UNC ONLY BASKETBALL 2024-25 SEASON

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superrific said:
Yeah, I think that's part of the "ceiling is two wins" idea. It's hard to imagine the team putting together three straight good games against good competition.
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I guess it depends whether the ceiling is the roof.

The ceiling strikes me as something basically at the tail end of the probability curve, at least two standard deviations to the right. I think we could certainly get hot with the talent we have and get to the Elite Eight. That is probably where I would draw the ceiling line.

The floor is obviously coming home tonight.

Per Bartorvoik, we have played as the 14th best team in the country since Feb 16th. Obviously, that is mostly against bad teams, but efficiency projects that beating Va Tech by 32 in Blacksburg equates to comfortably beating SDSU and Ole Miss. The question is whether we can only play like the 14th best team against bad teams or whether we can do it against 20-50 range teams. I think we can.
 
It is a good year when you win more games in the NCAA than you lose
Lets win 2 and go from there
 
Calheel said:
I guess it depends whether the ceiling is the roof.

The ceiling strikes me as something basically at the tail end of the probability curve, at least two standard deviations to the right. I think we could certainly get hot with the talent we have and get to the Elite Eight. That is probably where I would draw the ceiling line.

The floor is obviously coming home tonight.

Per Bartorvoik, we have played as the 14th best team in the country since Feb 16th. Obviously, that is mostly against bad teams, but efficiency projects that beating Va Tech by 32 in Blacksburg equates to comfortably beating SDSU and Ole Miss. The question is whether we can only play like the 14th best team against bad teams or whether we can do it against 20-50 range teams. I think we can.
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Why draw the line at the Elite 8? What if we play St. Mary's again?

I won't argue with your definition of "ceiling" but I think you're taking it more seriously than the poster intended. It's true that he could have said, "a reasonable ceiling" but it's also true that he's not trained in law and thus lacks that particular stick up his ass.

I think you're right in your contention, and that the other poster was also right in their contention, because you're pretty much saying the same thing with different levels of precision.
 
superrific said:
Why draw the line at the Elite 8? What if we play St. Mary's again?

I won't argue with your definition of "ceiling" but I think you're taking it more seriously than the poster intended. It's true that he could have said, "a reasonable ceiling" but it's also true that he's not trained in law and thus lacks that particular stick up his ass.

I think you're right in your contention, and that the other poster was also right in their contention, because you're pretty much saying the same thing with different levels of precision.
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You mean St. Peters?

It is certainly possible to go from the play-in to the Final Four. VCU and UCLA have both done it. I don't see us getting by Auburn, but it is also possible that Auburn gets upset like Kentucky in 22.
 
Calheel said:
Per Bartorvoik, we have played as the 14th best team in the country since Feb 16th. Obviously, that is mostly against bad teams, but efficiency projects that beating Va Tech by 32 in Blacksburg equates to comfortably beating SDSU and Ole Miss. The question is whether we can only play like the 14th best team against bad teams or whether we can do it against 20-50 range teams. I think we can.
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I'm not familiar with the data about efficiency translation in college ball. In the pros, I think it's generally accepted that teams tend to perform similarly against different opponents (relative to the opponents' records). But the gap between best and worst in the NBA is much smaller than the gap between teams in college.

Intuitively, I just think it can't be true, at least not in college. I'm reminded of some of the games started by Aaron Boone. We had trouble getting the ball into the frontcourt. Blake and Dixon, for instance, just dominated defensively. There had to be a qualitative difference in performance when the team can get into an offensive set and when it is dribbling at half court with the back to the basket after 15 seconds of possession.
 
Calheel said:
You mean St. Peters?

It is certainly possible to go from the play-in to the Final Four. VCU and UCLA have both done it. I don't see us getting by Auburn, but it is also possible that Auburn gets upset like Kentucky in 22.
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Yes, St. Peters.
 
superrific said:
I'm not familiar with the data about efficiency translation in college ball. In the pros, I think it's generally accepted that teams tend to perform similarly against different opponents (relative to the opponents' records). But the gap between best and worst in the NBA is much smaller than the gap between teams in college.

Intuitively, I just think it can't be true, at least not in college. I'm reminded of some of the games started by Aaron Boone. We had trouble getting the ball into the frontcourt. Blake and Dixon, for instance, just dominated defensively. There had to be a qualitative difference in performance when the team can get into an offensive set and when it is dribbling at half court with the back to the basket after 15 seconds of possession.
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First, our PG back on the 2002 team was Adam Boone. Aaron Boone is a former MLB player and the current manager of the Yankees. We might have been better off with Aaron as our PG.

Second, according to KenPom, Maryland was the 3rd best team in the nation in 2002 with a NetRating of +29.25. Carolina was 137th with a NetRating of +2.53. If you dig even further beyond those topline metrics, you'd see that KenPom shows that the strength of the Terps were their guards and that guards were our biggest weakness. Qualitative metrics in 2002 certainly predicted that we would struggle against Maryland and that, in particular, our guards would struggle against their guards.
 
Calheel said:
We had a very legit chance to beat 2 seed MSU, 1 seed Florida, and 1 seed Duke. I don’t see how you can assume that our ceiling is losing to a weakened Iowa State team.

The reality is that we are unlikely to go far because of inconsistency and lineup/coaching challenges. That said, this team’s ceiling is pretty high given its comeback ability against elite teams.
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Actually, what I was saying was that the ceiling is beating ISU, but losing in Sweet 16. Feel pretty good about that prediction.

We have been playing better since the lineup change, aside from the two duke losses (one of which was very disappointing).
 
CRHeel94 said:
Actually, what I was saying was that the ceiling is beating ISU, but losing in Sweet 16. Feel pretty good about that prediction.

We have been playing better since the lineup change, aside from the two duke losses (one of which was very disappointing).
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Wouldn’t a ceiling be above what you are predicting?

I predicted us to lose to Iowa State but I believe our ceiling is beating ISU and MSU.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Getting caught up on semantics.

Think we could beat ISU. Don't think we have a shot to beat MSU.
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Huh? How could you possibly think we don't have a shot to beat MSU? We should have beat them in Maui but for a blown layup.

Both teams have gotten better since then, but to say we don't have a shot? Wow.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Actually, what I was saying was that the ceiling is beating ISU, but losing in Sweet 16. Feel pretty good about that prediction.

We have been playing better since the lineup change, aside from the two duke losses (one of which was very disappointing).
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Calheel said:
Wouldn’t a ceiling be above what you are predicting?

I predicted us to lose to Iowa State but I believe our ceiling is beating ISU and MSU.
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The ceiling is the roof!
 
Ceiling is reaching the Final Four. UNC can beat Ole Miss and ISU (if we play well) and we've already proven we can play even with MSU. Plus, Izzo just loves facing UNC in the NCAA tourney :) If we play the Spartans, make sure Hans is calling the game with Jones.
 
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