it's just bad policy. If we want to put more dollars in the pockets of hourly workers, let's just lower the bottom marginal rates.

Wow, a really good talking point about employer incentives.

Somewhat related to your point, my Heat and Air friend who employs many younger folks in small town America told me after the election how popular this idea was with his employees. And the reason we talked about it was because he had trouble getting folks to take overtime because the extra effort didn't show up in their paychecks. I suspect the real reason it doesn't show up is the Earned Income Tax Credit phase out. Maybe not, because he does pay pretty well.
 

The Largest Upward Transfer of Wealth in American History​

House Republicans voted to advance a bill that would offer lavish tax cuts for the rich while slashing benefits for the poor.


*behind a paywall :/

The wealth transfer “is not a side effect of the legislation, but its central purpose. The “big, beautiful bill” would pair huge cuts to food assistance and health insurance for low-income Americans with even larger tax cuts for affluent ones.” 🤬

The Pubs are pissing on the less fortunate and telling them to be happy, it’s trickling down as expected.
 
And the reason we talked about it was because he had trouble getting folks to take overtime because the extra effort didn't show up in their paychecks. I suspect the real reason it doesn't show up is the Earned Income Tax Credit phase out. Maybe not, because he does pay pretty well.
Interesting, and your instinct seems sound here. Though the EITC phaseout would show up on their tax return, not their paycheck. Maybe just semantics. But there's no reason 1.5 pay wouldn't be ~50% more beneficial unless the extra income pushes people out of other benefits.
 
Here is my plea, fwiw.

The million person march on Washington, DC needs to happen NOW. While the budget is being debated.

The money is on the table and the billionaires are taking it.

At the expense of our elderly, sick, disabled, working class, and middle class.

The good jobs of the future in technology are moving to China. Yesterday was a great day for China as R&D investment was slashed by the House bill. Couldn’t Jeffries find 1-2 more votes?? The ROI on science investment is far higher than any other investment by Congress. 60% of the jobs created after WWII have emanated from Federal R&D spending to NIH, NASA, NSF, small business, DOE, DOD, etc. We’re killing pump that primes innovation and job creation!!!


Trump’s deficit spending (25% of the nation’s total debt during Trump 1.0) will bankrupt America, just like during COVID and most of Trump's “business” ventures until he leveraged political office for grifting. Trillions are being lost.


And, YES, I have a PLAN that will shrink the deficit, create jobs, and lead to PROSPERITY again.

1. Investment in R&D: Increase NIH, NASA, NSF, DOE investment by 50%. Migrate 50% of INTERNAL NIH lab support to academia and small business/startups/pipeline. My laboratory has made new discoveries regarding spaceflight that are being translated into new therapeutics for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, aging, and metabolic disease.

2. Double taxes on hedge fund managers, crypto. Market manipulation, insider trading, emoluments, grifting need to stop. We also need to balance the budget and making hedge fund managers who win whether the market goes up or down need to pay their fair share.

3. Cut the tax breaks for the top 1% and billionaires on the 2017 tax bill by 50% Have a minimum tax for billionaires.

4. Restore PERSONAL EXEMPTIONS! My middle class taxes INCREASED 30%+ (I have the receipts!) due to the 2017 tax bill so Katy Perry could go to space!

5. Freeze the Standard Deduction (savings). The 2017 tax code punishes home ownership for the working and middle class and rewards rental property and real estate owners in red states (ex. Florida). I wonder who that could be?

6. Restore tax exemptions for truckers and our essential workers! Remove taxes on Social Security benefits. We're taxing a tax!

7. Restore the IG for the Pentagon and flush out 10% savings while modernizing our military. Ya’ll need to talk to Bob Gates and former generals, admirals. Support NATO and Ukraine!

8. Propose saving SS, Medicare, ACA, Medicaid through consolidation of Medicare, Medicaid and ACA into one plan with multiple layers for age, family situation, etc. This will save trillions over 10 years. Include a PUBLIC OPTION that competes with private sector insurance.

9. To create jobs and revolutionize energy - we need a Hu(man) on the Moon project to develop and utilize for power plants FUSION technology. Powerful magnets that use SUPERCONDUCTOR technology have been developed that will safely superheat hydrogen to make helium and use the power of the Sun to provide energy to the people. A massive wave of high tech American jobs will be created.

10. Codify the Congress’ constitutional responsibility to set tariffs and halt the Insanity!


Let’s GO! We can’t wait for the next election. There may not be another one given the nation’s rapid slide into FASCISM.
 
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