Ukraine War | Zelensky seeks NATO guarantees for unoccupied Ukraine for peace

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Russia is on the verge of becoming a failed state. Their economy is in the tank and they're printing money to fund this war.

The Ukranian offensive has them in a real jam. The only trained troops they have are in active operations in Ukraine now. They can pull them at the risk of not only stopping some progress in Ukraine, but setting up situations where Ukraine will push them back.

Russia needs more troops, but to do so would be taking folks that are making the remnants of the economy work. So they could have more soldiers which they wouldn't be able to equip or feed, or they can continue to have a trickle of productivity to sustain the economy. It would also mean more untrained troops which are of limited value. They're good for cannon fodder and digging trenches.

Russia is using refurbished military equipment from the 50's and whatever crap they get from North Korea. The shorter range artillery now in use is in range of Ukrainian drones and that equipment is getting torched every day.

Meanwhile Ukraine has some semblance of air superiority in the Kursk region. They're able to launch glide bombs to great effect against Russian positions.

As long as the west can keep supplying ammo, Russia really doesn't have a chance to remove Ukraine from Kursk.

The upcoming US election is probably going to decide the outcome of this war.
 
ronjon said:
Russia is on the verge of becoming a failed state. Their economy is in the tank and they're printing money to fund this war.

The Ukranian offensive has them in a real jam. The only trained troops they have are in active operations in Ukraine now. They can pull them at the risk of not only stopping some progress in Ukraine, but setting up situations where Ukraine will push them back.

Russia needs more troops, but to do so would be taking folks that are making the remnants of the economy work. So they could have more soldiers which they wouldn't be able to equip or feed, or they can continue to have a trickle of productivity to sustain the economy. It would also mean more untrained troops which are of limited value. They're good for cannon fodder and digging trenches.

Russia is using refurbished military equipment from the 50's and whatever crap they get from North Korea. The shorter range artillery now in use is in range of Ukrainian drones and that equipment is getting torched every day.

Meanwhile Ukraine has some semblance of air superiority in the Kursk region. They're able to launch glide bombs to great effect against Russian positions.

As long as the west can keep supplying ammo, Russia really doesn't have a chance to remove Ukraine from Kursk.

The upcoming US election is probably going to decide the outcome of this war.
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I hope you are right, but I see real trouble for Ukraine.

The situation is Donbas is nearing a disaster.
The UA junior officer corp has been bleed white. Recruiting is increasingly a problem.
I remain surprised by the UA success on the Kursk front. They are digging in and look to want to extract a price from mobiks and orcs to retake it, but Russia is moving troops from Kaliningrad there. They have upwards of 30k, of which 8k appear combat ready.
Ammo, especially artillery rounds remains under supplied for the Ukrainians.
Ukraine has no where near air superiority, nor the pilots to even operate their assets.
Vlad continues to play the long ground game. If Bunker Boy wins, he can go on the offensive next spring and try to end it.

hope I am wrong all around
 
Batt Boy said:
I hope you are right, but I see real trouble for Ukraine.

The situation is Donbas is nearing a disaster.
The UA junior officer corp has been bleed white. Recruiting is increasingly a problem.
I remain surprised by the UA success on the Kursk front. They are digging in and look to want to extract a price from mobiks and orcs to retake it, but Russia is moving troops from Kaliningrad there. They have upwards of 30k, of which 8k appear combat ready.
Ammo, especially artillery rounds remains under supplied for the Ukrainians.
Ukraine has no where near air superiority, nor the pilots to even operate their assets.
Vlad continues to play the long ground game. If Bunker Boy wins, he can go on the offensive next spring and try to end it.

hope I am wrong all around
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Now you have me musing about a Ukrainian amphibious invasion of Kaliningrad. I know it's stupid, but it put a smile on my face.
 
Ddseddse said:
Now you have me musing about a Ukrainian amphibious invasion of Kaliningrad. I know it's stupid, but it put a smile on my face.
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It should be a free-city, run by the Germans and Poles with significant Baltic input. Tax Free type zone like Hong Kong once was. It could be a great city again, but it needs to be cleaned up significantly. The Russians have dumped a lot there.
 
Batt Boy said:
It should be a free-city, run by the Germans and Poles with significant Baltic input. Tax Free type zone like Hong Kong once was. It could be a great city again, but it needs to be cleaned up significantly. The Russians have dumped a lot there.
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A Russian military city.

That’s going to be equivalent to the worst Superfund site ever times 100.
 
Batt Boy said:
I hope you are right, but I see real trouble for Ukraine.

The situation is Donbas is nearing a disaster.
The UA junior officer corp has been bleed white. Recruiting is increasingly a problem.
I remain surprised by the UA success on the Kursk front. They are digging in and look to want to extract a price from mobiks and orcs to retake it, but Russia is moving troops from Kaliningrad there. They have upwards of 30k, of which 8k appear combat ready.
Ammo, especially artillery rounds remains under supplied for the Ukrainians.
Ukraine has no where near air superiority, nor the pilots to even operate their assets.
Vlad continues to play the long ground game. If Bunker Boy wins, he can go on the offensive next spring and try to end it.

hope I am wrong all around
Click to expand...
You’re over estimating Russian military skills and capabilities. Russia has one skill. Mass a troop advantage of say 7:1, pound defensive lines with artillery and send in frontal assaults. They aren’t able to maneuver or react to anything Ukraine does.

I exaggerated Ukrainian air superiority, but the fact they are able to operate in the Kursk area is a stunning achievement (/failure by Russia)

I’d say this war is still largely a stalemate, Russian size vs Ukraine competency & western arms.

Western arms can be supplied for years (not saying it will). Russian size will collapse on itself at some point.
 
ronjon said:
You’re over estimating Russian military skills and capabilities. Russia has one skill. Mass a troop advantage of say 7:1, pound defensive lines with artillery and send in frontal assaults. They aren’t able to maneuver or react to anything Ukraine does.

I exaggerated Ukrainian air superiority, but the fact they are able to operate in the Kursk area is a stunning achievement (/failure by Russia)

I’d say this war is still largely a stalemate, Russian size vs Ukraine competency & western arms.

Western arms can be supplied for years (not saying it will). Russian size will collapse on itself at some point.
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You are right. One of the reasons Russia took such high casualties in WW2 was using the exact tactic you described. Speaking of Kursk, the largest tank battle ever fought occurred there between the Russians and Germans. The Russians took more casualties, but they still won the battle. In part because they could afford to take the casualties better than the Germans.
 
I'm not overestimating the Russians. They are dreadful at logistics, command and control and combined arms coordination. Bad moral, worse leadership and they aren't defending their homes. Still they are on the move across the Donbas through sheer mass and they are learning how to use their stand off strikes better. They have the will to continue to sacrifice to bleed the UA.
 
Patb78 said:
Forgive my ignorance, but why is it bad for Russia? What is his connection to them?
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She is saying its bad for Russia as Telegram is a popular medium for their propaganda. I'm not sure that is true for while the Russian government likes Telegram, they aren't huge fans of Durov. Durov refused to provide user data to Russian intelligence and Telegram was banned for years in Russia before being reinstated.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
She is saying its bad for Russia as Telegram is a popular medium for their propaganda. I'm not sure that is true for while the Russian government likes Telegram, they aren't huge fans of Durov. Durov refused to provide user data to Russian intelligence and Telegram was banned for years in Russia before being reinstated.
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Thanks.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
She is saying it’s bad for Russia as Telegram is a popular medium for their propaganda. I'm not sure that is true for while the Russian government likes Telegram, they aren't huge fans of Durov. Durov refused to provide user data to Russian intelligence and Telegram was banned for years in Russia before being reinstated.
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When Russia realized banning telegram wasn’t working their foreign intelligence services adopted it, and there are reports that much of the Russian intelligence communications in Europe including coordination of recent sabotage/arson has run through that app.
 


Russian response to Ukrainian push in to Russia is predictable. A massive strike on civilian targets.

One of these hit a hotel in Kyiv killing a Reuters reporter.

One of these hit a dam around Kyiv. If that dam were to fail, the resulting flood would wipe out Kyiv, likely killing hundreds of thousands of civilians. No telling what would happen in that event.
 
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