UNC Men’s Basketball 2025-2026

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Heelsandeers said:
Not sure if you have been following the discussion or the specific metric being discussed

But we’re calling it out because it makes zero sense and no one seems to know how it’s calculated

The actual power rankings (pre-season) have been much more in the line with the results for UNC (and every team) than this “talent” metric we are discussing

Which was first introduced to the thread as support that HD is in fact working with plenty of talent. We are simply saying (whether you agree that he is or is not) that metric isn’t proof of it
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I understand the specific metric being discussed.

My point is that ratings aren’t automatically garbage or useless just because you cherry pick an outlier like Florida being ranked in the 30s last season.
 
Heelsandeers said:
Not sure if you have been following the discussion or the specific metric being discussed

But we’re calling it out because it makes zero sense and no one seems to know how it’s calculated

The actual power rankings (pre-season) have been much more in the line with the results for UNC (and every team) than this “talent” metric we are discussing

Which was first introduced to the thread as support that HD is in fact working with plenty of talent. We are simply saying (whether you agree that he is or is not) that metric isn’t proof of it
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that the talent rating "makes zero sense and no one seems to know how its calculated" is incorrect.

see snoop's post in this thread, #466.

"composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played" certainly isn't perfect but isn't completely nonsensical.

in short, looks like we've had some players that were relatively highly rated recruits that didn't live up to their billing, which may include some bad luck but likely also includes some combination of issues with evaluation, development, coaching, strategy, etc. from HD and staff.
 
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Calheel said:
Power ratings were the only reason we made the tournament last year.
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Ya know, in that comment I also had another point typed out about how our fans hate advanced metrics but conveniently gloss over the fact that they work in our favor last season. I’m kinda over debating this though haha.
 
Peppers49 said:
I understand the specific metric being discussed.

My point is that ratings aren’t automatically garbage or useless just because you cherry pick an outlier like Florida being ranked in the 30s last season.
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Obviously there are going to be outliers. The issue is it has little to no correlation to the predictive metrics (that actually tend to be pretty accurate)

Talent = good players = good teams = winning more games. For the most part

If a talent metric is consistently putting bad or average teams near the top and completely missing on good ones then it isn’t telling us much, if anything useful

4thgenheel said:
that the talent rating "makes zero sense and no one seems to know how its calculated" is incorrect.

see snoop's post in this thread, #466.

"composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played" certainly isn't perfect but isn't completely nonsensical.

in short, looks like we've had some players that were relatively highly rated recruits that didn't live up to their billing, which may include some bad luck but likely also includes some combination of issues with misevaluation, development, coaching, strategy, etc. from HD and staff.
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I saw the post and was including SnoopRob in the no one. That explanation seems to be on the right track

I still need to see whatever math it is that rates 2025 #4 Auburn below #210 Longwood

If those were the results of a metric I created I would probably consider changing it
 
Heelsandeers said:
I saw the post and was including SnoopRob in the no one. That explanation seems to be on the right track

I still need to see whatever math it is that rates 2025 #4 Auburn below #210 Longwood

If those were the results of a metric I created I would probably consider changing it
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i mean.....composite recruit rankings are what they are. maybe he's adding too much weight to the minutes played aspect.

pretty sure that auburn team had a bunch of transfers that pearl plucked from obscurity and junior colleges and whatnot.

i can't figure out how to view past year talent ratings on his site but this year's looks extremely spot-on.....top 10 is all heavyweight programs. hell, the top 50 is all monied, power programs who you figure will have all of the best players. we clock in at 13.
 
4thgenheel said:
i mean.....composite recruit rankings are what they are. maybe he's adding too much weight to the minutes played aspect.

pretty sure that auburn team had a bunch of transfers that pearl plucked from obscurity and junior colleges and whatnot.

i can't figure out how to view past year talent ratings on his site but this year's looks extremely spot-on.....top 10 is all heavyweight programs. hell, the top 50 is all monied, power programs who you figure will have all of the best players. we clock in at 13.
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Dude, did you see my post about this? He had Louisville as the #7 most talented team the year they went 8-24. Notre Dame went 13-20 with the #10 most talent. Now maybe those teams just had epic, epic fails at the same time, but it seems more likely that the unexplained method is just shitty.

"Based on composite recruiting rankings" is not a methodology. It's not meaningful. It's like rating a car and when someone asks you, how did you decide this car was a top 10 vehicle, you say, "based on its performance." That's fine if you explain performance somewhere else; otherwise, it's so vague as to make handwaving seem exact by comparison.

And as another poster pointed out, they had UVa #4 last year. I mean, come on.
 
superrific said:
Dude, did you see my post about this? He had Louisville as the #7 most talented team the year they went 8-24. Notre Dame went 13-20 with the #10 most talent. Now maybe those teams just had epic, epic fails at the same time, but it seems more likely that the unexplained method is just shitty.

"Based on composite recruiting rankings" is not a methodology. It's not meaningful. It's like rating a car and when someone asks you, how did you decide this car was a top 10 vehicle, you say, "based on its performance." That's fine if you explain performance somewhere else; otherwise, it's so vague as to make handwaving seem exact by comparison.

And as another poster pointed out, they had UVa #4 last year. I mean, come on.
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yeah, some of these outliers tell me that perhaps the way he's weighting things needs to be tweaked.

using a composite recruit ranking is a thing that makes sense and is fair. recruiting services consensus index (RSCI) accounts for all of the recruiting service rankings: Men's Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) Rankings - 2025 | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

what we don't know is how he's weighting that vs. minutes played and as i said, perhaps he's giving too much weight to minutes played by players who aren't all that good. hence some teams that ended up being really poor being ranked way too high in his talent rating.
 
rodoheel said:
IMO five seasons is more than enough patience. Matt Doherty got three seasons before he was canned. Arguably last season should have gotten Hubert canned. Candidly I think that he would have been canned if not for two specific wins from his first season - winning @ Duke in Coach K's final home game and beating Duke in the FF. I don't mean to suggest that those wins weren't important - they were two of the most important wins in the history of the program - but just to note that aside from those two wins it's not easy to defend Hubert's coaching tenue at UNC on the merits.

if we have another substandard season this year I simply can't see any reasonable argument that Hubert has given us reason to think he can build us back into an elite program. Again, five years is plenty of time. The changing landscape is undoubtedly making things more difficult, but other coaches at other programs are dealing with the game thing and succeeding, and our standard for success at UNC is justifiably high.
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Agree that this year is do or die, we have to be more than simply a tournament team this year.

Not sure the Doh comparison is good as Davis doesn't seem to have the people issues that he had.
 
Auburn is an interesting example because they had a lot of productive veteran players who weren't highly rated recruits

They also didn't have zero players who were top 100. Pettiford and I believe Miles Kelly were 4 star guys

So for them to end up in the same range as objectively bad and un-talented teams doesn't make any sense

The Louisville, UVA, and Notre Dame outliers are crazy. I don't see how you arrive at that given any criteria

It didn't even pick up on Louisville's clearly better and more talented team going into last season
 
duluoz said:
And what happens otherwise?

HD out, you say. So then who’s your shoo-in to bring back the “UNC standard,” which is an idea from a college sports environment that no longer exists?

Not enough people are asking the right questions IMO. They just selfishly and impatiently want their glory days back, and even feel entitled to them. And that sentiment is going to do a whole lot more to dismantle what Dean and Roy have built than they seem to be grasping. And far more to dismantle it than a few middling seasons under HD would do.
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With the current environment I'm not sure the Dean Smith standard is achievable any longer. It appears that most 5 star high school recruits are willing to simply develop. It's pay me, start day 1, and go pro or transfer.

I don't believe we are fully into this new era and how to succeed.
 
4thgenheel said:
yeah, some of these outliers tell me that perhaps the way he's weighting things needs to be tweaked.

using a composite recruit ranking is a thing that makes sense and is fair. recruiting services consensus index (RSCI) accounts for all of the recruiting service rankings: Men's Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) Rankings - 2025 | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

what we don't know is how he's weighting that vs. minutes played and as i said, perhaps he's giving too much weight to minutes played by players who aren't all that good. hence some teams that ended up being really poor being ranked way too high in his talent rating.
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The minutes played adjustment is based on projections.

You are giving this guy a benefit of the doubt he doesn't deserve. That effective talent column is just garbage. Better to assume it's random or worse than being somewhat off on fine-tuning. If he were to explain his method at all, fine. But shit kept under wraps is even more likely to be shit.
 
UNCatTech said:
Agree that this year is do or die, we have to be more than simply a tournament team this year.

Not sure the Doh comparison is good as Davis doesn't seem to have the people issues that he had.
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Yeah, I've thought since the end of last season that this year was it for Davis - either he turns things around and we have a very successful season (consistently in the Top 20 and make Top 10 by end of the year, finish in Top 2 or 3 of ACC, and make a real run in the NCAA Tournament) or he was out at the end of the year. I really like him and hope he succeeds, but if we struggle again this year and barely make the tourney then it's going to be very hard to justify keeping him. What worries me is that, if he is let go at the end of the year, then I have very little faith in the people who will likely make the decisions on a new coach (I think Bubba will make a serious coaching search, but based on the football coaching search I don't think he'll be allowed to be the main voice and force in picking a new coach). Based on their performance in the football search, I could see the current UNC powers-that-be trying to lure 70-year-old Tom Izzo here.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Yeah, I've thought since the end of last season that this year was it for Davis - either he turns things around and we have a very successful season (consistently in the Top 20 and make Top 10 by end of the year, finish in Top 2 or 3 of ACC, and make a real run in the NCAA Tournament) or he was out at the end of the year. I really like him and hope he succeeds, but if we struggle again this year and barely make the tourney then it's going to be very hard to justify keeping him. What worries me is that, if he is let go at the end of the year, then I have very little faith in the people who will likely make the decisions on a new coach (I think Bubba will make a serious coaching search, but based on the football coaching search I don't think he'll be allowed to be the main voice and force in picking a new coach). Based on their performance in the football search, I could see the current UNC powers-that-be trying to lure 70-year-old Tom Izzo here.
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Nah, it would have to be an old MAGA dude for the BOT and Chancellor to want him.
 
So if I’m not mistaken, this season’s UNC basketball team will have only one McDonald’s AA on the roster. That would be the first time since the first McDonald’s AAs played college ball in the 1977-78 season that UNC has had less than 2 McDonald’s AAs on the roster. Here are the McDonald’s AAs each year:

1978: Al Wood, Pete Budko
1979: Al Wood, Pete Budko
1980: Al Wood, Pete Budko, James Worthy, Jim Braddock
1981: Al Wood, Pete Budko, James Worthy, Jim Braddock, Sam Perkins, Matt Doherty
1982: James Worthy, Jim Braddock, Sam Perkins, Michael Jordan, Buzz Peterson
1983: Jim Braddock, Sam Perkins, Matt Doherty, Michael Jordan, Buzz Peterson, Brad Daugherty, Curtis Hunter
1984: Sam Perkins, Matt Doherty, Michael Jordan, Buzz Peterson, Brad Daugherty, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson (Curtis Hunter redshirted)
1985: Buzz Peterson, Brad Daugherty, Curtis Hunter, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson
1986: Brad Daugherty, Curtis Hunter, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson, Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, Kevin Madden
1987: Curtis Hunter, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson, Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, J.R. Reid, Scott Williams (Kevin Madden and Pete Chilcutt redshirted)
1988: Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, Kevin Madden, J.R. Reid, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice
1989: Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, Kevin Madden, J.R. Reid, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice
1990: Kevin Madden, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice, George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom
1991: Pete Chilcutt, King Rice, George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Clifford Rozier
1992: George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Donald Williams
1993: George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Donald Williams (Serge Zwikker redshirted)
1994: Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Donald Williams, Serge Zwikker, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, Jeff McInnis
1995: Donald Williams, Serge Zwikker, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, Jeff McInnis
1996: Serge Zwikker, Jeff McInnis, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter
1997: Serge Zwikker, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Ed Cota, Vasco Evtimov
1998: Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Ed Cota, Brendan Haywood (Vasco Evtimov fulfilled his French military duties that season)
1999: Ed Cota, Vasco Evtimov, Brendan Haywood, Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Ronald Curry
2000: Ed Cota, Brendan Haywood, Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Joseph Forte (Ronald Curry redshirted)
2001: Brendan Haywood, Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Ronald Curry, Joseph Forte (Neil Fingleton redshirted)
2002: Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Neil Fingleton, Jawad Williams
2003: Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May
2004: Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May
2005: Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May, Marvin Williams
2006: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor
2007: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Brandan Wright, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington
2008: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington
2009: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew II
2010: Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew II, John Henson, Dexter Strickland, David Wear, Travis Wear
2011: Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew II (until he quit), John Henson, Dexter Strickland, Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, Kendall Marshall
2012: Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Dexter Strickland, Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, Kendall Marshall, James Michael McAdoo, P.J. Hairston
2013: Dexter Strickland, Reggie Bullock, James Michael McAdoo, P.J. Hairston, Marcus Paige
2014: James Michael McAdoo, Marcus Paige, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks (P.J.
Hairston was initially on the roster but did not play in any games due to receiving improper benefits and then was kicked off the team)
2015: Marcus Paige, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry
2016: Marcus Paige, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry
2017: Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry, Tony Bradley
2018: Joel Berry, Theo Pinson
2019: Nassir Little, Coby White
2020: Cole Anthony, Armando Bacot
2021: Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, Day’Ron Sharpe, Walker Kessler, R.J. Davis
2022: Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, R.J. Davis
2023: Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, R.J. Davis
2024: Armando Bacot, R.J. Davis, Harrison Ingram
2025: R.J. Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell
2026: Caleb Wilson
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Yeah, I've thought since the end of last season that this year was it for Davis - either he turns things around and we have a very successful season (consistently in the Top 20 and make Top 10 by end of the year, finish in Top 2 or 3 of ACC, and make a real run in the NCAA Tournament) or he was out at the end of the year. I really like him and hope he succeeds, but if we struggle again this year and barely make the tourney then it's going to be very hard to justify keeping him. What worries me is that, if he is let go at the end of the year, then I have very little faith in the people who will likely make the decisions on a new coach (I think Bubba will make a serious coaching search, but based on the football coaching search I don't think he'll be allowed to be the main voice and force in picking a new coach). Based on their performance in the football search, I could see the current UNC powers-that-be trying to lure 70-year-old Tom Izzo here.
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We can keep it in the family and bring in a Hall of Famer.

Larry Brown is only 85 and George Karl is a young 74!
 
Icky Mettle said:
So if I’m not mistaken, this season’s UNC basketball team will have only one McDonald’s AA on the roster. That would be the first time since the first McDonald’s AAs played college ball in the 1977-78 season that UNC has had less than 2 McDonald’s AAs on the roster. Here are the McDonald’s AAs each year:

1978: Al Wood, Pete Budko
1979: Al Wood, Pete Budko
1980: Al Wood, Pete Budko, James Worthy, Jim Braddock
1981: Al Wood, Pete Budko, James Worthy, Jim Braddock, Sam Perkins, Matt Doherty
1982: James Worthy, Jim Braddock, Sam Perkins, Michael Jordan, Buzz Peterson
1983: Jim Braddock, Sam Perkins, Matt Doherty, Michael Jordan, Buzz Peterson, Brad Daugherty, Curtis Hunter
1984: Sam Perkins, Matt Doherty, Michael Jordan, Buzz Peterson, Brad Daugherty, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson (Curtis Hunter redshirted)
1985: Buzz Peterson, Brad Daugherty, Curtis Hunter, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson
1986: Brad Daugherty, Curtis Hunter, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson, Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, Kevin Madden
1987: Curtis Hunter, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson, Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, J.R. Reid, Scott Williams (Kevin Madden and Pete Chilcutt redshirted)
1988: Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, Kevin Madden, J.R. Reid, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice
1989: Jeff Lebo, Steve Bucknall, Kevin Madden, J.R. Reid, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice
1990: Kevin Madden, Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice, George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom
1991: Pete Chilcutt, King Rice, George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Clifford Rozier
1992: George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Donald Williams
1993: George Lynch, Matt Wenstrom, Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Donald Williams (Serge Zwikker redshirted)
1994: Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Donald Williams, Serge Zwikker, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, Jeff McInnis
1995: Donald Williams, Serge Zwikker, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, Jeff McInnis
1996: Serge Zwikker, Jeff McInnis, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter
1997: Serge Zwikker, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Ed Cota, Vasco Evtimov
1998: Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Ed Cota, Brendan Haywood (Vasco Evtimov fulfilled his French military duties that season)
1999: Ed Cota, Vasco Evtimov, Brendan Haywood, Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Ronald Curry
2000: Ed Cota, Brendan Haywood, Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Joseph Forte (Ronald Curry redshirted)
2001: Brendan Haywood, Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Ronald Curry, Joseph Forte (Neil Fingleton redshirted)
2002: Jason Capel, Kris Lang, Neil Fingleton, Jawad Williams
2003: Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May
2004: Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May
2005: Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May, Marvin Williams
2006: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor
2007: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Brandan Wright, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington
2008: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington
2009: Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew II
2010: Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew II, John Henson, Dexter Strickland, David Wear, Travis Wear
2011: Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew II (until he quit), John Henson, Dexter Strickland, Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, Kendall Marshall
2012: Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Dexter Strickland, Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, Kendall Marshall, James Michael McAdoo, P.J. Hairston
2013: Dexter Strickland, Reggie Bullock, James Michael McAdoo, P.J. Hairston, Marcus Paige
2014: James Michael McAdoo, Marcus Paige, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks (P.J.
Hairston was initially on the roster but did not play in any games due to receiving improper benefits and then was kicked off the team)
2015: Marcus Paige, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry
2016: Marcus Paige, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry
2017: Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry, Tony Bradley
2018: Joel Berry, Theo Pinson
2019: Nassir Little, Coby White
2020: Cole Anthony, Armando Bacot
2021: Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, Day’Ron Sharpe, Walker Kessler, R.J. Davis
2022: Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, R.J. Davis
2023: Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, R.J. Davis
2024: Armando Bacot, R.J. Davis, Harrison Ingram
2025: R.J. Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell
2026: Caleb Wilson
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Seems sobering… but how many Mickey D’s were on last years title winner? How many on the title team the year before that?
What’s the average number of McDonald’s AA’s on an NCAA championship team? 2? 3? 4? Or perhaps only one?
What was the last team to win it all which had zero McDonald’s AA on the roster?
Do you have to have a McDonald AA on the squad to get a top 4 seed?
 
Centerpiece said:
Seems sobering… but how many Mickey D’s were on last years title winner? How many on the title team the year before that?
What’s the average number of McDonald’s AA’s on an NCAA championship team? 2? 3? 4? Or perhaps only one?
What was the last team to win it all which had zero McDonald’s AA on the roster?
Do you have to have a McDonald AA on the squad to get a top 4 seed?
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It in part reflects that MCDs are a less important part of team construction in 2025. Henri and Luka weren’t eligible for that game but will be bigger contributors this year than most MCD alumni in college.
 
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