Ukraine War | Zelensky seeks NATO guarantees for unoccupied Ukraine for peace

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Enigma94 said:
By the same token we've been hearing since the war started that it would only last a matter of days, then a matter of weeks/months, and over the past several months we've been hearing it's all over but the shouting. Ukraine has proven to be more resilient than the experts have predicted all along the way.
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Spot on and in the meanwhile, we've tested a bunch of new technology while bleeding their officer corp white without too many US lives lost.
 
I look for Ukraine to be willing to enter negotiations and then just sit at the table for several months. While Russia may be able to break Ukraine's lines here and there, its not clear that Russia would be able to gather enough TRAINED forces and equipment to exploit any breakthrough. Plus it will take till next summer for the weather to clear up to allow for a breakthrough to be exploited.

But the big concern might be if Trump were able to lift sanctions on Russia. Perhaps the EU would refuse. Not sure how all that would work. But if Putin is able increase oil revenue or get access to his frozen money, then that would be a big problem and force Ukraine to give in.

But, there's always a chance that Trump's Saudi friends might prefer for the war to go on to limit Russia's oil exports.
 
Enigma94 said:
Because Biden is throwing everything he can at the war on his way out the door. It's a shame because Russia's economy is in shambles. I'm not sure they could last more than another year with the losses they are accruing. But without US support it may not matter.
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As long as the oil flows they can survive. I would be all in on continuing full support if it would only last 1 more year.
 
Callatoroy said:
As long as the oil flows they can survive. I would be all in on continuing full support if it would only last 1 more year.
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I can’t see the reasoning for putting a time limit on our support. Countering Russia and China are the two primary reasons we have a military. We can neuter one of those geopolitical foes for a fraction of our annual defense budget and you only want to do that for one year. The only reason I can come up with for ending support would be the toll it’s taking on the people of Ukraine, but that’s solely Putin’s fault and ultimately Ukraine wants to fight. Not to mention there are consequences to Russia gaining control of Ukraine for future generations.
 
Batt Boy said:
Russia's economy isn't as bad off as you think. Can't measure it in Western terms. Sure, it has eroded sharply since 2022 but not because of the war but because it's administered by idiots, like all the Russian efforts. Consider their only aircraft carrier. Imagine that, they only have one! Anyway, it's been in dry dock for 5 of so years, sunk once, two fires and a collapsed crane and they even shipped off the crew to fight and die in Bakhumt. Idiots. But they endure. Russia doesn't export only oil and gas, but also gold, weapons, coal, rare earths/ precious metals and wealth. . With all those natural resources, it realy takes an unprecedented level of idiocy to really hurt them. They need USD and EUR just as everyone, but hey can live without if they have to. North Koreans, with much less have done so for a long time.
How Russia will do after the war will is an entirely different question but they can hold off for decades. Ukraine can't.
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"Russia’s annual inflation rate came in at 8.5% in October, well above the central bank’s target of 4%. It prompted the bank last month to raise interest rates to 21% — their highest level in more than 20 years — and a further hike is expected in December."


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“Russia cannot continue waging the current war beyond late 2025, when it will begin running out of key weapons systems,” they wrote.

But the Kremlin’s mobilization of the economy to support the war has also left it vulnerable to an eventual end to hostilities.

DeVore and Mertens noted that paring back massive defense spending will trigger an economic downturn and leave many without work.

“The experience of other societies—in particular, European states after World War I—suggests that hordes of demobilized soldiers and jobless defense workers are a recipe for political instability,” they warned."
 
BillOfRights said:

"Russia’s annual inflation rate came in at 8.5% in October, well above the central bank’s target of 4%. It prompted the bank last month to raise interest rates to 21% — their highest level in more than 20 years — and a further hike is expected in December."


"
“Russia cannot continue waging the current war beyond late 2025, when it will begin running out of key weapons systems,” they wrote.

But the Kremlin’s mobilization of the economy to support the war has also left it vulnerable to an eventual end to hostilities.

DeVore and Mertens noted that paring back massive defense spending will trigger an economic downturn and leave many without work.

“The experience of other societies—in particular, European states after World War I—suggests that hordes of demobilized soldiers and jobless defense workers are a recipe for political instability,” they warned."
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Iirc, they didn't handle the withdrawal from Afghanistan very well.

That, along with their alcoholism and depression rate and ,at one time, a declining birthrate (Is this still true? Been a while since I paid this any attention) is a large part of why Putin has reached a rapprochement with the ROC, hoping the Orthodox influence would mitigate those problems.
 
finesse said:
Iirc, they didn't handle the withdrawal from Afghanistan very well.

That, along with their alcoholism and depression rate and ,at one time, a declining birthrate (Is this still true? Been a while since I paid this any attention) is a large part of why Putin has reached a rapprochement with the ROC, hoping the Orthodox influence would mitigate those problems.
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Russia’s birth rate dropped to a 25-year low in 2024. Russia has 1.4 births per woman. That’s at Japanese levels.
 
That would honestly be the outcome most likely to produce a lasting peace.

But because Putin has no intention of a lasting peace it will be rejected.
 


Some MAGA seems to want to avoid a resolution of any sort of the Ukraine invasion before Trump is inaugurated for some reason.
 
I don't want Ukraine in NATO, to be honest. It will just give Trump and European right-wing parties even more incentive to break it. I have no opinion about the military issues, but politically we have to keep Ukraine away.

And while this sounds harsh to Ukrainians, perhaps, I'd ask what value would there be in joining an alliance that will not defend them?
 
superrific said:
I don't want Ukraine in NATO, to be honest. It will just give Trump and European right-wing parties even more incentive to break it. I have no opinion about the military issues, but politically we have to keep Ukraine away.

And while this sounds harsh to Ukrainians, perhaps, I'd ask what value would there be in joining an alliance that will not defend them?
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You think they need more reasons?
 
So the Trump plan, or his envoy's plan is to make both sides negotiate while there's an immediate ceasefire. And if Ukraine doesn't negotiate then U.S. will cease aid. That implies that Congress will approve additional U. S. aid for Ukraine that Trump could withhold if Ukraine doesn't negotiate.

If I were Ukraine, I would say "show me the aid" or no. Would be willing to sit down and go thru the motions, but I doubt Ukraine would stop fighting and get no aid while the conflict is frozen.
 
From the link above:

www.ft.com

Vladimir Putin to reject Donald Trump’s opening peace offer, says Russian tycoon

Konstantin Malofeyev says Russian president to engage in talks only if they include broader conflicts
www.ft.com www.ft.com

“…“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and then tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it. That’d be the whole negotiation,” Malofeyev said in an interview at a luxury resort in Dubai.

“For the talks to be constructive, we need to talk not about the future of Ukraine, but the future of Europe and the world.”

Malofeyev said Trump could only end the conflict if he reversed Washington’s decision on the use of advanced long-range weapons and removed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from office, then agreed to meet Putin and “discuss all the issues of the global order at the highest level”.

He warned that “the world is on the brink of nuclear war” after Kyiv fired US- and UK-made long-range missiles into Russian territory, and Putin responded by firing an experimental nuclear-capable ballistic missile at Ukraine.

Just days before his nomination, Kellogg told Fox News that Washington should call Russia’s bluff in response to Putin’s recent ballistic missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro and threats of further escalation. “[Putin] used [the nuclear-capable missile] for psychological reasons,” Kellogg said.

… Rather than “back off”, he added, the US and western allies should “lean in, because Putin will not start a nuclear war in Europe”.

Malofeyev, however, argued that if the US did not agree to roll back its support for Ukraine, Russia could fire a tactical nuclear weapon.

“There will be a radiation zone nobody will ever go into in our lifetime,” he said. “And the war will be over.”

He said Moscow would only see it as a lasting condition for peace if Trump was willing to discuss other global flashpoints including the wars in the Middle East and Russia’s burgeoning alliance with China — and a US acknowledgment that Ukraine is part of the Kremlin’s core interests.

“We want a long-term peace — some sort of general agreement about the global order,” Malofeyev said.

“Trump wants to go down in history, he’ll be 80 soon, he’s a grandfather. Putin’s not 50 any more either. It’ll be the legacy they both leave us.” …”
 
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Now is the time for us to see how much of a Putin sycophant Trump is. The only way to make Russia negotiate is to up the ante. They have done so by threatening Nuclear war. How many F35's do we need to sell to Ukraine?
 
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