U.S. Budget & OBBB | OCT 1 - Gov’t Shutdown Begins

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Mulberry Heel said:
I remember the Reagan era very well and I remember how popular he was, but I also don't recall Republican politicians saying such easily disproven lies on television and to print reporters as the one quoted above. And the reason was because in those days we still had a legacy media (including a still formidable print media) that would generally call them out for such things, and so they were usually more careful about what they said on television and to the media than today. I'm not saying that it started with Trump, but that with Trump's election in 2016 they don't even hesitate to say things that are very, very easily disproven and ridiculously over the top. It's definitely far easier today to lie to the national media and get away with it because the media landscape has totally changed. And as someone who was surrounded by GOP, Reagan-voting relatives and classmates and neighbors, I don't think Reagan had the same hold on his followers that Trump does. The worship of Trump by his base is frankly beyond anything that I've seen for a politician in my lifetime - if he told them to drink poisoned koolaid and it wouldn't hurt them, I think many of them actually would believe him and drink it.

ETA: And I fully agree with you regarding LBJ being wrong about losing most white voters for just a generation - it's clearly gone on for far longer. And ironically it's for the reason that LBJ also once noted - that if you give working-class and poor whites someone to look down on and feel superior to, they'll open their pockets for you.
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I know you know and remember the Reagan Era.
  • The tax cuts will increase revenue was the Reagan Era Big Lie. This has been the GOP mantra since Reagan. This lie was repeated CONSTANTLY throughout the Reagan Era. They all knew “tax cuts = more revenue” was a lie. David Stockman exposed that lie early - didn’t stop Jesse or Phil Gramm or Trent Lott or Jack Kemp. Not once have GOP tax cuts increased tax revenue.
  • The entire Iran-Contra scandal. Oliver North became a right-wing cult-figure. Reagan and his entire Administration lied through their teeth about Iran-Contra. Oh, wait, I’m mistaken……Reagan didn’t lie….Reagan added “I don’t recall/remember” to American political lexicon……Reagan added, “I’m POTUS and I don’t have a fucking clue what I was doing,” to American politics……AND THE GOP ATE THAT SHIT UP!
Cult? Not a cult?

They’ve been slurping the same shit for DECADES.
 
Zoo_View said:
I know you know and remember the Reagan Era.
  • The tax cuts will increase revenue was the Reagan Era Big Lie. This has been the GOP mantra since Reagan. This lie was repeated CONSTANTLY throughout the Reagan Era. They all knew “tax cuts = more revenue” was a lie. David Stockman exposed that lie early - didn’t stop Jesse or Phil Gramm or Trent Lott or Jack Kemp. Not once have GOP tax cuts increased tax revenue.
  • The entire Iran-Contra scandal. Oliver North became a right-wing cult-figure. Reagan and his entire Administration lied through their teeth about Iran-Contra. Oh, wait, I’m mistaken……Reagan didn’t lie….Reagan added “I don’t recall/remember” to American political lexicon……Reagan added, “I’m POTUS and I don’t have a fucking clue what I was doing,” to American politics……AND THE GOP ATE THAT SHIT UP!
Cult? Not a cult?

They’ve been slurping the same shit for DECADES.
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I'm not saying that it started with Trump. What I am saying - and stand by - is that under Trump it has a reached a whole new level of dishonesty at least partly because the media landscape has drastically changed. No, it wasn't as much of a cult of personality then as it is now with Trump. At least I certainly don't remember pretty much every other house in my old hometown flying Reagan flags and signs and decorating their houses for all eight years of his presidency and even replacing them with bright new signs and flags when the old ones got frayed and faded, as many of them have every year since 2016 with Trump. I'm not defending Reagan at all (or Nixon or Bush I & II, for that matter) and of course GOP tax cuts never work for the middle and lower classes, but what we're seeing with Trump is beyond anything I remember with previous GOP presidents.

If Trump had done Iran/Contra he would have bragged about it, and modern right-wing media would have defended what happened - it wouldn't even have been portrayed as a scandal to start with, and any congressional hearings would have been given almost no publicity, unlike the hearings in the 80s. If Nixon were president today and Watergate happened, there is no doubt in my mind that Nixon would never have resigned from office, or been forced to. Fox News would have rallied the GOP base and he would have stayed in office. Even Reagan didn't gut the government the way Trump has in just the first few months of his second term, and much of that, I think, was because they did fear a media backlash back then in ways that they simply don't today.
 
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U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street​


KEY POINTS
  • The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” includes the most sweeping changes to the tax treatment of foreign capital in the U.S. in decades under a provision known as Section 899.
  • Section 899 will hit entities from so-called “discriminatory foreign countries” that impose levies that disproportionately affect U.S. companies.
  • Under the new tax bill, the U.S. would hit investors from such countries by increasing taxes on U.S. income by 5 percentage points each year, potentially taking the tax rate up to 20%.

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www.cnbc.com
 
IMG_7117.jpeg

CBO assumes 1.8% per year, not 1.8% over 10 years. There is no way the U.S. averages 3-5x that over ten years, though it is not unheard of to have a big jump (or in recession, drop) of 6% or more in a single year, but that would not be sustainable. The Trump “minimum expected growth” of 3% per year for a decade is not impossible but highly unlikely based on historical GDP.
 
nycfan said:
IMG_7117.jpeg

CBO assumes 1.8% per year, not 1.8% over 10 years. There is no way the U.S. averages 3-5x that over ten years, though it is not unheard of to have a big jump (or in recession, drop) of 6% or more in a single year, but that would not be sustainable. The Trump “minimum expected growth” of 3% per year for a decade is not impossible but highly unlikely based on historical GDP.
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It's more than highly unlikely. I love the idea that math is supposed to be patriotic.

Hey MAGA -- if you haven't noticed that your guy is opposed to all learning, check it out. You know where truth is required to bend to patriotism? Totalitarian countries like North Korea. Or Islamic fundamentalist countries. That's what you guys want. Patriotic math, not true math.
 
DiehardHeelFan said:

U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street​


KEY POINTS
  • The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” includes the most sweeping changes to the tax treatment of foreign capital in the U.S. in decades under a provision known as Section 899.
  • Section 899 will hit entities from so-called “discriminatory foreign countries” that impose levies that disproportionately affect U.S. companies.
  • Under the new tax bill, the U.S. would hit investors from such countries by increasing taxes on U.S. income by 5 percentage points each year, potentially taking the tax rate up to 20%.

Loading…

www.cnbc.com
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I know this is shocking . . . but the law is quite likely unconstitutional. Disparate treatment based on national origin requires strict scrutiny, and there is no way that this law would satisfy strict scrutiny. Expect another legal challenge; expect Trump to lose; and then expect the Supreme Court to stay. But long term the statute will not be sustained because it's illegal.
 
DiehardHeelFan said:

U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street​


KEY POINTS
  • The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” includes the most sweeping changes to the tax treatment of foreign capital in the U.S. in decades under a provision known as Section 899.
  • Section 899 will hit entities from so-called “discriminatory foreign countries” that impose levies that disproportionately affect U.S. companies.
  • Under the new tax bill, the U.S. would hit investors from such countries by increasing taxes on U.S. income by 5 percentage points each year, potentially taking the tax rate up to 20%.

Loading…

www.cnbc.com
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Wait…what? This could have dire consequences on US capital markets.
 
nycfan said:
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all they do is lie, lmao.

they had this young, maga dipshit congressman from texas named brandon gill on CNN last night. kaitlan collins repeatedly called out and eviscerated his weak sauce lies and he just kept parroting the same nonsense. it was comical.
 


“… The final bill must comply with the Senate’s Byrd Rule, named for the late West Virginia Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd, which prevents lawmakers from using the special budget reconciliation process to advance unrelated policies. Reconciliation allows Republicans to pass President Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill with just 51 votes—rather than the 60 usually required in the Senate—but only if their provisions all have a meaningful fiscal impact that aren’t “merely incidental.”

…
The Senate process is designed to scrub the GOP bill of items seen as having little impact on fiscal matters. In this “Byrd bath,” any senator can raise a point of order to challenge a provision in the bill. The nonpartisan Senate parliamentarian will then make the final call, which Republicans are expected to abide by—though in today’s political environment, nothing is certain.

“During reconciliation, the minority party wants to cause as much trouble for the majority party, whenever and wherever possible,” said Zach Moller, director of the economic program at center-left think tank Third Way. “That is the price of reconciliation.”…”
 
I have a tip on some Medicaid fraud. Go get 'em Mike and Russ

www.rickscott.senate.gov

U.S. Senator Rick Scott

www.rickscott.senate.gov www.rickscott.senate.gov

"Columbia later merged with another corporation to form Columbia/HCA, which eventually became the nation's largest for-profit health care company. Scott was pressured to resign as chief executive of Columbia/HCA in 1997. During his tenure as chief executive, the company defrauded Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal programs. The U.S. Department of Justice won 14 felony convictions against the company, which was fined $1.7 billion in what was at the time the largest healthcare fraud settlement in U.S. history" (from wiki)
 
Medicaid spending has also increased …

IMG_7152.jpeg

It was up to about $890 Billion in 2023, though the Federal government is only responsible for about 69% of total Medicaid spending (states cover the rest).
 
nycfan said:
Medicaid spending has also increased …

IMG_7152.jpeg

It was up to about $890 Billion in 2023, though the Federal government is only responsible for about 69% of total Medicaid spending (states cover the rest).
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This chart would make any reasonable person understand we have to have changes. This level of increase isn’t sustainable.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Interest is a big chunk for sure based on that but even half of the increase.
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yeah, that’s why I also referenced inflation (a significant bump in Social Security payments a statutory increases for inflation, for example). Mandatory spending (interest, social security, Medicare, Medicaid a few others) account for most of the spending and most of the increases.
 
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